The Brandon Aiyuk trade rumors, reports, and speculation are off the charts. So much so that it’s nearly impossible to keep up with it. For someone like me at training camp, squinting to read my notes about whom QB John Rhys Plumlee threw to, it’s been a whirlwind trying to follow it.
Until there’s a resolution, the 49ers trading Aiyuk or him signing a long-term deal with San Fran (less likely), this situation remains fluid. Even top NFL insiders, like Adam Schefter, have wavered on reports.
In an attempt to put all that we know – right now, anyway – in one place, let’s sum up what’s out there and figure out where Pittsburgh might stand.
What Teams Are Involved?
By most accounts, the New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers are the three most active teams in trade discussions. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport noted them in a Tuesday report. He referred to the trade talks as “active.” He also confirmed that the Steelers are “for sure in it” but said the Patriots and Browns were further along in talks than Pittsburgh.
Of course, for any trade to be reached, two obstacles must be bridged. Giving the 49ers enough trade compensation for them to make the move and deal a top wide receiver and have Aiyuk agree to join his new team under sufficient contract terms. No small feat to line everything up.
Weren’t The Steelers Out?
That was the reporting last night when 49ers beat writer Matt Maiocco said the Steelers were “no longer an option” after failing to meet the 49ers’ trade demands. Even in that report, it was important to note the reason wasn’t because of Pittsburgh’s unwillingness to meet Aiyuk’s contractual ask.
However, Adam Schefter, hours after believing the Steelers were out of the running, tweeted Tuesday afternoon that Pittsburgh had “re-engaged” in talks with San Francisco.
Maiocco responded by reiterating his Monday night report but noted Pittsburgh is Aiyuk’s preferred destination.
Given the fluidity of the situation, it’s hard to say any team is out until there’s an actual trade in place. It’s unclear if the new talks involved a better offer from Khan or if the 49ers were having a hard time finding another deal.
Where Does Aiyuk Want To Go?
The 49ers and Aiyuk have leverage. The 49ers obviously dictate who they say “yes” to in a trade. And if they want to keep him, they can, and Aiyuk can’t do much about it. But Aiyuk also has say in where he ends up. Any team that wants to trade for him will need to have a long-term deal set in place. No team will give up assets required to acquire him without a deal figured out, lest they risk not getting an extension done and having Aiyuk enter next offseason a pending free agent.
If Aiyuk doesn’t want to go to a team or doesn’t like their contract offer, he can refuse and essentially shut down the trade.
As Maiocco posted above, Pittsburgh seems to be the place Aiyuk would prefer to go. He’s made overtures at Pittsburgh all offseason be it tweeting about Mike Tomlin, liking team Instagram posts, or wearing a Pittsburgh Pirates hat. In his conversation with The Pivot podcast in late June, Aiyuk said he believed he’d play for either the 49ers, Commanders, or Steelers. Good friend and Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels would make for a logical landing spot, but it doesn’t seem like the Commanders are incredibly engaged in a deal (though nothing should be ruled out). That leaves Pittsburgh high on Aiyuk’s list.
However, Mike Silver reports Aiyuk that hasn’t completely crossed Cleveland or New England off his list.
How Much Does Aiyuk Want?
Contractually, he’s clearly not happy with what the 49ers have offered. While nothing is known for certain, Aiyuk is believed to want between $28-30 million average yearly value. San Francisco’s best offers have reportedly been around the $26 million mark. Of course, structure of the deal is equally as important and could be tricky for Pittsburgh, as Dave Bryan has outlined. While there are ways to overcome the Steelers’ precedents, it’s an element that would need to be hammered out.
What Does San Francisco Want? What Are Teams Willing To Give?
Reporting has varied but closer toward the draft, the 49ers were seeking a first-round pick. Post-draft, they’re almost certainly looking for draft capital. For now, they could also want a player in return to help them win, the 49ers a Super Bowl contender.
Of the three frontrunners, the Patriots’ offer is unclear. What has been reported is New England is willing to make Aiyuk a top-five paid wide receiver. From an APY standpoint, that would put him above Jaylen Waddle’s $28.25 million mark. Maiocco notes the Pats could give back veteran WR Kendrick Bourne, who played for Shanahan from 2017-2020.
What about the Browns? ESPN’s Jeff Darlington reported that Cleveland may be willing to part with WR Amari Cooper in a deal. While that would be a loss for Cleveland, especially after giving Cooper a slight raise (though it was incentive-based), Aiyuk is younger and has a longer-term future. Trading Cooper would also reduce the amount of draft capital the Browns would need to give up. Which is good because after spending the past two years sitting out drafts following the Deshaun Watson trade, they’re probably not thrilled about parting with more early-round selections.
As for Pittsburgh, it’s not certain what GM Omar Khan is willing to give up. A high draft pick seems like a given, at least a second rounder. What player could the Steelers give? That’s up for plenty of debate. There’s certainly no high-prize wide receiver they could give the way Cleveland could Cooper.
While you could try to drum up scenarios about OT Dan Moore Jr., WR Calvin Austin III, or TE Darnell Washington, that’s all speculation and hardly needle movers in a deal. And no, the Steelers aren’t trading OLB Alex Highsmith, a move that would come with over $22 million in dead money.
Will The Steelers Land Aiyuk?
No one knows. Clearly. But Pittsburgh is definitely in the mix. And if Aiyuk wants to come to Pittsburgh more than anywhere else, and the Steelers can bridge those obstacles of trade compensation and contract, there’s a puncher’s chance Omar Khan pulls it off.
Perhaps he’s willing to make the 49ers sweat and offer less than other teams, hoping Aiyuk will put the pressure on the organization to trade him for 80 cents on the dollar just to have a resolution and end a saga that’s dragged on for months. Putting a percentage on it is tough but Pittsburgh has a real shot.
