Predicting what’ll happen in the NFL draft is anyone’s guess. Trying to figure out which trades will (and won’t) happen is even harder. One surprise selection throws out every mock draft, every projection, everything we *think* we know. But based on the current landscape, the odds seem low Omar Khan will have a repeat performance in 2024, after trading up in the first round to take Georgia OT Broderick Jones last year. There isn’t a top player at a position of scarce depth that will compel this team to make that kind of move.
But come Round 2? That’s where Khan might make his move.
As deep as positions like wide receiver, offensive tackle, and center are, that depth only lasts so long. Any value that exists after Round 1 will be recognized leaguewide and likely create a run at the position. Teams trying to grab the top talent left before it’s gone. The Steelers are sitting in the middle of the second round, 51st overall, and the pickings could be slim if they hang around and wait.
Let’s say they pass on center at No. 20. Wouldn’t be the worst thing to do. Centers fall lower than their projection. But banking on one, say West Virginia’s Zach Frazier, slipping to No. 51 is a gamble. If he “falls” and gets snagged at say, No. 47, then the fall doesn’t do anything for Pittsburgh except increase the heartbreak. And if the top three options are off the board, Graham Barton, Jackson Powers-Johnson, and Frazier, Pittsburgh’s in big-time trouble.
It would make sense for Khan to draft, for example, an offensive tackle in the first round, and then climb 10 spots in the second round to grab his center. There’s a cost, literal and figurative, but he only gave up a fourth-round selection to move from 17 to 14 last year, an efficient and smart deal. Conventional trade charts suggest giving up a third rounder but maybe Khan can work out the same terms this year. It hurts the Steelers’ ability to address all their needs, of which there are many, but it’s better than figuring out whatever “Plan B” is at center.
Receiver could be argued the same. One of the deepest positions in draft history, there will be talent that falls into the early second round. But how many will be there by No. 51? We’ve already heard buzz on Florida Ricky Pearsall being drafted earlier than expected, one of the Steelers’ top targets. If Pittsburgh is dialed in on one receiver, it could make a move for another position of need. Offensive tackle seems less likely, the team hasn’t explored many of the Day 2 names, but that shouldn’t be ruled out either. Those names definitely won’t last long and if talent gets pushed down, there will be an early Friday run.
Teams don’t know whether or not to make a trade until they’re in the moment. Until the draft has begun, the board starts forming, and you can weigh offers sent and received. But last year, we noted the path of the team trading up only in one scenario, making a move at offensive tackle for Paris Johnson or Broderick Jones. That layout proved true. If there’s a time to call a shot for this year’s draft, it’s Round 2.
