The unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers are back on the road, set to take on the 1-2 Indianapolis Colts for Week Four. Let’s dive right into the matchup.
QUARTERBACKS – Colts Anthony Richardson is a talented young player who presents a big challenge as a dual-threat guy. As a passer, 36/73 for a 49.3 completion rate, the latter the worst among 35 QBs with 30 attempts or more. 583 passing yards (23rd) and 3/6 TD/INT ratio (T-33rd).
In comparison, Steeler Justin Fields is 55/75 with a 73.3 completion rate (seventh), 517 passing yards (27th), and a 2/1 TD/INT ratio (T-17th). Fields has been far more efficient, while the Indianapolis pass game has been a more risk-to-reward approach and explosive. However, Richardson’s six interceptions lead the league with six interceptions against Pittsburgh’s defense (T-fourth most).
Air yardage jumps out in the matchup, and here are QBs completed and intended air yards this year through three games:
Richardson substantially tops both stats through three games, with a 9.7 CAY and 12.6 IAY. For context, the second-most in each were 9.2 and 10.0, pointing to gunslinging more than his peers so far. This also adds context to his lowest completion rate, but the deeper passing challenge they present to the Steelers’ defense.
We also see Fields’ higher efficiency coming on below-average air yards, which makes sense. A 4.7 CAY ranks 18th, and his 5.9 IAY 31st which is fifth-least (31st). Quite different air yardage for the QBs to say the least, and will be fascinating to watch play out on Sunday.
Now for mobility. Here are the leading rushers at the position so far in 2024:
Richardson rounds out the top five in this regard, compared to eighth for Fields, despite not having to use his legs much. Each has one rushing TD and two fumbles. Taking care of the football has leaned in Pittsburgh’s favor so far in 2021, including fumble luck, which hopefully continues.
Richardson has six runs of ten yards or more (T-third), while Fields has two (T-15th). Keeping this bottled up, along with their entire run game, is always a high priority and looms large in hopes of another Steelers victory.
RUNNING BACKS – Jonathan Taylor is extremely talented in the Colts backfield. He has 51 attempts as their work-horse, tied for tenth-most, with only one other rusher having carries through Week Three (Trey Sermon, four attempts).
Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris has even more carries at 55 (sixth), with a committee behind him: Jaylen Warren (14) and Cordarrelle Patterson (ten). Big news on Friday though, Warren is ruled out for the game after leaving last week’s contest (knee), so Harris will need to step up without their one-two punch.
Let’s look at rushing yards and TD leaders so far this season:
Taylor has done more on fewer carries, well above average, particularly with three rushing TDs (T-fifth) and 261 rush yards (seventh). Vital to the scoreboard and averaged a successful play with 5.1 yards per attempt (ninth). All top ten marks among 41 RBs (min. 20 attempts).
Harris hasn’t seen the end zone yet. While points have improved on offense each game, hoping this changes Week Four with no TDs from the position currently. His 209 rush yards rank 11th, but much lower 3.8 yards per attempt (T-31st) than Taylor.
The Steelers’ ground game has nice moments but lacked consistency. The defensive matchup leads to some optimism for me in these terms and more.
DEFENSE – The Steelers’ dominant defense through Week 3 is looking to keep it rolling, and check out that link for some encouraging visuals of how impressive the start of 2024 has been. Here’s a rank breakdown of the two defenses in the matchup from that study:
PITTSBURGH – Rush Attempts (3rd), Rush Yards (3rd), Rush TDs (1st), 3rd Down Conversion Rate (1st), Red Zone Conversion Rate (1st), ANY/A (T-3rd), PPG (1st).
INDIANAPOLIS – Rush Attempts (32nd), Rush Yards (31st), Rush TDs (T-2nd), 3rd Down Conversion Rate (28th), Red Zone Conversion Rate (T-26th), ANY/A (19th), PPG (T-13th).
On paper, Pittsburgh has fared much better, ranking in the top three across these important stats. The Colts have faced the most rushing attempts and allowed the second most yardage to their first three opponents, which is music to what Pittsburgh wants to hear and do, first and foremost, on offense.
Also appetizing in Steelers lenses is Indianapolis’ conversions allowed: fifth-worst on third down and T-26th in the red zone. A strength is limiting rushing TDs, with Pittsburgh hoping to break the dam and that narrative. The Colts are above average in PPG, but no match for the Steelers’ fantastic 8.7 that leads the league, and are below average in the all-important ANY/A stat.
The Colts are also reeling on the injury report, particularly on defense. Several key contributors, including DeForest Buckner to IR (ankle), and most recently, CB Kenny Moore and DL Kwity Paye for this game. That is huge, along with two questionable on the other side of the trenches.
OFFENSIVE LINES – The Colts have a fantastic group, all above average in PFF grades through Week Three:
Here’s how they stack up and rank across the league by position (min. 25 snaps):
LT Bernhard Raimann: 83.5 PBLK (8th/86), 71.6 RBLK (25th).
LG Quenton Nelson: 90.1 PBLK (1st/78), 82.7 RBLK (4th).
C Ryan Kelly (questionable – neck): 73.4 PBLK (11th/36), 68.2 RBLK (16th).
RG Will Fries: 80.3 RBLK (8th/78), 76.3 PBLK (19th).
RT Braden Smith (questionable – knee): 79.3 RBLK (8th/86), 75.1 PBLK (20th).
Nelson is an all-pro talent that’s an elite challenge for Pittsburgh’s defense and another guard that each graded in the top ten as run blockers, which their RT Smith (questionable) has accomplished too. Their lowest rank across the board is 25th, Raimann’s RBLK.
That’s a big matchup with Steeler EDGE Alex Highsmith out (groin), and Nick Herbig set to take on a larger role rather than his fantastic quality-over-quantity contributions in his young career. Best unit Pittsburgh’s defense has faced barring injury, and will be huge in the outcome.
PITTSBURGH OL –
LT Dan Moore: 71.0 RBLK (26th/86), 67.4 PBLK (T-40th).
LG: Spencer Anderson: 59.7 PBLK (53rd/78), 50.9 RBLK (70th).
C Zach Frazier: 78.5 RBLK (7th/36). 57.7 PBLK (25th).
RG James Daniels: 92.9 RBLK (1st/78), 65.7 PBLK (T-37th).
RT Broderick Jones: 59.6 PBLK (57th/86), 46.4 RBLK (80th).
RT Troy Fautanu (55 snaps): 69.3 PBLK (34th/86), 59.3 RBLK (T-51st).
G/T eligible Mason McCormick (25 snaps): 82.6 PBLK (4th/78), 52.0 RBLK (66th).
Largely uninspiring in comparison. The best news in these terms in Daniels RBLK, best among guards displaying more tenacious run blocking this season. Moore is the other Steeler to land above average in both, and Frazier’s grade and run blocking as a rookie have been a joy to watch.
After Fautanu’s unfortunate long-term injury, McCormick rotated in at guard and tackle eligible his first game. He graded fourth-best pass blocker, while RBLK was lower than anticipated with a stronger day IMO. LG Isaac Seumalo returned to practice but is doubtful (pec) to return to the starting lineup for his 2024 debut yet.
Anderson and Jones have been the weak links, with the former starting every game this year at LG. It will be interesting to see if McCormick gets more burn or perhaps the start. Jones has the lowest individual grade in the outlook (seventh-worst 46.4 RBLK). Knock on wood for a positive trend for them, contributing to the needed improvements in consistency,
TIGHT END – Pittsburgh has utilized the position in the passing game the most. Namely, Pat Freiermuth, who now has 13 targets (T-ninth), 12 catches (T-seventh), a 92.3 catch rate (T-14th), 99 yards (13th), and no TDs out of 73 qualifiers. Hoping for his first score of 2024. Colts Kylen Granson is their leading receiver, but just four targets (T-46th), two catches (T-52nd) for a 50.0 completion rate (T-57th), 49 yards (33rd), and no TDs.
Granson leads qualifiers with 24.5 yards per catch, along with teammate Mo Alie-Cox having a 22-yard reception on his lone catch (two targets). Richardson’s air yardage seems to make sense of it all, but looking at yards after catch (YAC) point tells a different story.
Here is TE YAC this season, and also wanted to learn about TE room’s utilization with inline rates through Week Three:
Right away, we see the Indianapolis TEs have clearly been stronger in YAC, all above average, compared to Pittsburgh’s on the other end of the mean. Yes, part of this is fewer targets for Indianapolis TEs but it also highlights important value they’ve provided that could be a challenge.
Granson leads the league with 15.0 YAC, along with Alie-Cox tying for third at 11.0 on his catch. Andrew Ogletree is also above the mean as well, but lower 6.0 YAC (T-16th) on his lone catch. The inline rates point to Granson’s receiver role, with the lowest 27.3 inline rate of the matchup that’s tenth-least among his peers.
Freiermuth clearly plays that role for Pittsburgh, filling the second-receiver duties as opposed to a WR2. His 31.7 inline rate ties for 14th-least (59th), playing more off the line including the fourth-highest 25.6 wide out rate.
Big difference is Freiermuth lands slightly below the mean YAC, with a 4.3 number that ties for 37th. MyCole Pruitt (out–knee) and Darnell Washington each land towards the bottom of the YAC results, with the latter’s 0.5 number tying for second least. An encouraging caveat is Washington’s red zone TD, the only score from a TE in the matchup.
Seeing his utilization is expected, with an 84.6 inline rate (eighth-most) given his primary role as a blocker. Interestingly, sandwiched around Washington are two Colts, with Alie-Cox at an 86.7 inline rate (seventh), and Ogletree at 76.5 (ninth). Close in the top ten ranks, but quite a difference in rates, pointing to Alie-Cox and Washington among the most inline TEs of 2024.
WIDE RECEIVERS – Indianapolis has a good group led by Michael Pittman. He has 20 targets (T-26th), 11 catches (T-36th), but a 55.0 catch rate (T-59th) out of 77 qualifiers (min. ten targets), re-emphasizing connection issues. 88 yards (12th-least) and no TDs to date also stick out in a less-than-desirable start, but shouldn’t be underestimated.
Alec Pierce has had a nice 2024, with 12 targets (T-65th), nine catches (T-56th) for the strongest 75.0 catch rate of the outlook (T-16th). 225 receiving yards (tenth) stand out, along with two receiving TDs (T-ninth). But a league-leading 25.0 yards per catch that’s highlighted their pass game and included a triple-explosive 60-yard touchdown bomb is a scary thought.
Their third WR with double-digit targets (ten) is rookie second-round pick Adonai Mitchell. His stats look downright ugly overall, with just two catches for an abysmal 20.0 catch rate that is both dead-last among qualifiers. Only charted for one drop, though, so the biggest culprit in connection with Richardson. 32 yards (second-least) and no TDs as well.
Let’s look at intended air yards to gain receiving context to their explosive passing game, along with catch rates:
Here, we see Pierce as a positive outlier on the chart, also leading NFL WRs with a whopping 22.5 IAY. Then we see when Richardson and Mitchell did connect, it was for the third-most 20.1 IAY. The numbers have really added valuable context to how their deep passing game has been divvied out.
Pittsburgh’s George Pickens is their lone qualifier, pointing to the top-heaviness of the room. 18 targets (T-33rd), 13 catches (T-23rd), 72.2 catch rate (21st), and 171 yards (24th) in a good start to his third season. He’s another Steeler vying for his first TD (fingers crossed). Above the mean WR on the chart, much closer to it than Pierce, though, particularly his 11.6 IAY. Quality number, though (27th), considering his fuller route tree this year.
Pittman is their most experienced and varied route runner but lands below average on the visual. His 10.0 IAY ranks 41st, and will be interesting to see if the 55.0 catch rate improves. That was the case last game when Pittman caught 80 percent (4/5) of his passes from Richardson. Pittman’s game impact seems under-discussed this week, especially with the hope to bottle up their deep pass game and the run, another challenge Pittsburgh’s defense will hopefully styme.
The stats, how things have transpired, and injuries all tip in the Steelers’ favor. Here’s to hoping that’s the case against Indianapolis on Sunday.
Opponent-Scouting-Reports: Offense Defense
Injury-Reports: Steelers Colts
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