The NFL’s annual legal free agency tampering period will get underway on Monday and on Wednesday, the start of the 2024 league year commences. Ahead of all this, I thought late Sunday night would be a great time to project how much cash the Pittsburgh Steelers are likely to spend during free agency this year.
Notice that I indicated cash and not cap. These are two different things. Sure, the Steelers currently have a little more than $25 million in available salary cap space at the time of this post and that’s important. That said, predicting how much cash they will spend this offseason in free agency can help us get a good idea as to how they will manage their cap allocations.
When it comes to cash spending on free agents moving forward, think base salary given to a player plus whatever signing bonus might be given. For example, if a free agent is signed to a three-year contract that includes a $1.5 million base salary and a $6 million signing bonus, the cash spend in 2024 for that player would be $7.5 million in total.
Now, to formulate a guess regarding what the Steelers might ultimately spend in cash on free agents (both their own and outside) moving forward, we first must predict what the team is likely to spend in total on their entire team in 2024. With this being the first year of the new three-year cash spending period in the CBA, that makes it quite difficult to do. Even so, I’ll give it a shot.
First, the NFL salary cap number for 2024 is $255.4 million. Knowing that teams must spend at least 90 percent of the league’s cap total in cash over a span of three years gives us a rough target for Year One. As I posted recently, the Steelers spent 97 percent of the last three years’ cap total in cash. Because of that, I suspect that 97 percent might be the target for this next three-year period. Even so, I don’t think the Steelers will hit that 97 percent mark in 2024, Year One of the period. Personally, I’m expecting the Steelers to spend around 92 percent of the 2024 cap number in cash.
Doing the math, 92 percent of $255.4 million is $234.968 million so we’ll round that up to $235 million for a nice even number. With that as a projected total cash spending amount, we can work backwards from there.
As of Sunday night, the Steelers top 53 cash spends under contract for 2024 totals out at $162,754,120. That’s the total of all base salaries and roster bonuses currently due. Additionally, we know that the Steelers will spend close to $15 million on signing bonuses on their 2024 draft class and undrafted free agents as things stand on this Sunday night. Additionally, another $4 million in cash will need to go towards a practice squad in 2024. The grand total of all of those amounts is $181,604,220 and assuming the target cash spend for 2024 is $235 million, that leaves $53,395,780 left to spend in cash.
Now, I predict that sometime during the offseason that the Steelers will sign TE Pat Freiermuth to a contract extension. I also predict such an extension will require about $13 million in additional cash in 2024 being spent on Freiermuth based on other recent contracts being signed by similar tight ends. Assuming my prediction is close, that would leave the Steelers roughly $40.4 million in cash to spend on free agents this offseason.
How would a $40.4 million cash spend in 2024 free agents relate to last offseason? Well, the total of all additions last offseason that stuck on the initial roster was $59.13 million in cash. I should also note that WR Allen Robinson II was $5 million of that total as I included him because the team traded for him. It should, however, be noted that the Steelers spent roughly 97.6 percent of the 2023 NFL cap number in cash.
How much room for error should be allotted for in my predictions? I think two percent on either side. Basically, I could see the Steelers spending 90-94 percent of the 2024 cap total in cash. That boils down to free agency cash spending equaling out to a range of $35 million to $45 million.
After the CFA (compensatory free agent) signing period (March 13-April 29) ends, we’ll take another look at where the Steelers stand from a total cash spending perspective. At that point, we should really have a good idea as to what the team is likely to spend in cash for the entire 2024 season.
I’m excited to see how close I come with this free agency cash spending prediction and especially with this being the first year of the new three-year CBA period.
