As I did ahead of the 2023 season, I’m making some educated guesses—emphasis on guesses—about how the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 2024 season will unfold. Below are my stat predictions for passing, rushing, receiving, sacks, and interceptions for the year.
For my 2024 team record and result predictions, those will come out later this week.
Passing
| Player | Completions | Attempts | Yards | TDs | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson (16 starts) | 328 | 504 | 3,597 | 22 | 9 |
| Justin Fields (1 start) | 35 | 51 | 372 | 3 | 2 |
– They may feel like modest numbers for Wilson, and they are, but they’re realistic goals and a breath of fresh air in Pittsburgh. Wilson’s 22 scores would tie Ben Roethlisberger’s mark in 2021 on about 100 fewer attempts. Ideally, Pittsburgh is passing the ball less under OC Arthur Smith, though they have more attempts than a year ago, assuming they’ll possess the ball more than 2023.
– About half of Fields’ attempts would come in his start while the rest would be in his packaged plays. Lots of RPOs which brings his average down but his completion percentage up. While he’ll primarily run the ball in these moments, RPOs could be more heavily used down near the goal line for easy matchup wins. He’ll also be given the chance to air it out from time-to-time on traditional passing concepts.
– As for sacks, I predict Wilson will go down 42 times while Fields will be sacked four times. Their bad habits won’t go away in a year.
Rushing
| Player | Carries | Yards | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 251 | 1,094 | 4.4 | 5 |
| Jaylen Warren | 181 | 919 | 5.1 | 5 |
| Justin Fields | 42 | 255 | 6.1 | 4 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 24 | 93 | 3.9 | 1 |
– A closer split between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren under Arthur Smith, who could ride the hot hand more often than Matt Canada. Still, the overall split will tip towards Harris over Warren. Harris’ yards per carry could rise as he rips off more explosive plays with the weight he’s lost and improved offensive line. Still, Warren has more burst and big-play ability, closing the gap in yardage.
– Harris’ touchdowns are lower than ever, but Warren could be used more near the goal line. And Fields will take away some chances, too.
– Fields’ legs will be well-used down near the goal line. And Patterson will see some touches, too.
Receiving
| Player | Catches | Yards | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 81 | 1,274 | 15.7 | 6 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 64 | 667 | 10.4 | 5 |
| Jaylen Warren | 54 | 407 | 7.5 | 3 |
| Van Jefferson | 35 | 402 | 11.5 | 2 |
| Najee Harris | 31 | 201 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Connor Heyward | 27 | 245 | 9.1 | 3 |
| Scotty Miller | 20 | 211 | 10.6 | 1 |
| Calvin Austin | 19 | 270 | 14.2 | 1 |
| Roman Wilson | 17 | 188 | 11.1 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 14 | 102 | 7.3 | 2 |
| Troy Fautanu | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
-First, understand that I match the passing and receiving numbers. On paper, we can create our receiving projections, but until you have to match them to realistic passing numbers, the exercise is harder than you think. Pickens is the clear No. 1. With more volume, his YPC will fall a little bit, and he’s still not a traditional X-receiver who will catch 100-plus passes.
-Freiermuth’s numbers are solid but not dramatically different from those of his first two years. Injuries and health could play a role, but these are still good numbers.
– The RB screen game should be more successful this year, boosting the back’s pass-game numbers a little bit. Van Jefferson is harder to figure out and project but as a No. 2 throughout the year, these seem like realistic targets. I can see Connor Heyward being used down near the goal line. No one player stands out with touchdowns with scores being spread out, a hallmark under Smith.
– Wilson could have a stronger year, but he’s missed a lot of time this summer and will be playing catch-up. He could produce a James Washington-like rookie year, unfortunately.
– Based on camp usage, I don’t see a lot more targets coming for Darnell Washington in his sophomore season. His job is to block but he’ll catch a couple touchdowns. I didn’t put Cordarrelle Patterson down here but he’ll catch some passes, too, probably in the 8-15 range. TE MyCole Pruitt will catch a few, too.
– And I’m calling my shot on offensive tackle Troy Fautanu catching a touchdown as a tackle-eligible. He’s athletic, and tackles caught touchdowns in Tennessee under Arthur Smith.
Sacks
| Player | Sacks |
|---|---|
| T.J. Watt | 19.0 |
| Alex Highsmith | 8.0 |
| Cam Heyward | 6.0 |
| Keeanu Benton | 5.5 |
| Nick Herbig | 5.5 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 4.0 |
| Patrick Queen | 2.5 |
| DeMarvin Leal | 2.0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 1.0 |
| Payton Wilson | 1.0 |
| Isaiahh Loudermilk | 1.0 |
| Beanie Bishop Jr. | 1.0 |
| Dean Lowry | 0.5 |
– T.J. Watt matches his totals from a year ago. Maybe he plays a bit less as Nick Herbig gets some playing time as a sophomore. A strong distribution in the middle as Benton and Herbig see big Year Two jumps while Ogunjobi sets a Steelers’ high.
– These numbers total up to 57 sacks, ten more than last year. Good health all around would boost the D-line production and get them back into the 50s.
Interceptions
| Player | INTs |
|---|---|
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 6 |
| Joey Porter Jr. | 3 |
| Donte Jackson | 2 |
| Damontae Kazee | 2 |
| T.J. Watt | 2 |
| DeShon Elliott | 1 |
| Payton Wilson | 1 |
| Patrick Queen | 1 |
-A big bounce-back season is coming for Minkah Fitzpatrick. With a full year, Porter picks up a couple of interceptions, while Kazee could make some plays in the team’s dime package. He’s picked off two passes in each of his last three seasons. And the linebackers pick up a handful between them.
