I wanted to continue learning and providing data on Pittsburgh Steelers’ new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Today’s goal is to look at his prior tendencies and success in the run game, comparing that to Pittsburgh’s recent results, and see what that could mean for the Steelers’ run game scheme in 2024.
First, let’s look at the past two seasons for Pittsburgh’s primary RBs: Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The first table is a breakdown of run types charted by Sports Info Solutions (SIS), including attempts, yards, and yards per attempt (YPA) by season, and sorted by the most total attempts at each Steelers’ run scheme over the span:
Several things jump out. Unsurprisingly, Pittsburgh’s most common run type has been inside zone, with Harris getting the majority of that workload. He also improved last year from a yards perspective on a similar number of attempts (from 3.6 to 4.2 YPA). The latter is also true for Warren, providing a major uptick from 2.9 to 5.0 YPA, albeit far fewer attempts.
Something that I didn’t expect to see was the most attempts on the table, outside zone runs from Harris in 2022. Those 98 attempts went for 4.3 YPA, his healthiest run type with substantial volume, and also retained that average last season on fewer opportunities (43 attempts). This is very encouraging considering Smith’s reputation and history of running outside zone primarily.
The other side of that coin are Warren’s results, with 22 attempts in each of the last two seasons, with lesser 3.9 and 3.6 YPA results in 2023 and ’23. So, much better trend for him on inside zone runs last year on 31 attempts, which was his highest total by run type.
It’s also interesting to see the most common run types and how it shook out by season and rusher. Following inside and outside zone, pitch was the third most common run type for Pittsburgh over the last two years. Large uptick in 2023, with only 14 attempts from both rushers in 2022, compared to 58 last season. Harris was less successful, with an abysmal 0.4 YPA on ten attempts in 2022, then improving to 3.7 last year on 31 attempts. Warren was impressive with 5.5 and 5.8 YPA, and the improvement rather impressive considering the large increase in attempts (from four to 27 in 2023).
Outside of the three most common run types, Harris’ most notable volume increase was Power, from 12 to 27 attempts, which also trended positively from 4.1 to 4.8 YPA the last two years.
Other volume increases included Draw (seven to 12 attempts), Trap (five to eight attempts), Wham (two to eight attempts), Counter (four to nine attempts), and FB Dive (none to one). While the opportunities were more limited, improvements in YPA on that list were Draw (4.9 to 5.3), Trap (4.0 to 7.5), and Counter (1.3 to 3.6), and Wham was particularly poor in both seasons (2.0 and 1.4).
Opportunities increased for Warren overall due to encouraging play in 2023. Other than the top three run types previously discussed, the only ones he saw less opportunities this year were Stretch (eight to seven attempts) and Sweep (one to none). Improved YPA trends include Stretch (3.1 to 5.7), and Wham (7.0 to 7.3), with much better results in the seldomly used concept than Harris.
Warren had several run types with carries in 2023 only. This included Power (15 attempts, 5.7 YPA), Trap (four attempts, 7.3YPA), Counter (three attempts, 5.0 YPA), and Backward Pass (three attempts, 9.0 YPA). Very healthy YPA numbers, best among the duo with the exception of Harris’ 7.5 YPA on Trap in 2023 on five attempts.
Here is a more summarized table of the above data, with the RBs totals over the two-year span, and the final column their combined totals:
In totality for Pittsburgh, we see inside and outside zone were used the most by far the last two seasons. Not stellar YPA results, but each hovered around the old school ideal of 4.0 YPA, with the slight edge going to outside zone at 4.2 YPA. As I implied earlier, Warren led the charge with 4.2 inside zone YPA, while Harris held that crown at 4.3 outside zone YPA. That is encouraging and hopefully can be built upon by Smith.
Warren largely posted healthier YPA results, with nine Steelers’ run schemes featuring a 5.0 or better, and some of that attributed to fewer carries. Other than outside zone, the only Steelers’ run scheme where Harris had the stronger YPA was Sweep (eight attempts, 5.4 YPA) compared to Warren’s lone attempt going for no gain. Harris had a 5.0 YPA or better on draw (5.1), trap (6.2), and sweep (5.4).
Now, let’s look at Arthur Smith’s time as an offensive coordinator with the Tennessee Titans from 2019-2020. The following table is a similar view, which I left sorted by the Steelers’ most common run schemes to easily see similarities and differences between the two:
As expected, we see the difference in Smith’s higher outside zone usage (227 attempts), which featured their second-best 5.9 YPA by run type regardless of attempts. That will hopefully bode well for the 2024 Steelers, with the findings on Harris’ outside zone success particularly encouraging. While inside zone was used less by Smith than Pittsburgh, his time in Tennessee featured a healthier 4.4 YPA (Steelers had 4.0).
A staggering difference was Smith usage of Lead, his third most common run type as Tennessee’s OC. In those two seasons, 145 attempts and a nice 5.7 YPA given that volume, compared to a minimal three attempts and 4.7 YPA for Pittsburgh. Definitely expected Smith’s units to have more usage, but wow. This points to a high probability of bigger personnel, including a fullback for Pittsburgh in 2024, and will be fascinating to watch play out.
Here are the other run types that were used more by Smith than Pittsburgh:
Pitch: 86 attempts, 4.5 YPA (PIT 72 attempts, 4.1 YPA).
Power: 58 attempts, 4.3 YPA (PIT 54 attempts, 4.9 YPA).
Stretch: 59 attempts, 3.4 YPA (PIT 44 attempts, 3.6 YPA).
Pitch was the most effective of this list in Smith’s two years as an OC, while Pittsburgh’s RB duo had better YPA on power and stretch runs.
Runs that were utilized more by Pittsburgh than Smith:
Duo: PIT (62 attempts, 3.6 YPA). Smith (60 attempts, 5.2YPA).
Draw: PIT (34 attempts, 6.0 YPA). Smith (two attempts, 2.0 YPA).
Zone-counter: PIT (18 attempts, 7.0 YPA). Smith (14 attempts, 5.7 YPA).
Trap: PIT (17 attempts, 6.4 YPA). Smith (four attempts, 2.3 YPA).
Wham: PIT (16 attempts, 3.6 YPA). Smith (one attempt, 3.0 YPA).
Counter: PIT (16 attempts, 3.3 YPA). Smith (11 attempts, 3.7 YPA).
Sweep: PIT (nine attempts, 4.8 YPA). Smith (one attempt, 15.0 YPA).
Jet Sweep: PIT (eight attempts, 7.9 YPA). Smith (NONE).
Backwards Pass: PIT (three attempts, 9.0 YPA). Smith (two attempts, 5.5 YPA).
This laundry list points to Pittsburgh trying a bit of everything in 2023 in attempts to get the run game going after early struggles. One of the most encouraging edges for Smith is duo, with a much healthier YPA on very similar attempts. Volume jumps out on draws, with Smith rarely touching the concept and Pittsburgh tripling his YPA number despite the vast attempt difference. Also, no jet sweeps to RBs in Smith’s OC tenure, compared to eight for Pittsburgh. All eight went to Warren, with healthy YPA to boot. Will be interesting if Smith scraps those opportunities in 2024 similar to his Titans days.
So, Pittsburgh has primarily ran inside zone the last two seasons, while Smith’s top run type was outside zone in Tennessee. Harris had a higher volume and success in those concepts than I expected, which is encouraging to see. Of the most used concepts, Warren fared better on inside zone than outside, which was also a bit surprising. Pitch will likely remain a key concept, with Warren faring the best for Pittsburgh the last two years in YPA. Harris had increased usage and yardage in power, which Smith utilized more than Pittsburgh but less YPA.
Warren had improved YPA in stretch and wham, with the former being utilized far more by Smith (only one wham attempt). Power, trap, counter, and backward pass were successful for Warren in 2023, with the former the only concept substantially used by Smith.
Very excited to continue learning this offseason, but especially excited after this dive. Calling fewer concepts, and hopefully more consistently, is hopefully on the docket for the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024.
