Justin Fields completed a statistically impressive 17 of his 23 pass attempts (73.9%) against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1. This seems like a major improvement for Fields, who is a career 60.7% passer, but a closer examination of his passing chart reveals that completion percentage doesn’t tell the whole story.
As the chart shows, Fields attempted just four passes more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, and he didn’t throw a single pass over the middle of the field.
“I did see the passing chart,” Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wrote during his weekly Steelers chat. “It looked very familiar. Dare I say, it looked like a Kenny Pickett passing chart. I looked at it and knew exactly where all three of Pickens’ catches were on the field because they were the only ones that were 10 yards or more down the field. As he gets more comfortable in the offense maybe the Steelers will give Fields a little more freedom in the passing game, but he’s not a polished intermediate passer, and he definitely struggled throwing over the middle of the field in training camp. After seeing that in Latrobe why would they attempt to do it in games?”
When the Steelers fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada and acquired Justin Fields and Russell Wilson, the last thing Steelers fans wanted to hear was a comparison to Kenny Pickett’s passing chart. Canada and the Steelers were criticized for the lack of diversity in their passing attack and their failure to target the middle of the field on pass plays. Instead, they opted for frequent short passes outside the numbers mixed with occasional deep balls down the sideline. As expected, they sported one of the worst passing attacks in the league for several years.
Arthur Smith was brought in to rebuild a broken offense, so it’s definitely fair to look at Justin Fields’ passing chart against the Atlanta Falcons and get some mild PTSD from the Canada-Pickett era.
However, the situation deserves more context. The Falcons flaunt one of the best safety-duos in the NFL with Jessie Bates III and Justin Simmons. Both players were second-team All-Pro in 2023, and they are fantastic at baiting quarterbacks into throws over the middle and jumping them for interceptions. With Fields being named the starter fairly late last week, it’s understandable that the Steelers simplified the offensive game plan and prioritized avoiding the two safeties.
It wasn’t always pretty on offense. In fact, there were a lot of ugly moments in Fields’ debut, including some missed open receivers over the middle. Our own Alex Kozora evaluated the good and bad from Fields’ debut in this video.
While the passing chart resembled some of Pickett’s charts from years past, it’s important to note several differences in Fields’ production. First, Fields completed three of his four attempts that were over 10 yards — two going for over 30 yards — and it could’ve been four if George Pickens wasn’t called for a nitpicky offensive pass interference on a 36-yard beauty down the sideline. His deep balls looked great, as opposed to Pickett, who consistently underthrew passes down the sideline, forcing Pickens to attempt miraculous plays on the ball.
Second, Fields had a massive impact as a runner, something that Pickett could never do. He ran 14 times for 57 yards, including some important runs for first downs on third down. He’s always a threat to break a massive run, and combined with his deep ball accuracy, it isn’t so awful that he’s not prolific throwing over the middle of the field.
If Fields starts against the Denver Broncos on Sunday, I expect Arthur Smith to target the middle of the field more. Pickens will likely be shadowed by cornerback Patrick Surtain II, one of the best corners in the NFL. I’d expect a few less targets for Pickens down the sideline as the team tries to find ways to get fellow receivers Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin III going in the middle of the field alongside tight end Pat Freiermuth.
