The Brandon Aiyuk saga has been an absolute roller coaster. It seems like the situation could be coming to an end, but nothing is guaranteed. Mike Tomlin certainly didn’t rule a trade out today, which could be a good sign that Ayiuk ends up with the Steelers. However, the real question is what the Steelers give up in return for Aiyuk. It feels like the San Francisco 49ers would want a player back, but maybe the Steelers could only give up draft capital. According to reporter Ray Fittipaldo, that may be the best outcome for the Steelers.
Appearing on radio station 93.7 The Fan, Fittipaldo was asked what kind of trade package would make sense for the Steelers to put together for the 49ers wide receiver.
“I don’t think the Steelers are gonna trade George Pickens,” Fittipaldo said. “I don’t know that another receiver would be attractive to them. If you want more draft capital, maybe it’s a second and a third. The good thing for the Steelers is Dan Moore, they’re not gonna re-sign him. James Daniels, they’re not gonna re-sign him.
“They will be set up to have a few [compensatory] picks next year, and likely in the middle rounds. If you do have to give up another draft pick, I suppose it won’t be the end of the world.”
Fittipaldo makes a good point about compensatory picks. Those are the draft picks that teams are rewarded based on players they lose and sign in free agency. The more players who leave a team and sign big deals elsewhere, the likelier it is for those teams to receive better compensatory selections. However, if they also spend money in free agency, it could cancel out any of those picks, balancing the scales in a way.
For the Steelers next year, they have a number of free agents that they could lose. Moore and Daniels are the most likely because the Steelers drafted players to eventually replace them, but there are other players who could factor into that formula. Players like Najee Harris and Pat Freiermuth are set to be free agents next year.
However, those players won’t factor into the 2025 compensatory pick formula. That is instead decided by the players lost and signed during free agency in 2024. Therefore, losing those players has the potential of netting the Steelers some compensatory draft picks in 2026. However, that doesn’t mean they aren’t being factored into the Steelers’ negotiations. They could still give up 2026 picks in a trade for Ayiuk, or in any possible trades next year.
It’s likely that some of those players will get deals from the Steelers, but nothing is for certain. If they land Aiyuk, they’ll also have to pay him a lot of money, and with that comes less money for them to spend in the future. In that scenario, it’s unlikely that they would spend a large amount in free agency.
When Kevin Colbert was in charge, the Steelers did look at compensatory picks as allowing them to be more flexible with the rest of their draft capital. That’s part of why they were willing to trade up for Devin Bush years ago. Now, it could make them more willing to part with an excess of draft picks to land Aiyuk. Hopefully that deal, if it happens, pays more dividends than trading up for Bush did.
