The 2023 season was a rather difficult one for Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth, in large part due to injuries but also inconsistent quarterback play.
That led to his lowest output in his career, finishing the 2023 season with just 32 receptions for 320 yards and two touchdowns, both of which came in the season’s first three weeks. Not great!
Now, though, entering his fourth season in the NFL, Freiermuth seems to have some stability at the quarterback position with both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields in the fold, along with a new offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith. Smith loves to utilize the middle of the field and give plenty of work to tight ends.
That combination has Freiermuth potentially looking at a huge 2024 season in the Black and Gold, which would come in a contract year. However, ESPN’s Mike Clay, in his projections for the Steelers’ offense for the upcoming season, sees Freiermuth having a slight bounce back but not putting up the big numbers that many are expecting.
PAT FREIERMUTH — 2024 PROJECTION FROM ESPN: 52 RECEPTIONS, 590 YARDS, 4 TDs
On paper, that projection doesn’t look all that bad for the former Penn State standout. Still, the reception numbers would be below the number that he put up in his first and second seasons, joining Keith Jackson as the only other TE in NFL history to have 60+ receptions in each of his first two seasons in the NFL.
The yardage would be below his career best of 732 yards in 2022 when he truly broke out as a pass-catching weapon for the Black and Gold.
The projections are below what tight ends have done in the past under an Arthur Smith offense, too, which is a bit concerning from Clay’s perspective when it comes to projecting Freiermuth.
Based on the TE usage study from Jeremy Pike for Steelers Depot, TEs saw a target share of between 26% and 34% in Atlanta under Smith. Clay projects Freiermuth to have 82 targets on the season, which would be just 16% of the target share for the fourth-year TE under Smith.
It seems like a stretch to see it be that low, especially with the issues the Steelers still have at wide receiver.
Realistically, Freiermuth should be able to surpass the 53 receptions for 667 yards and three touchdowns that Kyle Pitts had last season in Atlanta, not to mention the 50 receptions for 582 yards and three touchdowns that tight end Jonnu Smith had under Smith in Atlanta last season as well.
Anything short of 60 receptions, 650 yards, and four touchdowns would be rather disappointing from Pat Freiermuth, even in a run-heavy offensive attack. The work in the passing game will be there for the fourth-year tight end, should he be able to stay healthy. He’s never had a greater opportunity. Hopefully he can take advantage of it and easily surpass the projection from Clay.
Verdict: Over
