On Monday, the Pittsburgh Steelers saw their 2023 season come to an end as a result of them losing to the Buffalo Bills in a Super Wild-Card game. On the heels of that happening, the team came to terms with 17 players on Reserve/Future contracts. Those additional 17 players being signed gives the team 60 players under contract for 2024 and that means we have our first offseason Rule of 51 to work with as part of looking at the team’s initial salary cap situation.
So, where do we start with this initial 2024 salary cap lookahead for the Steelers? First, I should point out that former NFL agent Joel Corry of CBS Sports has the 2024 NFL salary cap amount projected at $242.5 million. While we won’t know the real amount until a few weeks ahead of the 2024 NFL year starting in March, Corry’s projection is a good place to start this far out.
Next, the Steelers appear poised to roll over $2,340,191 in unused salary cap space from the 2023 season. When coupled with Corry’s cap amount projection of $242.5 million, that would put the Steelers’ adjusted salary cap amount at $244,840,191.
Below is the list of 60 players under contract with the Steelers as of Thursday night. The sum of the cap charges of those top 51 players is $261,729,564. Additionally, the Steelers have $301,114 in dead money on the books for the 2024 season as of Thursday night. This means that Steelers currently have $262,030,678 in Rule of 51 cap charges, which puts them $17,190,487 over the team’s projected adjusted salary cap amount of $244,840,191.
Now, before any of you freak out about the Steelers being a little more than $17 million over their adjusted salary cap amount, please know that overage can be fixed quite easily before the start of the new league year in March, which is when the team needs to compliant.
Let’s first look at some easy cuts that the Steelers can and likely will make in the next several weeks.
Heading that list of potential contract terminations is WR Allen Robinson II, who is scheduled to earn a base salary in 2024 of $10 million. Such a contract termination would free up $10 million in 2024 salary cap space prior to top 51 roster displacement taking place.
Next up as a potential contract termination in the next several weeks is T Chukwuma Okorafor, especially with the sixth-year veteran being due a $4 million roster bonus on March 18. Terminating his contract would free up $8.75 million in 2024 salary cap space prior to him being displaced in the Rule of 51.
If you’re scoring at home, the contract terminations of Robinson and Okorafor would free up a combined $18.75 million in 2024 salary cap space prior to Top 51 roster displacement taking place. Those two moves, based on where the team sits as of Thursday night, would essentially make the Steelers cap compliant based on all projections we are working with.
On top of Robinson and Okorafor potential contract terminations, the team figures to have conversations about a few other players, especially ones with March roster bonuses being due. That list includes DT Larry Ogunjobi, QB Mitch Trubisky, C Mason Cole, and CB Patrick Peterson. Will all four be out the door by the middle of March? I kind of doubt it, but a few of them might be.
Here are the roster bonuses due for those four players: Ogunjobi ($4.75 million), Trubisky ($1 million), Cole ($1.5 million), Peterson ($3 million).
Here are the cap savings for those four players prior to top 51 roster displacement taking place: Ogunjobi ($6,216,666), Trubisky ($2,943,332), Cole ($4,750,000), Peterson ($6,850,000).
In short, the Steelers have plenty of options to choose from and decisions to make when it comes to contract terminations ahead of the 2024 league year starting in March.
Moving on from the obvious short list of potential contract terminations, the Steelers might want to do something with the contract of DT Cameron Heyward at some point during the offseason. He has stated that he doesn’t plan to retire this offseason and has also indicated that a straight pay cut isn’t in his future.
If both of things are true, the Steelers might decide to sign Heyward to a two-year contract extension, one without any new money in 2024. In short, a chunk of Heyward’s $16 million base salary that he is due could be paid out as a signing bonus and then prorated out three total years as part of a two-year contract extension. I estimate that such an extension could be done to free up around $9.5 million in 2024 salary cap space.
Back in 2014, the Steelers signed S Troy Polamalu and TE Heath Miller to two-year contract extensions to lower their cap charges that season. Neither received new money in 2014 as part of those deals so we have a history of the team doing extensions like that for older players. This makes the most sense when it comes to Heyward’s 2024 salary cap charge being lowered. The devil will be in the details as to how much it needs to be lowered and what the base salaries in the additional years will be.
While it might not happen until later in the summer, if at all, the Steelers could decide to free up additional 2024 salary cap space by restructuring the contract of OLB Alex Highsmith. Such a traditional restructuring, if needed, would free up $7,206,000 in 2024 salary cap space. It’s hard to say this early in the offseason if the team will need to go that route with Highsmith but I did want to point out that such a mechanism is available just the same.
As a side note, the Steelers will likely want to enter the start of the new league year in March somewhere between $10-$15 million under the cap. That amount obviously depends on how active they plan on being in the early portions of free agency.
So, now that I have explained the path for the team’s salary cap situation through at least after the start of the new league year in March, where do we look ahead to?
Well, see the mumbo jumbo in the bottom part of the table included in this post? The section under “Projected Future Salary Cap Expenses”? While not overly important between now and until after the draft takes place, those itemized salary cap expenses will need to be accommodated at some point before the start of the 2024 regular season.
The itemized listings that I have under “Projected Future Salary Cap Expenses” should be fairly self-explanatory, especially if you have followed my work for quite awhile. Those itemized values are things that teams around the NFL need to deal with every offseason. My estimated amounts for the itemized future costs should wind up being fairly close.
In 2023, the Steelers entered the regular season with a little more than $6 million in free salary cap space at their disposal. I suspect they be close to budgeting that same amount in 2024. I have a $2 million placeholder for players on the Reserve/Injured list to start the regular season as well. The 2024 rookie pool offset amount estimate of $3.9 million should be in the ballpark as well and the same goes for a full practice squad that teams must accommodate under the cap.
All told, those itemized amounts under “Projected Future Salary Cap Expenses” total out at $18,397,200. Mind you, it won’t be that exact amount when the ink dries, but it shouldn’t be too far off from that amount just the same. Even so, those are items that must be accounted for much later in the offseason and thus not by the middle of March. Just recognize that they are there and need to be accommodated at some point.
Much like the situation the Steelers face with Heyward in the coming weeks or months, there are other things that we need to be on the lookout for this offseason. Will the team sign TE Pat Freiermuth to a contract extension and if so, by how much will his 2024 salary cap charge increase as a byproduct of that? RB Najee Harris, whose fifth-year option for the 2025 season is due by early May, could also be another candidate for an extension if the team wants to do that this offseason. He’s less likely than Freiermuth to get an extension done, but such a scenario is not totally out of the question. The same can probably be said about RB Jaylen Warren so just file that away for now.
Overall, the Steelers’ 2024 salary cap situation and outlook isn’t overly daunting when you look ahead like I have done in this post. Will they go hog-wild in free agency this year? Probably not as much as most will want them to do, but they should make several signings from the outside, per the norm.
Finally, please remember that this post is designed to give an early, yet loose, snapshot of the team’s 2024 salary cap situation with the offseason just barely underway. The Rule of 51 total will be fluid for the next several weeks, and it will likely change drastically not long before the 2024 league year starts in March. Should, however, anything significant transpire in the next few weeks, I’ll make sure to dedicate a new post addressing the updates.
