Though Arthur Smith is in lock-step with the Pittsburgh Steelers’ broad philosophy, devoted to the running game and being a physical, downhill bunch, there are key differences between what the Steelers have done and how Smith’s system operates.
From a personnel standpoint, there could be two key changes coming.
1. The absence of a Steelers’ slot receiver
2. The addition of a true fullback
As we’ve noted, the Falcons weren’t a heavy 11-personnel team under Arthur Smith, three-receiver sets. In fact, in 2023, they were dead last in 11 personnel usage, using it only 17 percent of the time. And this was a 7-10 Falcons’ team. Not exactly a squad grinding the clock and sitting on fourth-quarter leads.
Last year wasn’t a one-off. Since becoming the Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator in 2019, his offenses have always ranked among the lowest in three-receiver sets. As Dave Bryan listed, Smith’s units have been last or 31st in four of his five seasons. His “top” year came in 2019, finishing 26th at just over half the time.
Pittsburgh ranked 8th-most last season in 11 personnel, 71 percent of the time. That means there’s a 54 percent difference between the Steelers and Falcons’ 11 personnel rates. That’s a serious change.
Now, the Steelers can still have a “slot” receiver out of two-receiver sets, Twin wide receivers to the same side, or they could spread things out and put a receiver or tight end in the slot. But as for a slot and No. 3 receiver, an Allen Robinson II or a Calvin Austin III, it’s a significantly smaller role.
Last week, I wrote about Pittsburgh’s need to improve slot production that had been missing the past two seasons. But Atlanta was less productive than the Steelers were in terms of slot wide receiver targets, and it’s not a big component of Arthur Smith’s system. So it’s no longer much of a need. With Allen Robinson’s bloated contract and Calvin Austin having a bit-part in the offense when the room got healthy, there isn’t a highly involved player losing out in Smith’s system. The offense can make the transition without much cost.
Pittsburgh could still add a wide receiver for outside depth, and WR Diontae Johnson is entering the final year of his deal, but expect plenty of two-receiver sets going forward. Not three. And watch out for Falcons’ WR Mack Hollins making his way to Pittsburgh, especially if Miles Boykin isn’t re-signed.
If the Steelers remove a slot receiver from the field, who will replace him? There will be more tight-end usage. Smith’s offenses heavily feature at least two of them on the field. Here’s how his 12 personnel usage has ranked year-over-year since 2019.
Arthur Smith 12 Personnel Usage
2019 Titans: 5th-most (30 percent)
2020 Titans: 2nd-most (34 percent)
2021 Falcons: 11th-most (23 percent)
2022 Falcons: 6th-most (25 percent)
2023 Falcons: 1st in NFL (42 percent)
Compare that to the Steelers in 2023, finishing 20th league-wide with only 18 percent of their snaps out of 12 personnel. Now, they leaned on 12/13 more often late in the season during their three-game regular season winning streak to get into the playoffs. But expect an uptick here.
Along with that, expect to see the fullback back in Pittsburgh. Gone since 2018, when Roosevelt Nix’s career winded down, Smith’s offenses have been distinct with their fullback use. Some more data on 21 personnel:
Arthur Smith 21 Personnel Usage
2020 Titans: 9th-most (10 percent)
2021 Falcons: 3rd-most (22 percent)
2022 Falcons: 5th-most (21 percent)
2023 Falcons: 5th-most (20 percent)
And that doesn’t even count 22 personnel, where the 2023 Falcons ranked second-most at 10 percent. In Atlanta, Smith’s fullback was Keith Smith. Over the past three years, he’s logged at least 20 percent of the Falcons’ offensive snaps, a near-exclusive blocker with eight receptions, two carries, and zero touchdowns in five years with Atlanta. In 2020, the Titans used Khari Blasingame, who logged 16 percent of the team’s offensive snaps. Those numbers suggest the Steelers’ slot receiver is making way for a fullback.
Perhaps there will be a Smith and Smith reunion this offseason. Keith Smith is slated to become an unrestricted free agent. New Falcons’ OC Zac Robinson comes from the Sean McVay tree, which isn’t exactly fullback-friendly, and it’s likely Smith lands elsewhere. Age is an issue, Smith turns 32 in April, but he might be able to squeeze out one more season. And he’d know exactly how the offense will be run. Smith’s also logged plenty of time on special teams, over 200 snaps in seven straight seasons. He’ll also be a cheap contract.
Of course, there will be a conversation around TE Connor Heyward. Could he make the move to fullback? Pittsburgh’s viewed him as a tight end since drafting him in 2022. He’s always worked in the tight end room, lined up there, and has very few snaps at fullback. He’s probably carried the ball more in training camp than he has fullback snaps. But his lack of size has always been a concern out on the edge. It’s why the Steelers have aligned him off-ball and even as a slot receiver at times.
Still, even Smith has undersized tight ends, Jonnu Smith and Mycole Pruitt aren’t huge guys, and Pittsburgh values their tight end depth.
Heyward’s likely to see some fullback work, even as just a test, but there’s no guarantee he will switch. In Smith’s system, he utilizes true lead blockers, not versatile pieces who catch and run with the ball.
While there are other differences in Smith’s system, primarily his wide zone philosophy, visually, these personnel grouping adjustments will be the most obvious. Out with the Steelers’ slot receiver, in with the fullback. Compared to the rest of the NFL, Pittsburgh’s offense will look more like 2004 than 2024.
