The T.J. Watt or Myles Garrett debate will live on forever. Don’t expect Pittsburgh Steelers or Cleveland Browns fans to budge. But there is a group that must decide, at least for 2023. The Associated Press voters choosing this year’s NFL Defensive Player of the Year have Watt and Garrett as the top two names on their ballot. Their votes could go in either direction.
Pro Football Focus is well-known for being in Garrett’s corner. While he lacks the overall volume of box score numbers Watt has, PFF’s advanced metrics and analytics give Garrett the clear edge. Appearing on 93.7 The Fan Tuesday morning, Brad Spielberger admitted that Watt’s surface-level numbers are clearly superior, but he still has to go with Garrett for Defensive Player of the Year.Â
“The stats do matter. You get into that 17-plus sack range, it’s hard to deny…I personally, I guess I have to stick with the PFF data and all that,” he told The Fan. “Myles Garrett, for us, is the top pass rusher. So I’ll go with Myles Garrett.”
Hard to deny but in the end, deny all the same. Spielberger said three players should be considered finalists: Watt, Garrett, and Dallas Cowboys’ LB/EDGE Micah Parsons. All three incredibly talented players. But the tried-and-true numbers point heavily in Watt’s favor.
His 19 sacks led the league for a third season, the first player in official NFL history to ever achieve that feat. Garrett finished the year with 14 sacks and while he was held out of the team’s finale, he recorded just one sack since Week 12. Watt finished the year with a league-leading 36 QB hits compared to Garrett’s 30. Both finished with four forced fumbles, but Watt had far more pass deflections, eight to Garrett’s three, and had an interception and a fumble recovery touchdown. Watt also had more total tackles and tackles for a loss.
Logically, the award should be given to Watt for the second time in his career. But the winner still feels like a jump ball. Garrett remains the oddsmakers’ favorite and there’s a feeling voters believe “he’s due” to win it, a top-flight pass rusher on a very good defense for a team that more emphatically made the playoffs than the Steelers. It’s arguably the wrong way to evaluate things but it reflects how voters might think.
This year’s Defensive Player of the Year won’t be announced for nearly another month during the NFL Honors show on Feb. 8, right ahead of this year’s Super Bowl. If Watt can capture his second trophy, he’ll become just the ninth player to win it multiple times joining a historic group of names that includes Aaron Donald (who won it three times), big brother J.J. Watt, and Reggie White.
