As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys to the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their wild-card game against the Buffalo Bills.
My prediction is at the bottom.
THE STEELERS WILL WIN IF…
1. Josh Allen Turns It Over Twice
That’s the magic number though it obviously offers no guarantee. As we noted earlier this week, QB Josh Allen and the Bills are 3-0 this year when he doesn’t turn it over, 7-3 when he has one, and 1-3 when he has at least two. Creating takeaways is obvious and important but it’s vital to ascribe a number to it. And that number is two.
Allen will make great plays. That’s what he does. The question is if the Steelers can balance that with negative ones to rob a scoring chance (Pittsburgh’s defense led the NFL in red zone takeaways) or create a short field for their offense. It must happen.
2. Pittsburgh’s Ground Game Controls The Clock
Even with the weather expected to be better, the Steelers’ model to victory doesn’t change. Run the ball. Early, often, and effectively. Their best defense is keeping Allen and company on the sideline. Controlling time of possession was a catalyst in Pittsburgh’s three-game winning streak, having the ball for at least 34 minutes in its final two wins. Of course, TOP is simply a reflection of strong offensive play. Converting on third down, winning on first down, not dropping passes, committing penalties, and the like.
3. Steelers’ ‘Safe’ Pressure Works
The Steelers will have to find a way to overcome the loss of T.J. Watt. Nick Herbig and Markus Golden have them in a better place than they were a year ago but the team’s history without Watt isn’t good. An ugly 1-10. They’ll have to conjure up a variety of ways to replace his pressure. Four-man “safe” pressures with an inside linebacker, nickel corner, or safety rushing are something the team’s used far more often in recent weeks, even before losing Watt.
It’s something they may lean on in this game to find ways to get home without needing to send the house, though expect some heavier rushes, too. Pittsburgh blitzed Allen over 60 percent of the time in last year’s meeting.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Mason Rudolph Gets Fooled
The Bills have their secondary injuries but it’s still a veteran group, especially at safety. Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer have been their pairing for years and they hold and disguise coverages, similar to what the New England Patriots did to Pittsburgh in Week 15 (with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, I know). Mason Rudolph can fall into the same trap and throw a pick because the Bills showed a different post-snap rotation. The receivers have to be aware and work through this, too, adjusting their routes based on changing coverages.
2. Special Teams Blunders Doom Them
An obvious one. It may not be a blizzard but winds up to 25-30 miles per hour aren’t a joke. It just feels “ok” when it’s not 50 mph gusts like there would’ve been on Sunday. Winds make snapping, holding, kicking, and punting all much more than “operational” or “routine.” There’s no “gimmies” under these circumstances. So everyone is going to have to be dialed in. Long snapper Christian Kuntz, punter Pressley Harvin III, and kicker Chris Boswell.
Don’t sleep on the coverage units either. If the field is a mess, and it’s not going to be great, one player slipping and losing his lane could lead to a big return. Buffalo just had a 95-yard punt return to help beat Miami in Week 18. And ball security on the kick and punt returns (judging the ball on punts in windy elements for Calvin Austin III is concerning) can’t be the reason why the Steelers lose either.
3. Dalton Kincaid Is Too Much
Even with Minkah Fitzpatrick’s return, the Steelers could be overmatched by rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid. Fitzpatrick figures to draw the first-round draft pick a handful of times in this game but not every down. And with No. 2 WR Gabe Davis out due to a knee injury, Kincaid could draw even more targets.
Pittsburgh allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends this year, six since the Arizona Cardinals loss, and the Bills threw 11 scores to the position this year. Kincaid is going to be a matchup problem and one Buffalo figures to exploit.
Prediction
Bills: 24
Steelers: 16
Regular-Season Prediction Record
10-7
