Death, taxes, and the Pittsburgh Steelers having a non-losing season. Those are just the constants in life, at least right now.
That should again be the case in 2024 as the Steelers have locked in head coach Mike Tomlin for three more seasons, upgraded the roster across the board, and appear to be in better shape overall entering the season than at any point in recent years.
Entering the season, the over/under on wins this season for the Steelers sits at 8.5. For Pro Football Focus’s Steve Palazzolo and Sam Monson, the Steelers will win at least nine games, and while that might put them in a bit of purgatory again, it all comes down to QB play.
For Palazzolo, if the Steelers can turn the clock back a bit on Russell Wilson and get the version of him from, say, 2015-17, the Steelers could be very dangerous.
“I believe in Tomlin. They’re gonna win their nine games. What if Russ…can they get Russell Wilson back to that top-eight status? Because that’s how I view Russell Wilson, as a top-eight quarterback in his era,” Palazzolo said, according to video via PFF on YouTube. “Same bucket as [Ben] Roethlisberger, similar career where they started out a little game-managery, winning a lot of games. More was put on their plate and they still produced, but that leveled off for Russ earlier than Roethlisberger, earlier than expected. Can they get him back into that top eight or top 10 territory?
“Because if they randomly got 2015, 16, 17 Russell Wilson, this team’s unbelievable, right? None of us are expecting that, but could they get anywhere close? And if they can, yeah, they’re really dangerous.”
Wilson is arguably the biggest question mark for the Steelers entering the 2024 season.
There is quite a bit of excitement having that big name under center again, one who has an unbelievable resume, has all the experience in the world and knows what it takes to win. But in recent years, his game has fallen off a bit. While he had a strong 2023 season in Denver, throwing for 3,070 yards and 26 touchdowns, he was ultimately benched in a contract dispute. The Broncos took on $80-plus million in a dead cap hit to get rid of him.
He’s not prime Wilson anymore, but with Arthur Smith calling the shots offensively in Pittsburgh, along with a strong running game and a rebuilt offensive line around him, can Wilson get back to fringe top 15 play? Maybe even top 10 play? If he can get anywhere close, the Steelers will be in business.
If not, they could be turning to Justin Fields earlier than many expect, which could affect that wins number in the end.
“I do think the Arthur Smith plus Russell Wilson dynamic, offense coordinator plus quarterback for this team has an extremely broad range of outcomes. Like, I can imagine a world where that combination of scheme and quarterback actually produces really good results,” Monson said. “And you get certainly the best version of Russell Wilson we’ve seen since his real peak years in Seattle. I can also imagine a world where it just doesn’t work, and Russell Wilson is just not the type of quarterback that stylistically does the things that Arthur Smith finds most important, and it ultimately blows up completely and he’s not starting for half the season, right?
“And then we turn to Justin Fields at some point during the year.”
Those are reasonable outcomes for Wilson in Smith’s scheme this year. There doesn’t appear to be any middle ground there. He either figures it out, plays within structure and plays winning football, or he reverts back to trying to do too much, freelancing, making mistakes and playing poor football and ultimately winds up on the bench, ending his honeymoon phase with the Steelers very quickly.
Right now, Russell Wilson is doing and saying all the right things. He feels revitalized, believes he’s found the fountain of youth, and loves working with Smith within the Steelers’ offense. There’s a difference between feeling that now and loving the offense in June than there is in August and into the regular season, where the intensity ratchets up and games count.
He knows this could be his last shot in the NFL to be an impactful starting quarterback and leader. Time is running out a bit on the Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback. If he can get back to a respectable level of play that many know him for, look out. The Steelers really could be dangerous.
If not, it might be Justin Fields’ time earlier than many expect or anticipate.
