The Pittsburgh Steelers are taking a chance with their quarterback room this season, trying to maximize their window to compete with a loaded but aging defensive roster. They are trying to revitalize the careers of two quarterbacks who were just cast away from their previous teams. Russell Wilson figures to be the starter, so it begs the question – which version of him will the Steelers get?
“I think it’ll be somewhere in the middle of his last year in Denver and then what we saw in Seattle, and the reason why I say that is this. He did make remarkable improvement from what was a disastrous first year in Denver to then Year 1 with Sean Payton,” Brady Quinn said in a video posted by CBS Sports on YouTube from CBS Sports HQ earlier this week. “But remember he was learning a new system for the second year in a row, and that’s tough after you play almost a decade in Seattle.”
The Steelers have built their team to compete and have winning records without any semblance of good quarterback play over the last two or three seasons. They don’t necessarily need the peak Seattle version of Wilson to be a competitive football team in 2024. What they do need him to avoid is his floor, which was the 2022 season in Denver.
Let’s take a look at what would currently be considered his floor and ceiling of play throughout his 12-year career.
In a two-year stretch from 2019 to 2020, Wilson completed 725 passes on 1,074 attempts (67.5 completion percentage) for 8,322 yards, 71 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. His adjusted net yards per passing attempt over that span was a very strong 7.11, and he was in the MVP conversation for part of each of those seasons. The Seahawks went a combined 23-9 during that span, but they did go 1-2 in the playoffs.
That was the “let Russ cook” era in Seattle, where they finally stopped relying on the run game as much and made Wilson the focal point of the offense under offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.
We will just call the two-year stretch of play in Denver the worst of his career though his 2023 statistics weren’t all that bad. From 2022 to 2023, Wilson had 589 completions on 930 attempts (63.3 completion percentage) for 6,594 yards, 42 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. His ANY/A was way down at 5.78, and the team’s record was just 11-19 with him starting.
For comparison, Kenny Pickett completed 446 passes on 713 attempts (62.6 completion percentage) for 4,474 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. His ANY/A was 4.97 and the Steelers’ record was 14-10 during that span from 2022 to 2023.
In other words, as long as Wilson’s 2024 play falls somewhere between his current career floor and ceiling, the Steelers should have a pretty sizable upgrade at the position from recent years.
“Now the strengths and positives of Arthur Smith being their offensive coordinator, it’s what got him the head coaching job at the Atlanta Falcons, was his ability to work with another veteran, Ryan Tannehill,” Quinn said. “I thought he put together an offensive system that played to his strengths…So I think Arthur Smith will lean into that and I think we’ll see a better version of Russell Wilson in Pittsburgh than what we saw from him in Denver the past two years.”
Smith didn’t have a ton to work with at the QB position during his tenure in Atlanta, but he managed to revitalize Tannehill’s career when he was the OC with the Tennessee Titans. He turned Tannehill into a Pro Bowl quarterback in 2019 with the Titans making it all the way to the AFC Championship Game that season, knocking off the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens along the way.
A Russell Wilson who is “somewhere in the middle” of his career floor and ceiling should make a huge difference to the Steelers’ offense.
