Today I wanted to look at the QB prospects in the upcoming NFL draft. The chart shows the 2024 Pro Football Focus grades and current Big Board that updates through the draft process:
Caleb Williams, USC (No. 1): 90-plus overall grade (OVR) each of the last three seasons. Games played (10, 14, and 12 in 2023), attempts (212, 502, 394), improved completion rates (64.2, 66.5, 68.0), yards (1,912, 4,539, 3,647), YPA (9.0, 9.0, 9.3), touchdowns (21, 42, 30), interceptions (four, five, five), and passer ratings (118.3, 118.9, 117.4). In 2023, 90-plus deep (DEEP), no pressure (NP), and OVR. Mid-80s passing (PASS), high-70s intermediate (INT) but a bad 38.9 pressure grade (PRE). Top 10: deep yards (1,342) and screen yards (616). Top 20: adjusted completion rate (ADJ, 77.5). Top 30: big-time throw rate (BTT, 6.2 percent).
Drake Maye, North Carolina (3): 90-plus OVR the last two seasons, playing in more games as well (2021-two, 2022-14, 2023-12). Since 2022, attempts (516, 425), completion rates (65.7, 63.3), yards (4,293, 3,608), YPA (8.3, 8.5), touchdowns (37, 24), interceptions (seven, nine), and passer ratings (109.7, 100.2). In 2023, 90-plus DEEP, NP, and OVR, 80-plus PASS and INT, and a good 59.8 PRE. Top 10: deep yards (1,452) and BTT (7.5-percent). Top 20: turnover worthy plays (TWP, 1.9).
Jayden Daniels – LSU (22). Played 13, 14, and 12 games the last three years. Attempts: 303, 390, 332. Completion rates: 65.0, 68.2, 71.1. Yards: 2,375, 2,913, 3,811. YPA: 7.8, 7.5, 11.5. Touchdowns: 10, 17, 40. Interceptions: 10, three, four. Passer ratings: 86.2, 101.4, 143.7. Impressive upticks in his 2023 Heisman campaign with 90-plus DEEP, OVR, NP, and PRE. High-80 INT, and great PRE grades. Top 10: deep yards (1,347), BTT (8.4), TWP (1.6), and ADJ (79.6).
J.J. McCarthy – Michigan (30). Played 11, 14, and 15 games. Attempts: 58, 323, 333. Completion rates: 58.6, 64.1, 72.1. Yards: 516, 2,724, 2,991. YPA: 8.9, 8.4, 9.0. Touchdowns: five, 21, 22. Interceptions: two, five, four. Passer Ratings: 102.4, 105.9, 116.6. Also trended positively last year, including 90-plus DEEP, INT, OVR, and NP. High-80 PASS, and great 72.9 PRE. Top 10: ADJ (80.0).
Bo Nix – Oregon (36). Games: 10, 13, 14. Attempts: 327, 408, 467. Completion rates: 60.2, 71.8, 77.3. Yards: 2,293, 3,589, 4,454. YPA: 7.0, 8.8, 9.5. Touchdowns: 11, 29, 45. Interceptions: three, seven, three. Passer ratings: 88.9, 115.1, 135.7. Excellent 2023 with 90-plus DEEP, INT, OVR, PASS, NP, and PRE grades. First in TWP (1.0-percent), screen yards (749), and ADJ (85.5). Top 20: time to throw (TTT, 2.44-seconds) and deep yards (999). Our Jonathan Heitritter is impressed with his processing and the possible late first-rounders’ ability to thread in passes; was not as good as Ross McCorkle expected at the Senior Bowl. Started and played well, leading a scoring drive in the game.
Michael Penix Jr. – Washington (47). Games: five, 13, 15. Attempts: 163, 558, 556. Completion rates: 53.4, 64.9, 65.5. Yards: 939, 4,641, 4,906. YPA: 5.8, 8.3, 8.8. Touchdowns: four, 31, 36. Interceptions: seven, eight, 11. Passer ratings: 60.9, 103.3, 106.7). Last season, 90-plus DEEP, NP, OVR, INT, and PASS. And solid 65.3 PRE. First in deep yards (1,787). Top 20: screen yards (567), BTT (7.3), and TWP (2.0). The Senior Bowl participant impressed McCorkle in red-zone drills stacking TDs. Heitritter was underwhelmed. noting poor decisions/inaccuracy compared to his tape.
Michael Pratt – Tulane (67). Games: 11, 13, 11. Attempts: 332, 340, 283. Completion rates: 57.2, 63.2, 65.4. Yards: 2,375, 3,000, 2,405. YPA: 7.2, 8.8, 8.5. Touchdowns: 21, 27, 22. Interceptions: eight, five, five. Passer ratings: 90.6, 111.9, 110.5. In 2023, 80-plus DEEP, INT, and NP. 79.4 OVR, mid-70 PASS, and above average 58.1 PRE. Heitritter noted a good Senior Bowl week, projecting Day 3 slot for him or possibly sneaking in on Day 2.
Spencer Rattler – South Carolina (84). Games: nine, 13, 12. Attempts: 190, 404, 403. Completion rates: 73.7, 65.3, 68.0. Yards: 1,483, 3,032, 3,183. YPA: 7.8, 7.5, 7.9. Touchdowns: 11, 18, 19. Interceptions: five, 12, eight. Passer ratings: 104.3, 90.3, 99.1. Last year, 80-plus INT, DEEP, and NP. 70-plus OVR and PASS., with an above-average 56.5 PRE. Top 10: ADJ (79.4). Top 20: screen yards (553). Top 30: TWP (2.2). Our crew noted him among the top two QBs during Senior Bowl week, playing well as the American team starter. Heitritter projects Rattler as a backup/spot starter with natural arm talent.
Jordan Travis – Florida State (124). Games: 10, 13, 11. Attempts: 193, 353, 325. Completion rates: 62.7, 63.7, 63.7. Yards: 1,521, 3,208, 2,755. YPA: 7.9, 9.1, 8.5. Touchdowns: 15, 24, 20. Interceptions: six, five, two. Passer ratings: 100.1, 109.8, 108.4. Last season: 90-plus DEEP and NP. 80-plus OVR, PASS, and INT. 50.6 PRE, slightly above average. Top 20: screen yards (509) and TWP (2.1). Our Melanie Friedlander pointed to a gruesome injury (he should be healthy by May) in the Shrine Bowl roundtable podcast.
Austin Reed – Western Kentucky (142). Played 14 and 12 games the last two years. Attempts: 605, 471. Completion rates: 64.6, 61.6. Yards: 4,744, 3,338. YPA: 7.8, 7.1. Touchdowns: 40, 31. Interceptions: 11, 11. Passer ratings: 103.1, 95.1. In 2023, 70-plus DEEP, OVR, INT, but poor 75.7 NP. High 60 PASS, and below average PRE (45.3). Top 10: screen yards (680). Top 20: TTT (2.43). Had a rough Shrine Bowl game, going 5-of-11 for 36 yards (3.3 YPA), an interception, and a 15.7 passer rating.
Joe Milton III – Tennessee (156). Played more in 2023 with 354 attempts, 64.7 completion rate, 2,809 yards, 7.9 YPA, 20 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a 102.0 passer rating. Last year, low 80 INT (slightly above average). 70-plus OVR, NP (bad), and PASS (below average). Bad 62.8 DEEP, and 57.1 PRE (above average). Top 10: screen yards (691). Top 20: TWP (2.0). Heitritter noted a big arm for the Senior Bowl participant but decision-making, processing, and accuracy weaknesses. In the game, showed ability throwing on the run but took bad sacks and had a poor end-zone interception after throwing across his body.
Taulia Tagovailoa – Maryland (241). Games: 13, 12, 12. Attempts: 478, 392, 441. Completion rates: 68.4, 66.8, 66.0. Yards: 3,842, 3,001, 3,386. YPA: 8.0, 7.7, 7.7. Touchdowns: 26, 18, 25. Interceptions: 11, eight, 11. Passer ratings: 101.1, 96.5, 97.6. In 2023, 90-plus DEEP. High-80 NP. 70-plus OVR, with below average PASS and INT, and a bad 34.3 PRE standing out negatively. Top 20: screen yards (609). Top 30: deep yards (919). Friedlander’s “best among a poor position group” at the Shrine Bowl with a good game too (142 passing yards, two rushing TDs and a 97.9 QB rating).
Carter Bradley – South Alabama (245). Played more the last two years. Games: 13, 11. Attempts: 427, 328. Completion rates: 64.2, 67.4. Yards: 3,335, 2,650. YPA: 7.8, 8.1. Touchdowns: 28, 19. Interceptions: 12, seven. Passer ratings: 98.2, 102.3. Last season, low-80 NP (below average), 60-plus OVR, PASS (bad), and INT (bad), along with a terrible 27.3 PRE. Top 20: TTT (2.45). Top 30: screen yards (496) and ADJ (75.8). Made a couple of plays during Senior Bowl practices and had similar game too.
Sam Hartman – Notre Dame (276). Games: 14, 12, 12. Attempts: 508, 430, 305. Completion rates: 58.9, 62.8, 62.3. Yards: 4,231, 3,700, 2,696. YPA: 8.3, 8.6, 8.8. Touchdowns: 39, 38, 24. Interceptions: 14, 12, eight. Passer ratings: 99.9, 108.1, 106.1. Last year, 90-plus DEEP and NP, upper-70 PASS and OVR but bad INT (66.4) and particularly PRE (36.8). Top 10: BTT (7.5). Some good Senior Bowl practices, per McCorkle, but severely struggled in game.
Kedon Slovis – BYU (286). Games: nine, 11, eight. Attempts: 298, 316, 267. Completion rates: 64.8, 58.5, 57.3. Yards: 2,151, 2,394, 1,705. YPA: 7.2, 7.6, 6.4. Touchdowns: 11, 10, 12. Interceptions: eight, nine, six. Passer ratings: 87.2, 81.1, 82.1. In 2023, 80-plus NP, 70-plus DEEP, INT, and OVR. High-60 PASS. Started in the Shrine Bowl, going 5of-7 for 49 yards with a 90.8 QB rating.
Devin Leary – Kentucky (295). Games: 12, six, 13. Attempts: 430, 118, 208. Completion rates: 65.6, 61.1, 56.1. Yards: 3,435, 1,265, 2,750. YPA: 8.0, 6.6, 7.4. Touchdowns: 35, 11, 25. Interceptions: five, four, 12. Passer ratings: 112.3, 90.7, 88.7. Last season, high-80 NP (above average), 80-plus INT, low-70 OVR, PASS (below average) and DEEP (bad) and a 30.9 PASS that was also bad. Top 30: average depth of target (ADOT, 11.1). Our Joe Clark thought he was the best QB at the Shrine Bowl. Has a big arm but touch/accuracy need work.
Jason Bean – Kansas (303). Games: nine, 10, nine. Attempts: 182, 136, 199. Completion rates: 56.0, 64.0, 62.3. Yards: 1,252, 1,280, 2,130. YPA: 6.9, 9.4, 10.7. Touchdowns: six, 14, 18. Interceptions: six, four, seven. Passer ratings: 74.7, 116.7, 114.1. Last year, high-80 DEEP, low-80 NP, 70-plsu PASS, OVR, and INT with a 58.2 PRE. Illness prevented him from participating in the Shrine Bowl.
John Rhys Plumlee – UCF (308) played more since 2022. Games: 13, 10. Attempts: 347, 259. Completion rates: 63.4, 62.9. Yards: 2,609, 2,300. YPA: 7.5, 8.9. Touchdowns: 14, 15. Interceptions: eight, eight. Passer ratings: 90.1, 98.0. In 2023, 90-plus INT, DEEP, and NP. 80-plus OVR and PASS, 61.6 PRE. Clark noted nice pocket movement but poor otherwise for the Shrine Bowl participant. In the game, he went 8-of-10 for 81 yards with a 100.4 QB rating and a 1-yard rush TD. Took a bad sack but eluded pressure often.
Pittsburgh will likely add to its QB room this offseason. Whether that’s in free agency or via draft is the question, and I can’t wait to see how it shakes out. While the PFF Big Board will certainly change, I hope you enjoyed and learned something from the grade data and notes from the All-Star games.
