2024 NFL Draft

Pavelle: 2024 Mock Draft 2.0

By Scott Pavelle

Posted on February 13, 2024 at 11:30 am

Let’s start with a few free agency assumptions:

OT – Chuks Okorafor will be replaced by an experienced swing tackle such as the Raiders’ Jermaine Eluemunor.
CTR – Mason Cole has a year left on his contract, so the Steelers will honor it. They will bring in another option to compete with him.
QB – Mason Rudolph will remain or be replaced by a comparable journeyman. Pick whoever you like that will provide competition without breaking the bank. Mitch Trubisky has been released, leaving only two QBs on the roster.
CB – Levi Wallace and Chandon Sullivan will both remain or be replaced by comparable talents. I.e., there will be basically competent but not good CBs prepared to play in the slot and across from Joey Porter Jr.
NT – Armon Watts or Montravius Adams will remain but not both.
ILB – What is the diagnosis for Cole Holcomb? If he is able to play in 2024, Kwon Alexander will depart. If not, Kwon Alexander (or an equivalent talent) will remain.

One final rule: This is a no-trades draft.

Pick 1:20 – OT Amarius Mims, Georgia.

I recently wrote about my approach to Round 1 picks, and ended with the following list of realistic Pittsburgh targets:

QB Drake Maye	OT Joe Alt	C/G/T Graham Barton	CB Terrion Arnold
QB Caleb Williams	OT Olu Fashanu	C/G Jackson Powers-Johnson	CB Denzel Burke
QB Jayden Daniels	OT Tyler Guyton		CB Nate Wiggins
QB Bo Nix	T/G Taliese Fuaga		CB Quinyon Mitchell
QB Michael Penix Jr.	OT J.C. Latham		CB Cooper DeJean
	OT Amarius Mims		CB Kool-Aid McKinstry

Mock 1.0 targeted a center at 1:20. This time it’s one of the offensive tackles – but probably not for the reason you think.

I have more faith in Dan Moore Jr. than most of Steeler Nation. He wasn’t as bad as the infamously faulty graders at Pro Football Focus made him out to be. IMHO Moore earned a barely-passing “D” grade in 2023 with signs that he is still improving and should be better in 2024. I would be surprised if he doesn’t reach a level where fans may have to hold their noses a bit but will grudgingly call him “struggling toward average.” I.e., something more like a “C.” If we’re really lucky it could even be [gasp] a “B.”

I also cry B.S. on the idea that Broderick Jones would be a better player on the left than on the right. People say that switching sides is like learning to wipe yourself with the other hand. Well, I broke my wrist once and had to do just that. It was very awkward for a week or so. Then I got the hang of it and stopped even thinking about it. Thus I don’t believe that Broderick Jones will have any particular issue learning both sides as quickly and as well as either. He needs to put in the work required to become a fully competent NFL tackle, not a RT or a LT. [NOTE: Dan Moore Jr.’s problem switching sides bothers me more than any other element in his game, and I would be happy to discuss your views on the issue down in the comments].

More B.S. has been saved for the idea that LTs have more value than RTs or call for a different skill set. That all changed with Michael Strahan’s record-setting season in 2001. Nowadays? Just look at the list of pass rushers who play across from the RT instead of the LT. Nick Bosa. Joey Bosa. T.J. Watt. Khalil Mack. Von Miller. Not to mention pass rushers like Mycah Parsons and Maxx Crosby who routinely flip sides. It’s endless! Right and left are geographic descriptions in the modern NFL, not separate roles, so there is no particular gain to be had by flipping Jones to one side versus the other unless he happens to play the spot better. See above.

Nor is depth a huge issue, since my offseason included a decent swing tackle to replace Okorafor.

So why pick a tackle at all? Because the draft isn’t about filling holes, especially in Round 1. It’s about adding someone who can hopefully contribute as a rookie, should be a solid starter in Year 2, and has decent odds of becoming a star from Year 3 on. Using Round 1 to fill a hole causes nothing but problems. Just look at recent Steelers history if you want to see that truism in action.

Name someone you would call a Round 1 bust, and then tell me whether he played at Pittsburgh’s primary position of need going into that draft. The answer is “yes.” Devin Bush, Artie Burns, Jarvis Jones… That is the common thread. Now look at the hits. T.J. Watt played at a position of want, not need. Same for Ryan Shazier and Cam Heyward when they were drafted. Other stars like Maurkice Pouncey and David DeCastro did come at primary areas of need, but they also played at so-called “lower-value” positions; meaning the team had to judge them purely by talent rather than some positional value chart.

Amarius Mims has All-World, A++ potential. top-five talent. His issues all go to a lack of starting college experience that will probably keep him off the field for most, and maybe all of his rookie season. I would of course prefer to see earlier returns, but it isn’t that big a deal compared to the longer-term upside. With Broderick Jones on one side, an improved Dan Moore Jr. on the other, and a viable swing tackle for insurance, the Steelers can afford to let Mims learn the NFL game properly and without early exposure that could force him back toward old habits he needs to break.

Amarius Mims offers genuine Round 1 value. Done.

OT Amarius Mims, Georgia (Junior). 6-7, 340 pounds with ___” arms and ___” hands. Turns 22 in October. An astonishing physical talent with perfect dimensions and athletic potential so high it’s hard to believe. Alex Kozora’s gif-supported Depot scouting report has player comps to no less than Tra Thomas and Jonathan Ogden! He writes, “Mims’ biggest weakness is getting beat against inside moves and counters,” (which is tightly connected to experience) and concludes that his lack of experience is by far the biggest risk. Brandon Thorn’s November scouting profile agrees: “[H]e looks like he was made in a lab with a towering frame, rocked-up build, big hands and long arms… [he is also an] easy mover out of his stance… has powerful strikes [and] grip strength… [and has] good quickness and fluidity on the move.” Again the problem is lack of experience – as in only eight starts in his college career. In earlier years that was easy to explain due to Georgia’s championship-level OT talent ahead of him (such as Broderick Jones). And in 2023 he looked great as the starting RT even though he injured his ankle in the opener and played hobbled until the injury got worse in December. So the bottom line is that he requires much more projection than you’d like, but he could easily end up being the best lineman of the draft or even the best overall player. And the dice roll says…

Pick 2:19 (#51 overall) – OC Zach Frazier, West Virginia.

My hypothetical offseason added some competition for Mason Cole precisely to remove the genuine need that would otherwise force the Steelers to devote one of their first two picks toward a center. Now we can feel comfortable about the team’s ability to pick a steal at some other position if the opportunity arises.

But come on. This is me. Mansfield -to-Webster-to-Dawson-to-Hartings-to-Pouncey. I want a center! And I will be quite happy if it turns out to be Zach Frazier.

Simulators will still allow you to pick up Jackson Powers-Johnson here, but I no longer believe that’s true, and I’ve yet to see any credible board where Graham Barton could fall this far. But those two have “regular All-Pro” in the product description and Zach Frazier does not. His label reads, “expect a few Pro Bowls.” That’s way more than required for a Round 2 pick. Besides: Frazier is a native West Virginian, and one of the most Steelerish prospects in the draft regardless of position. That’s a win as well.

C/G Zach Frazier, WVU (Junior). 6-3, 310 pounds with ___” arms and ___” hands. Turns __ in ___. Broke his leg in the season finale. The catchwords seem to be strong, quick-handed, smart, and dependable, with a very high floor and a ceiling capped only by his lack of special length or elite fluidity. A wrestler’s understanding of how to use leverage – as in West Virginia’s four-time H.S. heavyweight champion and arguably its best wrestler ever. Mobile enough to play outside zone but would be better in a gap and inside-zone scheme like Pittsburgh’s because his burst and people-moving ability are stronger parts of the profile. Projects as a good, solid, long-term starter but probably not a constant All-Pro. Alex Kozora’s gif supported Depot scouting report called him “rock-solid…, hard-working, humble, smart, and high character.” Alex had to search for negatives, finally settling on limited length and his lack of genius-level athleticism. Brandon Thorn’s scouting profile came out in late November, but he is good enough to trust even so. “Overall, Frazier is an experienced center-only prospect with adequate size, solid athletic ability and very good play strength that he combines with high-level football intelligence and competitive toughness to run the show pre-snap, lead and find ways to get defenders blocked in a variety of schemes. He projects as a long-term, dependable starter at the pivot.” This goes to a typically solid TDN scouting profile. Came in at #37 on Daniel Jeremiah’s initial top 50: “He will be a Day 1 starter and tempo setter for the team that drafts him.”

Pick 3:20 (#84 overall) – Jaden Hicks, Washington St.

I love both selections so far except for one thing: two picks in a row for the offense pretty well limits my options to the point where two or three defensive players have to go next. Thank goodness the pool is going to be rich with prospects at several of those positions. The only requirements are talent good enough to provide fair value, and:

For DL – must fit the Pittsburgh specifications
For ILB – must excel in the Mack role at least as much as the Buck
For SAF – must excel as a strong safety at least as much as free safety and
For CB – inside or outside, there’s room for both.

Here’s the Board I will work from:

DL	ILB	SAF	CB
Maason Smith	Ty’Ron Hopper	Jaden Hicks	Cam Hart
Ruke Orhorhoro	Tyrice Knight		Khyree Jackson
Gabe Hall	Jaylan Ford		D.J. James
			Kalen King
			Max Melton
			Josh Newton
			Mike Sainristil

I don’t yet know these players as well as I would like, but I like the impressions I have gained. The three DTs are the weakest group, being fair value but nothing more. They would win a positional tiebreaker, but it isn’t going to reach that point because ILB Ty’Ron Hopper and S Jaden Hicks both stand out as better values. Both young men straddle the ILB/S line, just from opposite directions.

As for the CBs… wow. Hart (6-2½, 205) and Jackson (6-3, 195) fit the outside corner profile that Pittsburgh targeted so intently last year. Think of Cory Trice Jr. without the medical flags. D.J. James fits the profile too, and might have even more coverage skill, but he also comes with significantly less size (6-1, 174). Built like a willow wand. King, Melton, Newton, and Sainristil are just plain, good, football players with inside/outside flexibility. All seven are worth a Round 3 pick from what I have learned so far.

I’m going with Hicks for two reasons. First, I really like the idea of adding someone who can participate in multiple roles: nickelback, box safety, Cover-2 safety, and special teams ace. That’s a very solid floor even if he has a lot to learn before claiming full-time snaps. Hopper would do the same, of course, and he has a cooler name. But… Here’s the thing. I am an ILB junkie. I admit it. And I want someone special for Shazier’s old position, not just someone good. I prefer to wait for a year with a super talent to target.

SAF Jaden Hicks, Wash. St. (Junior). 6-3, 212 pounds with ___” arms and ___” hands. Turns __ in ___. An all-purpose safety who is better in the box due to limited long speed, which he compensates for with solid coverage skills and a high football IQ. Hicks was tackling machine in college and solid across the board in all other roles. He’s occasionally guilty of going for the kill shot but reliably wraps up when things don’t line up too temptingly. Guaranteed to be a good special teams player. The gif-supported Depot scouting report by Ryan Roberts (Round 3) likes Hicks’ versatility as much as anything else, seeing patience as the main thing he needs to learn. “Too often he is fooled by play-action and tries to get downhill and active too quickly.” But as Coach T says, ”I’d rather say ‘whoa’ than ‘sic ‘em.’” This goes to a late January TDN scouting profile.

Pick 4:19 – CB Chau Smith-Wade, Washington St.

The 2024 draft may have of the great WR classes ever, but the corners aren’t far behind. Even this group has its limits, however, and I see the depth ending just about now. I’m tempted to predict that one of the Round 3 guys could fall this far but I don’t want to be accused of cheating. So instead I’ll look at four new names that should be available in the mid 4th: CBs Renardo Green, Jarrian Jones, Jarvis Brownlee, and Chau Smith-Wade.

The first two were Shrine Bowl standouts who played together at Florida State. Green is a tough but moderately sized press-man corner with the skill to play outside or in the slot. He just has moderate size and needs to prove his pure athleticism. Jones is a sticky cover corner so clean that he didn’t earn a single penalty in 2023. His reported downside is tackling, especially when it comes to run support.

Jarvis Brownlee has experience across the secondary from outside corner to slot and even inside to safety. Those would be Round 2 credentials if he had 4.4 speed, but he doesn’t. All I read suggests something more like 4.55-4.6. Which leads to:

CB Chau Smith-Wade, Wash. St. (RS Junior). 5-10, 187 pounds with 29¾” arms and 9⅛” hands. Turns __ in ___. Not the biggest player but sticky in coverage and able to play in the slot or outside. Exceptionally quick feet gives him very good COD, subject to lapses when he can get tangled up. Smith-Wade also has the football IQ to support various roles, and his hands are flat out awesome. He made some astounding interceptions during the Senior Bowl and also in the practice sessions with film from other games to show these weren’t flukes. He’s also supposed to be reliably good in run support.

I did not catch the Shrine Bowl, but I did watch the Senior Bowl and saw both the Smith-Wade interception and the clips they showed of others in college. Jaw-dropping stuff, I promise. Certainly enough to make me think he’s a Round 4 bargain. It probably sets some kind of record to pick two DBs from Washington State in two consecutive picks, but oh well.

Pick 4:20 (#120 overall) – WR Brenden Rice, USC

Yes, I am still on the Ainias Smith hype train, but these mocks are partly about introducing people to new names. That rules him out for now. And to be honest, I am more attracted to the Hines Ward toughness than anything else I know about the kid. He isn’t the only one who could fit that description. Case in point:

WR Brenden Rice, USC by way of Colorado (Junior). 6-2⅛, 212 pounds with 32⅝-inch arms and 9⅜-inch hands. Turns 22 in March. Have you heard of that new Hollywood spectacular coming to your TV in 2024? It’s called, Son Of Godzilla Jerry Meets The NFL! And you thought Marvin Harrison Jr. had big shoes to fill. Put the last name aside, though, and Brenden Rice is still a fine prospect all on his own. He will be seriously considered as a Round 3-4 option for the big slot role – especially if interviews show anything like his father’s legendary work ethic. The skill set starts with his size, overall toughness, and tremendous blocking ability with a sneaky athleticism that will be too much for even really good, coverage-oriented ILBs and for almost all safeties as well. Brenden Rice will be a factor for every play he is on the field, making his teammates better even when he doesn’t get the ball. He also understands route trees and the other things that go into football IQ as you’d expect from someone who grew up in the industry. What’s missing is instant speed (though he was a good track athlete and understands how to stack defenders). OTOH, he made the Feldman Freaks list for a reason and has apparently hit 23 mph, according to GPS. As the Maine lobsterman said about his 12-pound newborn, “Ayuh. That’ll do.” The weirdest thing is the way some scouting profiles praise him for the very things that others question. It’s a phenomenon I haven’t really seen before.

Name aside, this is a serious bargain pick. Brenden Rice would be a Round 3 selection in any other year and may be even in this one. But with this year’s insane depth… well, there’s just as good a chance that he’ll fall to Round 4, so I am going to use him to illustrate a principle that too many people forget when playing on a simulator: The draft exists to gather talent, and “need” is nothing more than a tiebreaker.

The Steelers haven’t found a DT yet in this draft. And yes, it is a significant issue. I published a whole article that explains the issue well. WR? Not so much because Arthur Smith’s offense devalues the WR3 spot. And yes, Round 4 should include (finally!) a few DT prospects who offer fair Round 4 value. Names like Justin Eboigbe, Keith Randolph Jr., Leonard Taylor II, and maybe even Jaden Crumedy come to mind.

So this is a perfect example of the problem. Should I pick a Round 3 talent at a position of lesser need, or a Round 4 talent at a position of higher need?

Brenden Rice, welcome to Pittsburgh. And if your dad wants to visit, and maybe give a master class or two? The door is open.

Pick 6:19 (#196 overall, plus compensatory picks) – RB Jonathan Brooks, Texas [INJURY]

Jonathan Brooks is one of the most talented backs in this year’s class; a downhill slasher with good vision who ought excel in outside-zone schemes such as the one we expect Arthur Smith to import. Brooks would never drop into Day 3, let alone Round 6, if not for a serious injury. He tore an ACL in November.

Teams expect RBs to provide immediate value; he can’t do that, and thus I think it’s fair to predict a severe fall in the draft compared to his overall level of talent. Pittsburgh has enough RBs in place to afford a redshirt year. Thus the pick makes sense for us before it might for other teams.

Let the young man heal up completely and then enjoy a steal of steals from 2025 on.

RB Jonathon Brooks, Texas (Junior). 6-0, 210 pounds with ___” arms and ___” hands. Turns 21 in July. ACL tear in November. See hole; cut through hole; make tackler pay; and then hit the jets if tackler and his pals couldn’t pony up enough scratch to wrestle Brooks to the ground. Profiles as perfect for the outside-zone attack that Arthur Smith prefers.

NOTE: Brooks will not be here in Round 6 if he has any chance of making a rookie contribution. Change the name if you think he might.

Pick 7:20 QB Austin Reed, W. Kentucky (#237 overall, plus compensatory picks)

My hypothetical offseason left Pittsburgh with only two QBs. The team needs three, and a small-school phenom fits the bill perfectly. All credit goes to Tony Calderone for pointing him out in a really fine interview (see below).

QB Austin Reed, W. Kentucky (RS Senior). 6-0⅞, 223 lbs. with 9¾” hands. Turns 24 in February. Reportedly turned down significant money offers from Power 5 programs. This long Steelers Depot interview after his remarkable week at the Senior Bowl points to his absolutely remarkable statistical production and special ability to defeat pressure. It’s Round 1 stuff for someone who does it in the SEC. What does it mean against Conference USA competition? Or even Shrine Bowl competition? Note that his school runs a pure Air Raid offense, which produces nutty results. Reed’s predecessor, Bailey Zappe (now of the Patriots), set the all-time FBS passing record while there. According to this PFN scouting profile, Reed has plenty of arm if not special, a good quick release, and remarkable timing/anticipation for leading receivers.

CONCLUSION

It’s way too early for me to have any strong opinions about the draft, but I nevertheless think this was a useful exercise. The combination of Mims and Frazier should make Pittsburgh’s o-line a major strength in the years to come. Jaden Hicks and Chau Smith-Wade will go a long way toward reinforcing the midfield and pass defense, while also helping on special teams. Brenden Rice will make the WR room better with his attitude alone while also opening up the wider formations that even Arthur Smith needs to use from time to time.

The late-round picks focus even more on long-term value. Round 6 offers a running back who will spend his rookie year on IR, and thereafter secure that position moving forward even if the Steelers choose to move on from Najee Harris as a cost-cutting maneuver. And the final selection targets a late-round QB, boom-or-bust flier who would go in Round 1 if he’d compiled his statistics against Power 5 opponents. Who knows? Maybe he will just that good against the big boys too.

I walk away happy and smug. Let me know what you think in the comments.