While there is little doubt that third-year WR George Pickens is a starting-caliber player who makes the team better, the jury is still out on whether he can be a true WR1 in the NFL. There’s been a lot of talk about finding a WR2 throughout this offseason since Diontae Johnson was traded to the Carolina Panthers. Still, most of the options that have been discussed would arguably step in as the top option, like Brandon Aiyuk or DK Metcalf. If the Steelers were to extend Pickens off of his rookie contract, it would come next season with one year remaining on his deal. If he wishes to cash in along with the rest of the exploding receiver market, he will need to prove that he is an unquestioned WR1 talent this season.
Some respected NFL analysts still view him as better suited for a WR2 role, including NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah. So what must he do to break into that next category and earn a top contract next offseason?
If you just glance at the box score at the surface level, he is pretty darn close. He had 1,140 receiving yards and a league-leading 18.1 yards per reception. But his 63 receptions and five touchdowns were ranked T-50th and T-35th in the league, respectively. Those are far from WR1 numbers. The discrepancy between those numbers suggests he had a handful of plays that were large gains but wasn’t as efficient with the routine plays to help move the chains.
Of his 63 receptions, 22 were explosive passing plays of 20 yards or more. Those 22 plays accounted for 68.1 percent of his total receiving yards (776). The explosive play production by Pickens is a huge positive, but that leaves just 378 yards for his remaining 41 receptions, an average of just 9.2 per reception. Of the 42 pass catchers with over 100 targets last season, he had the ninth-worst catch percentage of 59.4. Pickens was also tied for 35th in first downs with a handful of tight ends above him on the list. There were 12 games in which he had fewer than five receptions.
That doesn’t all fall on Pickens. The Steelers had arguably the worst combination of an offensive coordinator and starting quarterback in the league with Matt Canada and Kenny Pickett. There are reasons to believe he can improve in all those areas in year three with Russell Wilson at quarterback, an upgraded offensive line to allow plays to develop, and a new offensive system under OC Arthur Smith.
“First and foremost, you have to trust the guy in all situations,” Post-Gazette Steelers insider Ray Fittipaldo said when asked what constitutes a WR1 via 93.7 The Fan’s The Joe Starkey Show. “I think you have to be a team player. You gotta be willing to block. You gotta be good in the locker room. You gotta be a leader. I think all those things factor into being a No. 1 guy. But if you just wanna talk about production, I mean, I could easily see George Pickens having 70 catches for 1,300 yards this year. Does that mean he’s a legit No. 1? I don’t know, but it probably makes him the Steelers’ No. 1.”
His volume of targets should go up without Johnson on the roster and no clear WR2 to command a significant target share. The increased opportunities with a better quarterback passing him the ball could definitely give him a nice bump in production in all areas.
As for the intangible stuff like leadership, that is still a work in progress. There were obvious issues in that area last year with his lack of effort as a blocker and other minor concerns. Mike Tomlin spoke about his maturation process and said he was excited to continue working in those areas at the end of last season. At 23 years old, he finds himself as the leader of the Steelers’ young receiver room. A lot of those questions will be answered in 2024.
To me, he has every chance to prove that he can be a WR1 in the NFL this upcoming season.
