The Pittsburgh Steelers stacked a third straight win to close 2023, with a 17-10 victory against the Baltimore Ravens and encouragingly made the playoffs. In typical fashion against the division rival Ravens, physicality and run game dominance were required in poor weather conditions. For the second season, I am charting, visualizing, and providing takeaways for the all-important quarterback position for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Couple notes. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work that helped me learn much of what I’m using visually. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with batted passes at the line of scrimmage that effect the intended pass location. This week, no passes were removed.
QB Mason Rudolph went 18-for-20 for a stellar 90-percent completion rate, which set a franchise record. Just 152 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, and a 115.0 passer rating. The latter is the second-best in Steelers history in his three starts. Three sacks and three fumbles (one lost) were obviously poor, but his feats as a passer were encouraging giving the circumstances.
No incompletions after the first quarter was also impressive, completing 12-straight to end the game. One explosive passing play, an excellent throw to WR Diontae Johnson on an intermediate post route, threading it between two defenders in stride with excellent YAC for the 71-yard touchdown on third and four. The only other explosive play of the game was listed as a run on the stat sheet, actually a swing pass to RB Jaylen Warren for 23 yards.
This was a prime example of the positive recent trends from Steelers playmakers, who are stepping up well in the YAC department. Moving forward, Pittsburgh’s offense should look to improve on third down (6-of-15, 40-percent), not bad, but will likely need to be stronger in the playoffs against Buffalo.
Let’s examine the 20 charted-passes further, with number of throws at each pass distance for Week 18:
#1. Behind-the-Line: 40-percent. The second play of the game (second and eight) Rudolph took the wide-open screen pass to RB Najee Harris, gaining seven and 12 in YAC. Later in the drive, a screen Johnson a yard behind the line, picking up six on second and ten.
NOTE: Pittsburgh’s second drive had the aforementioned Warren 23 yarder, big play that led to points. First pass was an under-center play-action, throwing to TE Connor Heyward in the flat and picking up just enough with a diving effort on second and two. Then in the red zone, Harris took what looked like a toss (instead of a pass IMO), gaining six yards and 11 “YAC” on second and one, which preceded his 6-yard rushing TD.
In the second quarter, a second and 13 following a false start penalty on C Mason Cole. Rudolph did a nice job to sneak the screen pass between two defenders despite a free rusher to Warren, picking up five yards (seven YAC). Leads to third and eight, unfortunately one of Warren’s two fumbles, recovered by Baltimore.
Within the two-minute warning before halftime against off-coverage, Rudolph showed good pocket presence despite pressure allowed by both tackles, hitting the Warren leak-out for three yards.
Third quarter was the final example, a disastrous drive facing third and 20 (delay of game, G James Daniels allowed sack). It’s a Warren screen from TE alignment, but slips and gains just one yard.
#2. 0-5 air-yards: 30-percent. In the first quarter, Rudolph hit Johnson on the crosser and enjoyed the overall route schemes, getting open and getting just enough on second and five.
Third drive, it’s a fake toss to the left roll right, but the defense isn’t fooled and bumps/tackles Heyward quickly in the flat for just 2 yards on second and five.
Second drive of the second quarter, the second and eight is a checkdown to Harris, forcing a missed tackle, but goes East/West instead of imposing his will on the five-yard gain. Just before halftime, Rudolph was impressively able to get the pass off despite the rusher hitting his arm (T Dan Moore), a checkdown to Warren with a bit of YAC and 7 yards.
Only two passes in the fourth quarter. Both at the line of scrimmage, checkdowns to Harris, and third downs. The first third and six was a fail for no gain, with G Isaac Seumalo allowing pressure, and Rudolph had WR Allen Robinson II open on the crosser (three and out drive). The other was a third and three rollout hitting Harris open on the leak-out, getting just enough to convert, with the drive ultimately leading to a FG with 3:17 left to increase the lead to ten.
#3. 5-10 air-yards: 20-percent. First example was third and one, converting their first opportunity with good pocket presence despite pressure (Cole), throwing away from the LB with a good catch from Johnson (pass behind him) for seven yards.
Another conversion late second quarter, lobbing the pass over the LB on third and six to TE Pat Freiermuth at six air-yards on the out route with YAC down the sideline for 13 yards. His only other target was moments later, a stop route for eight yards on second and 19 following a Rudolph sack fumble (allowed by T Broderick Jones, recovered by Moore).
The following play was Rudolph’s sack/fumble turnover, leading to no points in FG range. These mistakes must be improved with poor conditions expected in the Wildcard Buffalo matchup as well.
T-fourth. 10-15 air-yards: 5-percent. Three-way tie for the final downfield distances, with one pass each. The worst of Rudolph’s two incompletions here, starring down Robinson on an early third and four and throwing a near interception, leading to a punt.
T-fourth. 15-20 air-yards: 5-percent. The lone pass was the Johnson TD, catching the post route at 16 air-yards, with a whopping 55 in YAC on the perfectly placed house call.
T-fourth. Explosive: 5-percent. The only explosive air-yard attempt was also to Johnson, a third and three go-ball incompletion where he slowed up with the pass sailing over his head on the three and out drive.
Here are the dots of completions/incompletions for the game:
The visual of Rudolph’s 18-for-20 game gives great context. Completed every pass at less than ten air-yards, and one-of-three past ten yards. The great news was the completion ended in the end zone in this low scoring inclement weather game where neither club slinged it. Another thing that stands out is a high rate of middle of the field targets (85-percent), completing 94.1-percent of those throws. Encouraging connection in the weather, and hopefully it’s a similar connection in Buffalo.
Now for the heat-maps for charted-passes, then completions only:
One completion of over ten yards, the 16 air-yard house call, in Rudolph’s efficient day in terms of connection. Favored the right side of the field, with the most common area to the right between the right hash and numbers, behind the line to one-air-yard.
Now, here’s all 471 charted throws of 2023, with frequencies by distance and previous averages:
#1. 0-5 air-yards: Season 35.0-percent. Previously 35.3-percent.
#2. 5-10 air-yards: Season 23.8-percent. Previously 23.9-percent.
#3. Behind-the-line: Season 18.5-percent. Previously 17.5-percent.
#4. 10-15 air-yards: Season 13.0-percent. Previously 13.3-percent.
#5. Explosive: Season 12.1-percent. Previously 12.4-percent.
#6. 15-20 air-yards: Season 10.8-percent. Previously 11.1-percent.
The biggest uptick was in behind the line passing, with a full percent bump. All other distances decreased, and 15-20 air-yards seeing the biggest decline to close 2023.
Here are dots for 2023 charted throws, along with completion rates by distance:
PICKETT:
Behind-the-line: Season 51/58 (87.9-percent).
0-5 air-yards: Season 75/99 (75.8-percent).
5-10 air-yards: Season 52/75 (69.3-percent).
10-15 air-yards: Season 19/38 (50-percent).
15-20 air-yards: Season 15/34 (44.1-percent).
Explosive: Season 12/33 (36.4-percent).
Season Total: 224/337 (66.5-percent).
TRUBISKY:
Behind-the-line: Season 12/14 (85.7-percent).
0-5 air-yards: Season 34/44 (77.3-percent).
5-10 air-yards: Season 15/20 (75-percent).
10-15 air-yards: Season 4/10 (40-percent).
15-20 air-yards: Season 5/13 (38.5-percent).
Explosive: Season 4/15 (26.7-percent).
Season Total: 74/116 (63.8-percent).
RUDOLPH:
Behind-the-line: Season 14/14 (100-percent). Previously 7/7 (100-percent).
0-5 air-yards: Season 20/22 (90.9-percent). Previously 14/16 (87.5-percent).
5-10 air-yards: Season 15/16 (93.8-percent). Previously 11/12 (91.7-percent).
10-15 air-yards: Season 7/12 (58.3-percent). Previously 7/11 (63.6-percent).
15-20 air-yards: Season 3/4 (75-percent). Previously 2/3 (66.7-percent).
Explosive: Season 4/9 (44.4-percent). Previously 4/8 (50-percent).
Season Total: 63/77 (81.8-percent).
Small sample, but above 90-percent at ten yards impressively stands out, while also leading Steelers QBs in completion rates at each pass distance.
To close, here are heat maps for charted passes in 2023, then completions only:
CAVEAT: The sample sizes are still quite different for the three QBS, with Rudolph’s maps generously wide given his low opportunities comparatively. Think lighter colors for him.
Encouraging passing performance in poor conditions heading into the thankful playoff opportunity against Buffalo. Can’t wait to see if Pittsburgh can have a similar day, while cleaning up errors on offense that will likely be needed, hopefully resulting in the Steelers first playoff victory since 2016.
