The Brandon Aiyuk saga with the San Francisco 49ers has lasted five months at this point. Once they lost in the Super Bowl, the first signs of his contract displeasure started to show up. His friends and family were posting cryptic messages on social media about Aiyuk leaving the team, and there have been various notable events since then that suggest a move for Aiyuk is possible. That all culminated in Aiyuk himself saying that he wants to play for the 49ers, but he would be comfortable playing elsewhere. He specifically named the Washington Commanders and the Pittsburgh Steelers as possibilities.
Bet Arizona released odds in the middle of last week for Aiyuk’s eventual landing spot. If you are holding out hope for a late offseason trade for Aiyuk to the Steelers, these odds throw a bit of cold water on the idea. Currently, they have him at -345, with a 76.5-percent implied probability to stay in San Francisco. The Steelers and Commanders are tied for the second-highest odds, but they are quite low at +1250 (7.4-percent chance).
On one hand, the Steelers could surely use another starting wide receiver on the outside opposite George Pickens. It’s one of the few glaring weaknesses on the roster. In an otherwise rebuilt offense, it could be the thing that prevents them from living up to their potential. Russell Wilson is under a one-year contract and there is no certainty surrounding his future with the team.
On the other hand, the draft capital that will be required to pry him away from the 49ers would be significant, and the Steelers would have to turn around and pay him his asking price, which reports indicate is $30 million average annual value and probably a hefty guarantee structure on top of it. That would be a franchise-defining move for the next few years, but who would be throwing Aiyuk the ball beyond 2024?
It seems silly to go all in on 2024 without the future of the quarterback position figured out. And are we so sure that Pickens can’t be just as good as Aiyuk? If he is, then you probably can’t afford to retain Pickens past his rookie contract. If they did, that would mean at least $50 to $55 million tied up in the receiver position without a clear quarterback plan in place.
Omar Khan has done things a little differently from Kevin Colbert as the Steelers’ general manager, so I am not going to say a move like this is impossible. I think the 7.4-percent chance that Bet Arizona gave is about right. The 49ers can maximize their Super Bowl window for 2024 by keeping him and deal with the salary cap consequences next year, likely moving on from either Aiyuk or Samuel.
