Pittsburgh Steelers QB Justin Fields has gotten an unforeseen opportunity during the first two days of training camp. Russell Wilson has a tight calf muscle, sustained during a condition test on Wednesday. That opened the door for Fields to take all of the first-team snaps to start camp.
The Steelers have simply been keeping Wilson out as a precaution, so he should be back soon. In the meantime, Fields gets to work with the ones and showcase his skills. If he can perform well, that may lead to more opportunities to compete and earn the starting job.
If Fields can earn starts this season, what could a Fields-led offense look like under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith?
“With him there as the starter, I believe this Steelers offense would have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL,” Mina Kimes said on Friday’s episode of ESPN NFL Live. “NextGen Stats has a stat you guys hear me cite because I like it called rushing yards over expected…Justin Fields ranked fourth and Jaylen Warren ranked fifth. So you’ve got two Pittsburgh Steelers in the top five NFL-wide at creating with the ball in their hands. If they’re together in the backfield behind an offensive line that I think is going to be much better run blocking that already has improved a lot, alongside some very good blocking tight ends on this roster. That is a nightmare for a league that is built to stop the pass. And I think the Steelers would present huge problems with that specific type of offense.”
It’s no secret that Fields has excelled as a runner since entering the league in 2021. He’s carried the ball 356 times for 2,220 yards and 14 touchdowns. He has averaged 6.2 yards per carry. Few NFL quarterbacks are as threatening with the ball in their hands as Fields. He would bring a dynamic element to the offense that few can match.
Then there’s Warren. He cemented himself as one of the NFL’s most versatile running backs in 2023, only his second season in the league. But even as just a runner, Warren was fantastic in 2023. He carried the ball 149 times for 784 yards and four touchdowns. That’s 5.3 yards per carry.
Now some people have argued that it’s because he faced lighter boxes than his backfield mate, Najee Harris. But rushing yards over expected factors in all of that by simply looking at how many yards a player is expected to gain on a carry versus how many they actually did.
Over the course of 2023, Warren gained 162 more yards than he was expected to. That was fourth-best among all running backs. Then when you look at how many yards he gained over expectation per attempt, Warren ranked third among all running backs with 1.11. So every time Warren carried the ball, he gained over a yard more than he was expected to.
Oh, and Fields gained 104 rushing yards over expectation in 2023. He gained approximately 0.7 yards more per carry than expected as well.
So the Steelers have two of the best in the league at creating more on the ground than expected. And if the offensive line and play calling improves, as Kimes suggests, those two could be even more dynamic in 2024.
So is that enough for Justin Fields to be named the starter? He needs to continue to improve as a passer. But if he does, there are few offenses in the league that can be as dynamic on the ground as the Steelers.
