While I don’t imagine it’s unprecedented, the fact of the matter is that the betting line against the Pittsburgh Steelers this Sunday is rather substantial. The spread is sitting at -10 for Buffalo right now, having stuck at -9.5 initially, which means the flow of the betting indicates the Bills are expected to win by a touchdown and a field goal.
There’s nothing greatly shocking in that, really, when you consider that the Steelers’ average point differential in spite of a 10-7 record was minus-1.8 points while the Bills’ differential was plus-8.2. Add that up and you get 10 points.
But while there’s a level of logic in that, it doesn’t mean anything once the ball is snapped. Predictions and projections are only that. It’s the players on the field and the coaches on the sidelines who determine how the game goes.
“We don’t really care about [being] 10-point underdogs. That’s for Vegas and all the other naysayers out there”, Steelers DL Cameron Heyward told reporters yesterday, via the team’s website. “We understand that the 10-point underdog doesn’t decide the game. It’s in between the lines. It’s the team that executes, the team that wins the turnover battles, the team that wins the rushing battle. Those are the things that matter. The 10-point underdog is just a whole lot of nonsense to us”.
While the Bills and Steelers finished similarly in defensive scoring (Buffalo ranked fourth and Pittsburgh ranked sixth), they placed on wildly opposite ends of the spectrum offensively. The Bills had the sixth-ranked scoring offense at 26.5 points per game while the Steelers ranked 28th at 17.9. And that was with a late-season improvement, including their first two 30-point games of the season.
Both teams are capable of keeping the score low. The Steelers allowed fewer than 20 points nine times and fewer than 15 points five times. The Bills held opponents to under 20 points eight times and under 10 points five times.
But Buffalo put up 30-plus points six times to the Steelers’ two. And at least 20 points 14 times. As mentioned above, the Steelers only in the past three weeks topped 30 points twice, and have scored under 20 points 10 times, including five games of 10 points or fewer. Suffice it to say that the Steelers present a wider range of outcomes with a lower floor and ceiling. But what does any of that matter to those who are actually playing and have a hand in deciding outcomes?
“When we play loose, we play at our best. We don’t need somebody to say we’re not this or that”, Heyward said. “We don’t need you to ride with us or not. We’re just excited for this opportunity. We got a great group of guys that are salivating for this opportunity to play some good ball”.
They should be, considering it’s been a long time since they’ve won a playoff game. The Bills have won four games in the past three playoffs. The Steelers haven’t won one since 2016. The only player who was with the Bills at that time who is still there is Shaq Lawson, and he was a rookie.
