As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 4 contest against the Indianapolis Colts.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Minkah Fitzpatrick Plays Minkah-Ball
Our X-Factor for this game, Fitzpatrick has had a fine season and quarterbacks have been smart enough to avoid testing him. But Colts’ QB Anthony Richardson is more risk-adverse, as up-down as any quarterback in football. He trusts his arm to make throws from and to any area of the field. But that confidence has bled into arrogance and led to a league-leading six interceptions, including multiple overthrows or just terrible decisions. It’s up to Fitzpatrick to make him pay. Who wins here, Richardson’s arm talent or Fitzpatrick’s football IQ, could determine this one.
2. George Pickens Wins Vertically
Under DC Gus Bradley, the Colts are a zone-heavy, single-high type of defense, especially one early downs. They like to roll the strong safety into the box and stuff the run. That creates 1-on-1 opportunities on the outside. With Indy’s secondary hurting, Pickens should have chances downfield. And I’d expect the Steelers to test it throughout the game in a game plan that will feel similar to the Broncos’ game.
3. Secondary Swarms, Tackles Jonathan Taylor
While Pittsburgh’s run defense has been excellent three games in, Indianapolis will be a tough task. The Colts’ line is built to run block and Taylor is a supremely talented runner with every trait you look for. Size, power, burst, vision. That makes it an 11-man job to slow him down. The Steelers’ secondary has tackled really well but there’s no guarantee that carries over. They have to keep showing the right technique and want-to.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Colts Hit Enough Chunk Plays
In some respects, the Colts match up well against the Steelers. With their big-play ability, they don’t need to use methodical 10-play drives against Pittsburgh’s stout defense. They can get it all in a play. If Richardson can hit the long ball, the Colts can score in an instant, something no opposing team has done against Pittsburgh yet. That could make the Steelers uncomfortable and playing from behind more than they have.
2. Indy’s Receivers Overwhelm Steelers Secondary
Similar to the first point, this is the best and deepest group of wide receivers the Steelers have faced. The Colts feature a top four of Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, A.D. Mitchell, and Josh Downs. CB Donte Jackson will have to keep playing well while NCB Beanie Bishop Jr. could see a ton of targets in this one, especially versus Downs and Pittman in the slot.
3. Pittsburgh Runs Into A Wall
No question Pittsburgh wants to keep running the ball at will but the Colts, even without DT DeForest Buckner, are a challenge up the gut. NT Grover Stewart is an underrated run stuffer. The Steelers can find more success on gap schemes and perimeter runs, I’d even get the receiver run game going a bit in this one, but if Pittsburgh relies too much on inside zone and duo, they could have an inefficient day.
Prediction
Steelers: 23
Colts: 17
Steelers Season Prediction Record
2-1
