Heading into the offseason, there may not be a Pittsburgh Steelers player with more eyes on him than QB Kenny Pickett. Plenty of people have written him off as a potential franchise quarterback. They will point out that the offense failed to produce points with him at quarterback, while Mason Rudolph put up 30+ points twice in his limited starts in 2023.
However, does that mean Pickett is a complete failure at quarterback, and the Steelers need to wash their hands of him already? It does not appear that the team feels that way. Head coach Mike Tomlin said Pickett will face some competition at his end-of-season press conference but fully intends to have Pickett starting the process as the de facto starter.
Is that wise? Obviously, the people in the building know more about Pickett than anyone else. What we can do is a comparison of Pickett’s stats through his first 25 games in the NFL and compare that to other quarterbacks. To give us our dataset, we will be looking at all quarterbacks since 2000 who have thrown at least 600 passes in their first 25 games. Pickett has thrown 713 passes through his first 25 games, but we know that passing has increased in recent years, hence setting the benchmark at 600 passes since we’re looking back almost 25 seasons.
We wanted to take a look at what quarterbacks Pickett is historically most similar to. This doesn’t guarantee we know how Pickett will develop, but it can give us an idea of whether similar quarterbacks have gone on to have long careers, if any have arguably become franchise quarterbacks, or if they typically have flamed out in the NFL.
By using these parameters, we were able to pull a list of 83 quarterbacks since 2000 who have attempted at least 600 passes in their first 25 career games. So, where does Pickett stack up?
Where Pickett Ranks Among The 83
The Elephant In The Room
Historically, it’s hard to argue the point raised earlier about the lack of touchdown production. According to our dataset, Pickett is tied for the fewest touchdowns thrown at 13 with former Carolina Panthers quarterback Chris Weinke. The next lowest total is 16 by three quarterbacks: Josh McCown, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Charlie Frye. Out of those four quarterbacks, the only one who you could argue has had a respectable career is Fitzpatrick, and he might be the ultimate journeyman quarterback, having played for nine different teams during his 17-year career.
Then when you look at the percentage of passes resulting in a touchdown versus the number of passes thrown, the picture gets somehow bleaker. Pickett is dead last for the criteria above at 1.8 percent. Weinke is just ahead of him at 2.0 percent.
Completion Percentage
However, when you compare the rest of Pickett’s statistics, it becomes apparent that the touchdown number and percentage are outliers. For instance: Pickett has a 62.6 percent completion percentage through his first 25 career games. That’s actually a tenth of a percent better than Aaron Rodgers’ completion percentage in the same time frame and three-tenths better than Baker Mayfield. In fact, out of our list of 83 quarterbacks, Pickett is tied for the 24th-best completion percentage. He’s above other quarterbacks like Philip Rivers, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, and Trevor Lawrence.
One Of The Best At Not Throwing Picks
There was a lot of talk about Pickett and throwing picks after his rookie season. However, when you start comparing his numbers over 25 games to other quarterbacks, he is one of the best at not throwing passes to the other team. He has thrown 13 interceptions to start his career, which is tied for the fourth-fewest among the 83 quarterbacks with Chad Pennington. Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has the lowest total with eight.
Then you can go a little further to see how often Pickett throws those interceptions. Out of 83 qualifying quarterbacks, Pickett is tied for the fifth-lowest interception percentage at 1.8 percent with Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert. Prescott again leads with 1.1 percent of his throws resulting in an interception.
Slightly Below Average Rating
When it comes to passer rating, there may be some accusations that it doesn’t paint the whole picture of a quarterback, especially one who is mobile. After all, it’s only evaluating how the quarterback is doing when it comes to the combination of how many passes he is completing, how far the ball is traveling, and how many touchdowns and interceptions he is throwing. It’s not perfect, but it can give us a wider picture.
So where does Pickett stack up amongst our 83 quarterbacks? 52nd, just 0.1 behind former New Orleans Saints quarterback Aaron Brooks and just 0.3 above Case Keenum. However, he still boasts a higher rating than Lawrence (75.9,) Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen (77.9,) Brees (73.2,) and two-time Super Bowl champion Eli Manning (70.5)
Low Yards Per Attempt
While yards per attempt might not be the most important stat, it’s still something we look at to get an idea of how much ground a quarterback’s passes gain versus his passing attempts. Unfortunately, it’s another area that Pickett lags behind in as he is tied for 64th out of 83 with quarterbacks like Zach Wilson, David Carr, and Colt McCoy. There are some notable names just above and below him if you’re looking for hope, though. Just 0.3 yards higher are Allen and Matthew Stafford, while Lawrence averaged 0.1 yards less than Pickett.
So now we’ve got an idea of where Pickett falls in some major statistical categories among this grouping of quarterbacks. So, who are some quarterbacks that have similar numbers, and how did they turn out?
Similar Quarterbacks
There are no quarterbacks who have had exactly the same statistics as Pickett through 25 games which should be of no surprise. However, there aren’t really any quarterbacks who also have similar percentage rates as Pickett, either. As noted above, Pickett is near-average in a number of categories, among the best in interceptions, and among the very worst when it comes to throwing touchdowns. Unsurprisingly, that makes him an outlier. So if you’re worried about Pickett turning into Chris Weinke, don’t. He greatly outperforms Weinke’s numbers in every other area.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t some other quarterbacks who show up around Pickett in a number of categories, however. One of those names might give Steelers fans some hope.
Trevor Lawrence
As noted above, no comparison is going to be perfect. However, there are some similarities between Pickett and Lawrence through their first 25 games. Lawrence posted a 60.5 completion percentage, 5481 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 23 interceptions, a 75.9 quarterback rating, and averaged 6.2 yards per passing attempt. Lawrence obviously threw for more touchdowns than Pickett, but they both were around a 1-to-1 TD-INT ratio. Lawrence also threw for more yards than Pickett, but Pickett was slightly better in just about every other statistic.
That should give Steelers fans some hope. In fact, in their first seasons, Lawrence was demonstrably worse. He only completed 59.6 percent of his passes and threw an interception 2.8 percent of his passing attempts, a whole percentage point higher than Pickett.
So what happened for Lawrence’s numbers to spike? A coaching change. He started his career under former Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer who was fired before the end of Lawrence’s rookie season. The Jaguars brought in Doug Pederson as head coach and Press Taylor as offensive coordinator. Obviously, the Steelers are not making a head coaching switch, but there will be a new offensive coordinator creating the scheme and calling plays. That could help Pickett tremendously.
Zach Wilson
This name, however, should give people pause. It’s not all rosy where Pickett is statistically, so it makes sense that there would be some disappointing names nearby as well. When we look at Pickett’s yards per attempt, he and Wilson average the same exact number, 6.3. Wilson actually has thrown for more touchdowns through his first 25 games by four. He also has a slightly higher touchdown percentage of 2.4. Wilson has thrown 22 interceptions and has an interception rate of 3.1, a good bit higher than Pickett. They also have thrown for almost an equal number of yards (Wilson has Pickett beat by 15 yards.) Pickett did complete passes at a good bit higher rate (62.6 percent to Wilson’s 54.9 percent.) However, there are enough similarities between the two to show some caution.
How Much Is On The Offensive Coordinator?
We saw how big of a statistical jump Lawrence made going from the insanity that was his rookie year under Urban Meyer to stability with Doug Pederson. Now the Steelers are not going through a head-coaching change like the Jaguars did, but Pickett will be competing to be the starter with Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator rather than Canada. Now while plenty of people have said that Smith is a run-first guy (and he does love a great running game,) he is not simply a run-game coordinator calling plays for the entire offense.
We know that Smith is a big proponent of using play-action passes which Pickett has been successful at (in a very limited capacity as the Steelers ranked dead-last in play-action usage in 2023.)Â We also know that Smith loved to use his tight ends in Atlanta, throwing to them often and also being aggressive in targeting Kyle Pitts down the field (an average depth of target over 10 yards in all three seasons.)
One of the lingering questions that will need to be answered has to deal with Pickett’s aggressiveness in attacking downfield. It’s a staple of Smith’s offense, but Pickett has not thrown the ball deep in the air consistently, averaging 7.5 intended air yards per pass attempt as a rookie and 7.0 in 2023. Smith will need to find out if it was simply an offensive philosophy during Pickett’s first two seasons or whether Pickett is not an aggressive quarterback.
Regardless, a quality run game and building play-action off that can help a young quarterback improve. We even saw it help a more veteran quarterback rejuvenate his career in Ryan Tannehill with the Titans.
Ryan Tannehill – A Sign Of Hope For Pickett?
Tannehill, like Pickett, was a first-round pick. The Miami Dolphins drafted him eighth overall in 2012 where he stayed until the end of the 2018 season. In Tannehill’s first 25 games of his career, he completed 59.4 percent of his passes, threw 25 touchdowns and 23 interceptions, and averaged 6.7 yards per attempt. So while he threw for many more touchdowns, he had a similar touchdown-to-interception ratio with a decently lower completion percentage.
Tannehill did improve his completion percentage to 62.8 percent for his six played seasons with the Dolphins. That number isn’t much better than Pickett’s so far in his career, by the way. Tannehill also eclipsed 20 passing touchdowns three times with Miami (2013, 2014, and 2015.) However, he did have three seasons with an interception percentage of over three percent. He simply was never a high-end quarterback during his time with the Dolphins.
After Tannehill wrapped up his time in Miami, he joined the Tennessee Titans in 2019, where Arthur Smith was offensive coordinator. In 2019, Tannehill had one of his best seasons as a pro. He threw for 22 touchdowns (he had thrown for more in those three seasons listed above,) but he only threw six touchdowns (a career-low up to that point,) completed 70.3 percent of his passes, and led the league in yards per attempt with 9.6. Then in 2020, he threw a career-high 33 touchdowns while still completing 65.5 percent of his passes, threw only seven interceptions (with an interception percentage of 1.5, his career-low,) and still averaged 7.9 yards per attempt. Those two seasons with Smith as his coordinator were the only two seasons in which he had a rating over 100.
Now am I saying Pickett can reach those levels of performance? Not necessarily, but we do have evidence of a quarterback showing drastic improvement under Smith.
Final Thoughts
Pickett’s first 25 games as an NFL quarterback have been a historical anomaly. In terms of touchdowns, he’s the worst at it, falling in the dreaded Chris Weinke territory. However, he historically has been a well above-average quarterback in terms of completion percentage and one of the very best at not throwing interceptions. Then he’s below average in terms of yards per attempt.
So what does that mean for Kenny Pickett? Will he follow more of a Trevor Lawrence arc in his career, thanks to a coaching change? Or will he be remembered more like Zach Wilson, a quarterback who the team thought would fix the quarterback issues but never did? It depends a lot on how he responds to his new offensive coordinator. Will he be more of a Ryan Tannehill or a Desmond Ridder?
Thankfully, we can see areas where Pickett has peers with similar historical statistics who have had successful careers, even if they never became a Top 10 quarterback in the league.
