Bringing back an exercise I did ahead of the 2022 Pittsburgh Steelers season. With the team one month away from reporting to training camp, it’s worth taking inventory of the team’s 90-man roster (which, due to an international exemption, can and will become a 91-man roster soon enough) and offering a framework of the odds that each player makes the 53-man roster.
After going over the longshots on Monday, we’ll look at those on the outside looking in to make the active/inactive roster for Week 1. A reminder: these odds only reflect the 53-man roster, not the practice squad, and don’t take into account possible injuries by the group around them.
PLAYERS OUTSIDE-LOOKING-IN (11%-40% CHANCE OF MAKING ROSTER)
WR Quez Watkins – 40%
CB Beanie Bishop Jr. – 40%
WR Scotty Miller – 33%
OL Spencer Anderson – 33%
DL DeMarvin Leal – 33%
CB Josiah Scott – 33%
DL Logan Lee – 25%
WR Dez Fitzpatrick – 20%
CB Anthony Averett – 20%
CB Grayland Arnold – 15%
Figuring out the wide receiver battle is tricky and will clearly be determined by camp. But with Calvin Austin III garnering offseason buzz, even taking it with the grain of salt it deserves, and Van Jefferson feeling more well-rounded, guys like Quez Watkins and Scotty Miller sit below with slightly worse odds.
Bishop’s chances took a big hit when the team brought back Cam Sutton. However, a Week 1 suspension looms, and the Steelers still lack good cornerback depth. Bishop was easily the team’s best undrafted free-agent addition.
Anderson did well enough to make the team as a rookie. But Anderson is feeling the squeeze after Pittsburgh selected three linemen in the 2024 NFL Draft, including guard Mason McCormick. He’s likely the No. 10 o-lineman right now and needs an injury to boost his chances. Leal’s been praised by coaches this offseason for showing more maturity and having better control over his weight. Still, he’s off scholarship and must show better technique and pass-rush impact to win the final D-line spot.
Scott is a sneaky veteran option in the slot. But like Bishop, Sutton’s addition hurts his chances. Lee has a hot motor but lacks a standout physical trait, so he could be put on the practice squad.
Fitzpatrick is a sleeper with special teams value, but he won’t offer much as a receiver. Averett and Arnold are veteran corners, Averett more outside and Arnold more slot. There are just names ahead of them that will make a 53-man spot tough to secure but not impossible on the Steelers’ 2024 roster.
