The 10-7 Pittsburgh Steelers will play a Super Wild Card playoff game on Monday afternoon, a road contest against the 11-6 Buffalo Bills. The Steelers will enter the game as huge underdogs following them winning their final three regular-season games. Below are five key things that I believe the Steelers will need to do Monday afternoon at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. to come away with their first playoff win since the 2016 season.
Go Big Or Go Home – On offense, the Steelers have used a lot of heavy-personnel groupings with success when running the football as of late and especially during their last three games of the regular season, all of which were wins. Especially, the use of 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TEs) has worked well for the Steelers. The Bills’ defense, on the other hand, hasn’t handled opposing heavy personnel groupings well this season when it comes to the running game and specifically when it comes to their heavy usage of their nickel package, which includes their incredibly talented CB Taron Johnson being on the field.
With the weather likely to play a significant role in this Super Wild Card meeting, whichever team can run the football the best throughout the contest could go a long way in determining a winner. Because of that, the Steelers’ offense should be expected to use heavy personnel groupings quite frequently against the Bills’ defense to see if running backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren can effectively take over the game. If the Steelers can’t run the football extensively and effectively against the Bills, it’s hard to imagine them leaving Highmark Stadium with a win.
Don’t Get Cold Cooked – Like the Steelers, the Bills will probably look to establish their ground game early and often on Monday and especially if it winds up being a snowy and windy afternoon at Highmark Stadium. The Bills’ top ball carrier is James Cook as he has produced 1,122 yards rushing and two touchdowns this season on 237 carries. Cook was second in the NFL in runs of 10 yards or longer with 33 during the regular season.
Cook is also a threat in the passing game as he enters the playoffs with 44 receptions for 445 yards on four touchdowns. Eight of those 44 receptions produced explosive play gains of 20 yards or longer during the regular season. In short, the Steelers’ inside linebackers will have their hands full with Cook in several facets of the game. If Cook has well over 100 total yards from scrimmage in Monday’s contest, there’s a good chance the Bills will come away with a victory.
No Joshing Around On The Ground – Bills QB Josh Allen is a huge X factor when it comes to this Super Wild Card game and especially when it comes to him doing damage with his legs. For the season, Allen had 111 rushes for 524 yards and an amazing 15 touchdowns, which placed him second overall in the NFL for the 2023 regular season in that statistical category. In total, 59 of his runs resulted in either a touchdown or a first down. He’s also money on QB sneaks on third and fourth downs.
While the Steelers are expected to play a lot of zone coverages on Sunday against the Bills, the unit still must be very cognizant of Allen taking off with the football either via designed runs or scrambles. How effective the Steelers can be controlling Allen’s leg usage will likely go a long way in determining the overall success the Bills have on offense in this contest. He is a dangerous all-around quarterback.
Means To The Ends – The Steelers defense has had problems all season when it comes to tight ends. In fact, opposing tight ends caught 86 passes for 864 yards and seven touchdowns against the Steelers defense during the regular season. on Monday, the Steelers will face a Bills offense that includes several fine tight ends in Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and Quintin Morris. Those three combined to catch 97 passes for 885 yards and five touchdowns on the season.
If the passing games are muted by the weather on Monday, tight ends could wind up playing huge roles when it comes to air distribution of the football. The Steelers fortunately get safeties Minkah Fitzpatrick and Damontae Kazee back on Monday so hopefully those two, combined with safety Eric Rowe and cornerback Patrick Peterson, can be part of a plan that limits the effectiveness of the Bills’ tight ends in the passing game.
Short List Of Long Thirds – In the three games that QB Mason Rudolph started to close out the season, all of which were wins by the Steelers, the offense struggled on third-and-long situations. In fact, on 14 total third downs when seven or more yards were needed, the offense converted just three times with one of those being a run by Harris late against the Seattle Seahawks to seal the game.
In the passing game on those third downs when seven or more yards were needed, Rudolph converted just two of 12 opportunities. One of those was a deep pass to WR George Pickens for 44 yards against press coverage. The weather on Monday will likely make third-and-long situations even tougher when it comes to the passing game so it’s imperative that the Steelers offense stays out of them as much as possible. Moving the football on Monday might be challenging enough because of the weather and several third-and-long situations will make it even more challenging.
