Forget about Pro Football Focus’ opinion. Or any analyst. It doesn’t matter. I don’t mean that as a slight. This statement includes myself. The only thing that matters when it comes to Defensive Player of the Year is the voters. The people who actually cast the ballots that hand out the hardware.
And we still don’t know who they’re going to pick. The two favorites are Cleveland Browns DE Myles Garrett and the Pittsburgh Steelers’ T.J. Watt. But if yesterday’s All-Pro voting was any indication, and it normally is, Garrett is going to win it.
Garrett and Watt each made First-Team All-Pro. But the voting wasn’t equal. Garrett received more first-place votes than Watt, 40 to 32, and more points total, 129 to 112. The same AP voters who select the All-Pro team also vote on the “official” NFL awards, the ones announced during NFL honors in three weeks and go down in official league history. If more are voting for Garrett now than Watt, not much is going to change that by February.
While history is limited, last year’s voting provides a window into that. In 2022, San Francisco 49ers’ Nick Bosa and Dallas Cowboys’ Micah Parsons were First-Team All-Pro EDGE rushers. But Bosa received more first-place votes, 49 to Parsons’ 33.
When it came to Defensive Player of the Year voting, Bosa won it by a huge margin, garnering 46 of the 50 possible votes. Parsons received zero (three other players received the remaining four first-place votes).
The same scenario seems to be unfolding. The final results might be closer than last year. Watt will probably receive some first-place votes, but the majority are likely to go Garrett’s way. Of course, there are other options and Garrett didn’t receive the most first-place votes at his position, LBs Fred Warner and Roquan Smith had more. But that’s comparing different positions on an All-Pro ballot to a singular vote for Defensive Player of the Year. Garrett and Watt have always been the favorites. With yesterday’s results, Garrett should be expected to win.
Is that the right vote? If you ask Cleveland, it is. If you ask Pittsburgh, it isn’t. This isn’t a case of right or wrong, correct or not. This is just a heads up, a signal, getting you prepared for what’s coming. If Garrett isn’t this year’s DPOY, it’ll be a shock. The voters have already spoken, even if we don’t know their official ballot yet.
