Today, I wanted to continue learning about new Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. An important element for offenses in today’s NFL is explosive plays (20 yards or more), along with limiting negative plays (zero yards or less). The goal is to see how the Steelers and Smith as a play caller (since 2019) have stacked up league-wide in that span.
Here are explosive versus negative play rates (160 qualifying teams):
What jumps out right away, as it has in several of my similar studies on Smith, is the offenses in Tennessee were extremely strong. In 2019, the Titans had a 7.6 explosive play rate, which was seventh-best in the five-year span, and much better than the other teams in our sights.
The following season featured a better 27.4 negative play rate, ranking ninth in the same span. Tennessee came away with 11-win regular seasons in each (making the playoffs), with their deepest run in 2019 when they lost the AFC Championship.
2019 was a rough year for Pittsburgh including a decimated QB room, equating to the logically lowest 36.1 negative play rate of focused teams, and 12th-worst across the NFL. 2020 was Pittsburgh’s best balance of both, with a 5.7 explosive play rate and 32.5 negative play rate, which were slightly below average in each. 2021 was the worst 4.4 explosive play rate of highlighted teams, and 11th worst league-wide, along with a less than ideal 33.5 negative play rate.
The only season Pittsburgh had an above average mark was 2022, with a 29.8 negative play rate in QB Kenny Pickett’s rookie year. Smith had a slightly better number the same season (29.2) ranking 29th, while also faring stronger than the Steelers in explosive play rate. This season was his best in Atlanta in several of my stats dives.
Eerily similar results for Smith’s Falcons and the Steelers last year: Atlanta: 5.3 explosive, 32.6 negative. Pittsburgh: 5.3 explosive, 32.7 negative. Overall, Atlanta was better at limiting negative plays, with Smith struggling in explosive plays as a head coach there. These marks align with Pittsburgh results in the span unfortunately, with the Steelers and Falcons below league average in explosive plays through the entire span.
So, it’s obviously the hope that Smith can rekindle his success with the Titans in Pittsburgh, and returning to OC duties hopefully aiding that goal. 2022 was the only other season with above average marks, when the Falcons and Steelers each had respectable negative play rates. That means four Pittsburgh squads in the span were below league average in both, with explosive plays straying furthest from the mean.
Those goal rates are a 6.0 explosive play rate, and 32.0 on negative plays that the Pittsburgh offense will hopefully eclipse. Ideally, if Smith can lead the Steelers to rates that land between his two coaching stops (or better), it would likely aid in the most successful Steelers season in quite some time.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
