Some key additions along the offensive line and, most importantly, under center have optimism and expectations quite high for the Pittsburgh Steelers under first-year offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.
ESPN’s Mike Clay doesn’t see it that way, though.
In his seasons stats projections for ESPN.com, Clay sees the Steelers’ offense struggling once again and finishing near the bottom of the league in a number of statistical categories despite upgrades at QB in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields and Smith at coordinator.
Though the Steelers aim to be a ground-and-pound offense that wants to “roll” people with the rebuilt offensive line and two good running backs in Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, Clay is projecting a large regression for both Harris and Warren this season.
So it raised the question for me: will Najee Harris and/or Jaylen Warren go over or under Clay’s projections?
NAJEE HARRIS — 2024 PROJECTION FROM ESPN: 219 CARRIES, 890 YARDS, 6 TDs, 28 RECEPTIONS, 169 YARDS, 1 TD (14 GAMES)
In his NFL career, Harris has been one of the most durable players at the running back position. He hasn’t missed a single game to date and has really only missed some time in-game due to an injury two or three times. For a guy that has almost 1,000 touches in his first three NFL seasons, that durability is remarkable.
Yet, Clay is projecting Harris to miss three games this season, projecting his numbers across 14 games. In those 14 games, Clay’s projections have Harris carrying the ball 219 times for 890 yards and scoring six touchdowns on the ground, adding another 28 receptions for 169 yards and a touchdown.
On a per-game basis, Harris would have 16 carries for 63 yards and two receptions for 12 yards per game. Last season alone, in a poor Matt Canada scheme that saw the Steelers struggle well into November, Harris averaged 15 carries for 60 yards and two receptions for 12 yards.
Though the numbers look very similar, the regression projection comes from the games played. To this point, Harris hasn’t missed a game, so why should the projections have him miss not only one game, but three? Is it because of the workload he’s gone through before? It shouldn’t be. He’s in a great situation with Jaylen Warren behind him, taking some of the workload off him.
With Russell Wilson and/or Justin Fields under center, Harris should face lighter boxes as well, lessening some wear and tear.
When it comes to projecting the over/under with Harris based on Clay’s projections, this feels like an easy over. If Harris plays all 17 games, his numbers would look like this from Clay’s numbers: 266 carries, 1,081 yards and six touchdowns to go with 34 receptions for 204 yards and a touchdown.
Sign me up for those numbers.
Verdict: Over
JAYLEN WARREN — 2024 PROJECTION FROM ESPN: 124 CARRIES, 597 YARDS, 3 TDs, 54 RECEPTIONS, 371 YARDS, 1 TD
Much like Harris, Warren is projected to play just 14 games for the Steelers in 2024, which is downright puzzling.
He’s played 33 of a possible 34 games the last two seasons and works very well in tandem with Harris. The two share the workload and are able to stay relatively fresh throughout the season because of it.
With the projected 14 games, Warren sees a decline in numbers, too, based on Clay’s projections.
Per game, Warren’s numbers average out to nine carries for 43 yards and four receptions for 27 yards. In comparison to last year’s numbers per game of nine carries for 46 yards and three receptions for 21 yards, there is a slight regression projected from a rushing standpoint but a slight increase from a receiving standpoint.
Rather odd, but these are projections. Remember that.
If Warren were to play 17 games at the game average that Clay is projecting, his numbers in Year 3 would look like this: 150 carries for 725 yards and 65 receptions for 450 yards.
Those numbers feel much more in line with what Warren can — and should — do in 2024 under Smith with a better run-game scheme, improvements at quarterback and a rebuilt offensive line.
There is no reason this Steelers run game shouldn’t be one of the best in football under Smith with the people movers up front on the offensive line and the talent in the backfield.
Verdict: Over
