The Pittsburgh Steelers officially have a new offensive coordinator now in Arthur Smith and if he stays true to his history from the last five years, we’re likely to see quite a bit of heavy personnel usage from the team in the 2024 season. That obviously means that three wide receiver personnel groupings on offense are likely to decrease in Pittsburgh. Assuming that notion/speculation holds true, it’s going to be hard for the Steelers to attract any real notable free-agent wide receivers during the offseason.
Included in this post is a table of statistical data of only wide receivers from the last five seasons where Smith has coached. Obviously, the past three seasons he was the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. The two seasons prior to those he was the offensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans. As you can see, the wide receivers highlighted in yellow in the respective years were the ones to receive the third-most targets.
Now, when you look at the list of those five highlighted players, Van Jefferson, Damiere Byrd, Calvin Ridley, Adam Humphries, and Tajae Sharpe, make sure to look at their individual snap counts in the respective years. Those five players averaged just 325 offensive snaps a season with Smith running the offense. Additionally, I will go ahead and point out that those five players averaged 34.6 targets, 20.8 receptions, 241.4 receiving yards, and two touchdowns over the span of the last five seasons.
In 2023, Allen Robinson II was the third-most targeted wide receiver on the Steelers’ roster with 49 in total. He caught 34 of those passes for 280 yards but did not have any touchdowns. Behind Robinson at the wide receiver position in 2023 was Calvin Austin III, who registered 30 total targets on his way to compiling just 17 catches for 180 yards and one touchdown.
Barring him taking a huge pay cut in the coming weeks, Robinson will likely see his contract terminated by the start of the 2024 NFL league year in March. If that happens, the Steelers would be left with just three wide receivers under contract for 2024 who caught passes in 2023. That short list would consist of Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Austin. While the Steelers could choose to re-sign unrestricted WR Miles Boykin this offseason, he’s more of a special teams asset than anything else.
So, where does all of this lead us? Well, if the Steelers are in the market this offseason for a free-agent wide receiver, odds are very good that such a target won’t be a high-profile one. There has been a lot of “expert” speculation to start this offseason that WR Tyler Boyd or WR Michael Thomas could potentially land in Pittsburgh this offseason but quite honestly, I don’t see that happening for either. Not only because of the money aspect but the potential usage aspect as well.
Last season with the Cincinnati Bengals, Boyd caught 67 passes on 98 total targets for 667 yards and two touchdowns. As for Thomas last season, he caught 39 passes on 64 total targets for 448 yards and a touchdown with the New Orleans Saints. He also registered those stats in just 10 games as well. Both players are going to likely want to sign with teams that will give them the potential of having a fair target share as a second or third wide receiver. In short, Pittsburgh isn’t likely to be such a favorable destination for either.
More than likely, an offseason outside free agent wide receiver addition by the Steelers will come in the form of a much lower-profile player. Alex Kozora suggested such a possibility a few days ago in the form of Mack Hollins, due to him playing for the Falcons and thus Smith last season. Hollins, as Kozora pointed out, has special teams value to boot, something that both Boyd and Thomas don’t have at this point in their respective careers. While Hollins might not ultimately land in Pittsburgh, someone comparative to him might and you can bet it would be via a very cheap contract to boot.
Regardless of what does or doesn’t happen this offseason in free agency for the Steelers at the wide receiver position, we could, however, ultimately see the team select one during the 2024 NFL Draft. After all, Johnson will be in the final year of his current contract in 2024, and assuming he’s not extended this offseason, the team might think about drafting a wide receiver that could hopefully be developed to fill his shoes in 2025.
In closing, it’s advisable to lower your offseason sights as a fan of the Steelers when it comes to a potential free-agent wide receiver addition. I mean really lower them. While the team might venture down such an addition path in free agency, such a player, if added, is likely to be one with special teams value in addition to being very thankful for a receiving role that might at best include 25 total targets in 2024. Smith’s history over the last five seasons definitely backs up such a role.
