I know it’s almost funny to ask that question. Beat the Kansas City Chiefs? The Pittsburgh Steelers can’t even win a playoff game. Their goal should be to make the postseason, which is no guarantee given how competitive the conference is. And their focus is always on winning the division, knocking off the Baltimore Ravens, not the Chiefs.
But at the end of the day, the Steelers’ organizational goal is to win the Super Bowl. If you want to re-establish the standard in Pittsburgh, get it back where it belongs, this is how you have to think, act and talk. To do that, for now and the foreseeable future, that road goes through Kansas City.
The Chiefs are the repeat champion. They’re going for a three-peat. They have Patrick Mahomes, the top quarterback of his generation, already one of the greatest of all-time. Even in a year that Kansas City had its problems, an offense not nearly as potent as previous years, the Chiefs still turned it on for the playoffs, playing fantastic defense and beating the NFL’s best teams to win another ring.
The question every team, not just the Steelers, must ask themselves is how do you top those guys? If you can’t do that, nothing else matters. Your only way to win is to simply avoid them. Hope they get tripped up by someone else along the way. That’s what happened with the New England Patriots. In the three years the Steelers made the Super Bowl, they never played the Patriots outside of the regular season. And in three years where they played the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, they lost all three times.
But knowing the Chiefs will be an obstacle for the next several years, at the least, how do you beat them? There’s no easy answer, no magic wand to wave, and there won’t be a “just do this!” solution in this article. If that existed, the Steelers (and rest of the NFL) would already be doing it.
Big picture, there are really three good ways to beat Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Hold Him To 17
In most years, this is difficult to do. But the Chiefs were only the 15th-ranked scoring offense in 2023. For once, they looked mortal and relied on their running game and defense more than ever to win. Their 371 total points were the fewest they’ve scored since 2016, back when they played 16-game seasons and Alex Smith started at quarterback. In 2023, the Chiefs scored more than 30 points in a game, including the postseason, three times. By comparison, Pittsburgh did it twice.
The goal to beat Kansas City was to hit 18 points. In games where the Chiefs scored 17 or less, they went 3-4. In games where they scored 18 or more, they went 12-2.
The Steelers can do 18. It doesn’t come as easy as it should but they’re capable of doing it, so long as they get even average quarterback play. Win in the red zone, generate a couple of third-down stops, and there’s a path to win even without putting up a bunch of points.
Of course, the concern is that the Chiefs will replenish their skill positions. They know they need wide receiver help and more potency on offense. And they’re likely to address it this offseason if they can spend free agency locking down DT Chris Jones and CB L’Jarius Sneed. Still, TE Travis Kelce won’t play forever, and he’ll retire long before Mahomes, losing his top target.
Win the turnover battle
Even Kansas City isn’t impervious to one of football’s most fundamental elements: the turnover battle. The Chiefs succeeded in the postseason because they didn’t get beat in the turnover battle. Against top-seeded Baltimore, they went plus-three. Against San Francisco, they were even, two turnovers from each side. For the Chiefs, a tie is a win. Mahomes can make that work.
The only postseason game they lost the turnover battle was against the Buffalo Bills, minus-one, thanks to WR Mecole Hardman fumbling out of the end zone. The Bills nearly won, or at least would’ve tied the game, with a field goal that missed, but the Chiefs turned around their turnover mark. In the regular season, they were minus-11. In the postseason, they were plus-two.
Five of their six losses occurred when they lost the turnover battle. Even Mahomes will struggle with limited possessions, missing out on chances to score and the opposition getting golden opportunities.
Pressure Mahomes
While harder to quantify, pressuring Mahomes can work. I still think back to his Super Bowl loss, under siege the entire game due to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ pass rush. Mahomes was sacked *only* three times that day but was pressured countless others. The Chiefs lost 31-9, one of their worst defeats of the Reid/Mahomes era.
Conjuring a plan to accomplish that isn’t so simple. Mahomes is excellent against the blitz. Send extra defenders at your own peril. Ideally, getting home with four, perhaps creatively sending that fourth rusher, is the best path. But it’s easier said than done.
None of this is revelatory. These are thoughts the rest of the league has. Many have tried, few have succeeded. But there are only so many broad-based ways to win (individual game planning and tendency study creates another layer to discuss). But it is the big question that has to be asked in that room. Roster building is about focusing on your team and your identity. That’s key. But secondary to that is asking questions about the teams you face. What are the strengths in your division? If you’re facing a group with talented receivers, you better have some good corners. If you’re facing top-tier running backs, your front seven has to be stout.
Those are always considerations made when thinking about how to win. Not just yourself, but the opponent. The Steelers will get another crack at Mahomes sometime during the 2024 season when the Chiefs visit Acrisure Stadium. Another chance, an opportunity to right the ship, though even that matchup is slightly skewed. Odds are high that if Pittsburgh ever faces Kansas City in the postseason, as it did in 2021, it’ll be in Arrowhead.
At the top of the food chain are the Chiefs. Unless and until the Steelers have a strategy beyond the luck of avoiding them, they’re not going to get where they want to go.
