After diving into a couple of aspects on explosive plays for new OC Arthur Smith and the Pittsburgh Steelers, the next element for today is a metric I came up with a couple years ago – Adjusted Explosive Plays (AEP).
AEP is the total count of explosive plays, double explosives (40 yards or more) adding a multiplier of two, and triple explosive plays (60 yards or more) multiplying by three. For every play that ended in the end zone, I multiplied by six. So, the longer the explosive the better, and the greatest emphasis on the ultimate goal of scoring points.
As a quick reminder, Smith was the OC for the Tennessee Titans in 2019 and 2020, then HC of the Atlanta Falcons for three seasons (2021-2023).
First, let’s look at total explosive plays, and double explosive plays for NFL offenses since 2019:
Similar to many of my Smith studies, his time as OC in Tennessee were the best results by far, as opposed to his time in Atlanta and Pittsburgh’s numbers. The 2019 Titans had 72 explosive plays, tying for 26th out of the 160 qualifying teams in the five-year span. Where they were even stronger was double explosives (20), which tied for an impressive second-best.
2020 was also a strong double explosive season in Tennessee tying for fifth, compared to 64 total explosives (T-70th), each landing above the mean. Team talent, and other factors play into the numbers, but Smith led an offense that was one of the best at creating double explosives and above average explosive plays for multiple years as an OC, impressively.
Smith returns to that job title with the Steelers, and how fantastic would that be to see such a turnaround in explosive plays. The visual emphasizes the undesired difference, which will hopefully improve with Smith.
Here are the Pittsburgh’s totals and ranks:
PIT19: 46 explosives (T-145th), nine double explosives (T-91st).
PIT20: 58 explosives (T-99th), nine double explosives (T-91st).
PIT21: 50 explosives (T-133rd), nine double explosives (T-91st).
PIT22: 52 explosives (T-125th), three double explosives (dead last).
PIT23: 55 explosives (T-114th), ten double explosives (T-73rd).
Explosives have been a problem for the Steelers for quite some time, largely ranking in the hundreds in the timeframe. Their best mark was 58 in the 2020 season, tying for 99th. 46 in 2019 was the lowest, expected with an injury demolished quarterback position.
Despite low explosive play totals, double explosives fared slightly better overall in the span. Nine double explosives in those first three seasons was a bit below average. But, just three double explosives in 2022 ranked dead last out of the 160 qualifiers. Ouch.
That was former Steelers QB Kenny Pickett’s rookie season, but that was painful to learn, and watch the lack of explosive plays on offense. Last year was a nice positive trend in double explosives though, nearing the league mean with ten of them. Hopefully Pittsburgh can ride that recent momentum, along with Smith channeling his quality results in Tennessee.
Atlanta was the unfortunate flipside, with results closer to Pittsburgh’s in his most recent coaching stop. Here are the Falcons totals and ranks:
ATL21: 46 explosives (T-145th), seven double explosives (T-126th).
ATL22: 54 explosives (T-117th), nine double explosives (T-912st).
ATL23: 57 explosives (105th), ten double explosives (T-73rd).
Less than ideal, for sure. We do see a positive trend in each stat across the three seasons, seemingly pointing to encouraging coaching improvements despite team talent lacking compared to Tennessee.
Next, here are the “money” factors. Triple explosive plays (60 or more yards), and explosive touchdowns (20 or more yards):
Once again, Tennessee were the only squads with the bragging rights of being above average in both triple explosives and explosive touchdowns. They had six triple explosives each year, tying for third-best out of the 160 qualifying teams.
While things felt better last season in Pittsburgh, it was surprising to learn (in my opinion) that they matched those Titans units as three of the five teams to tie for that impressive third rank.
The leader of focused teams in explosive touchdowns was Tennessee in 2019, with 16 of them (T-14th). Second best was Pittsburgh in 2020 at 14 (T-25th), sandwiched between the two Titans offenses (TEN20: 12 – 38th). The Steelers had the final above average touchdown mark, surprisingly in 2019 with 11 (T-53rd).
Unfortunately, all of those strong marks for both Pittsburgh and Smith occurred early in the span from 2019-2020, with overall less desirable results since. Here are those numbers and ranks since 2021:
PIT21: no triple explosives (T-144th), six explosive touchdowns (T-131st).
PIT22: no triple explosives (T-144th), two explosive touchdowns (T-159th).
PIT23: six triple explosives (T-third), nine explosive touchdowns (T-70th).
ATL21: two triple explosives (T-51st), three explosive touchdowns (T-156th).
ATL22: one triple explosive (T-95th), four explosive touchdowns (T-150th).
ATL23: three triple explosives (T-25th), nine explosive touchdowns (T-70th).
Most discouraging is the explosive touchdown results, with three focused teams landing in the bottom ten since 2019: ATL22, ATL21, and PIT22. The 2022 Steelers were one of only two teams to tie for the least explosive touchdowns since 2019, with a horrid 2023 Carolina Panthers offense.
Seeing two of the Falcons squads here is also discouraging. On the bright side, both Pittsburgh and Smith had a positive trend last season, more than doubling to nine explosive touchdowns each in 2023 (T-70th). Here’s to hoping the pairing can marry for a matching or even better continued positive trend in 2024.
With all the individual data covered, here is a table of the total numbers. Included is the Adjusted Explosive Play metric (AEP), and I colored each row to show which teams had the best (or worst) numbers in each stat:
To close, here are the AEP ranks out of the 160 qualifiers:
TEN19: fourth
TEN20: 26th.
ATL21: 155th.
ATL22: T-147th.
ATL23: T-91st.
PIT19: T-98th
PIT20: 52nd.
PIT21: T-141st.
PIT22: 159th (next to last).
PIT23: T-78th.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
