Player: WR George Pickens
Stock Value: Up
Reasoning: A lot has happened since we last discussed George Pickens in this series. The Steelers hired a new offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith, and they traded WR Diontae Johnson. They also swept out the quarterback room, trading Kenny Pickett and signing Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. All of this, on the whole, plays to the good for Pickens entering his third season.
A competent offensive coordinator, a competent quarterback, and the highest-volume target traded all play in George Pickens’ favor. The third-year wide receiver should see a significant increase in targets in 2024, and ideally in quality targets as well.
While Arthur Smith historically leans toward run-dominated offenses, he throws when he needs to. And he puts the ball in the air in ways that suit Pickens’ game. Wide receivers like A.J. Brown have put up numbers playing under Smith in the past, and Russell Wilson and Justin Fields also cater to a deeper passing game. I will remind readers at this point that Pickens led the NFL in yards per catch in 2023.
Arguably the biggest change for Pickens, however, is the fact that Diontae Johnson is gone. Johnson drew the equivalent of 152 targets per season over the past four years when adjusted for time missed. Consequently, his absence leaves a lot more targets to distribute elsewhere.
Sure, TE Pat Freiermuth will get some of those targets, but only Pickens stands in the way of seeing a substantial workload increase. Even last season over 17 games, he saw just 106 targets. He caught only 63 of them but for 1,140 yards and five touchdowns.
The 23-year-old experienced a tumultuous season last year, facing scrutiny for his attitude and effort. Many feel these concerns trace back to his lack of usage in the passing game, though, so keeping him happy can lead to keeping him in line.
The variable to look out for is the draft, as most expect the Steelers to pick a wide receiver early. Even if they draft a nuanced route runner, however, I don’t know that we see a newcomer pull 100-plus targets.
As the season progresses, Steelers players’ stocks rise and fall. The nature of the evaluation differs with the time of year, with in-season considerations being more often short-term. Considerations in the offseason often have broader implications, particularly when players lose their jobs, or the team signs someone. This time of year is full of transactions, whether minor or major.
A bad game, a new contract, an injury, a promotion—any number of things affect a player’s value. Think of it as a stock on the market, based on speculation. You’ll feel better about a player after a good game, or worse after a bad one. Some stock updates are minor, while others are likely to be quite drastic, so bear in mind the degree. I’ll do my best to explain the nature of that in the reasoning section of each column.
