The over/under win totals given by various oddsmakers in Las Vegas have not been kind to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Many of them are projecting the Steelers to have their first losing season under Mike Tomlin, including BetMGM’s 7.5 figure this year. Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis was slightly better for the Steelers at 8.5, but that still projects a losing record for Tomlin.
Sharp outlined his reasons on either side to take the over or the under in his new book “2024 Football Preview”.
Why Bet Under?
The 2023 Steelers won a lot of games they perhaps shouldn’t have. Nine of their 10 wins were one-score games and they had an unusual rate of coming from behind to win in the fourth quarter.
“The Steelers were a superb fourth-quarter team last season, outscoring opponents by 29 points, the fifth-best rate in the NFL,” Sharp wrote. “The team won four games that they trailed entering the fourth quarter, ranking first in the league. That was the ninth-highest total since 2019.”
Russell Wilson has proven throughout his career that he is plenty capable of performing in the fourth quarter. He has 39 game winning drives and 31 fourth-quarter comebacks. Both of those figures are top-10 in league history.
It still isn’t great to be entering the fourth quarter with a score deficit so often. Faster starts on offense should turn that around.
Sharp also points out that Russell Wilson (and Justin Fields) hold onto the ball too long and they both have boom-or-bust tendencies, either checking down or going for deep and low percentage passes.
“Wilson was second (to Justin Fields) in the percentage of his attempts with more than three seconds before the throw,” Sharp wrote. “He was also second in the percentage of his attempts that were thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage and third (just behind Fields) in his percentage of deep targets.”
Holding onto the ball too long might end up being a bigger issue than we are currently giving it credit for. The offensive line should have three young starters, including two rookies. Pass protection might be all over the place this season. If there is one major reason the offense struggles, that could be it.
Why Bet Over?
If you boil down the three biggest issues for the Steelers in 2023, I would list injuries on defense, quarterback play and Matt Canada’s offensive scheme. There are strong reasons to believe that all three of those issues should be fixed in 2024.
“The Steelers offense finished 22nd in yards per play (5.0) and 28th in points per drive (1.48) last season,” Sharp wrote. “Their entire offseason was built around improving the offense with two new quarterbacks and a new offensive coordinator. Even a league average offense paired with Pittsburgh’s defense could be enough for a great season.”
Despite all of the injuries on defense, the Steelers managed to finish the season with the sixth ranked scoring defense. Outside of Cole Holcomb, the Steelers are entering the seasons with no major injuries of note, and Holcomb appears to be on track to begin work sometime during training camp. And one of the positions that was hit hardest by injury in 2023, the inside linebackers, now has arguably the deepest and most talented group of players on the team. Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson add youth and high-end athleticism to the defense.
“Speaking of that defense, they finished ninth in points per drive allowed (1.71), 11th in pressure rate (37.7%), and eighth in takeaways (27),” Sharp wrote. “This has consistently been a strong unit, and they arguably got better this offseason.”
Until Tomlin finally gets his first losing season, it is probably wise to smash the over at 8.5. The schedule will be difficult, but the Steelers’ biggest issues were all remedied throughout the offseason.
