Over the next few weeks I plan to go through the Steelers’ position groups to identify the areas of want and need with some quick descriptions of targets that draftniks should start to consider. The tables are organized by my initial grades and then my too-early-to-reveal uncertain grades. Ties go alphabetically. Please feel free – invited! – to sound off with your opinions on the listed prospects, and with names you think are missing. I know they’re out there because I’m still finding new ones almost every day.
The Big Question:
Are the Steelers just a quarterback away from being a Super Bowl contender?
Let’s be clear on what that means. I believe the following statements are true:
- Bad QB play makes it impossible to win a Super Bowl.
- Bad luck with injuries makes it impossible to win a Super Bowl.
- Bad luck with bounces, referees, and the other random parts of the game can make it impossible to win a Super Bowl.
- Great QB play with a decent supporting cast is the easiest path to being a Super Bowl contender.
- Good QB play makes it possible to win the Super Bowl if you have great talent around him.
- Okay QB play makes it possible to win the Super Bowl, but only if you have great talent and almost everything else lines up.
And these statements are false:
- Great QB play guarantees a Super Bowl berth.
- Great QB play guarantees playoff wins.
- Great QB play guarantees a playoff appearance.
- Great QB play guarantees a winning season.
So I’m not asking if you think a great QB would guarantee Super Bowl wins in the near future. That’s nonsense. But would it make our Steelers one of those four to six contenders that are there almost every year? Answer it yourself. My opinion is beside the point right now.
If your answer is “yes,” how do want the team to get over that hurdle? Trade the farm to move up into the top 10? For whom? Mortgage the future for the next big QB name on the market? Stand pat to see if Kenny Pickett or Mason Rudolph can grow into being That Guy? Or something else, such as devoting a pick to QB talent every couple of years even if the team has someone you can live with?
With that frame in place…
QBs On The Roster
- Kenny Pickett
- Mason Rudolph
- Mitch Trubisky
Kenny Pickett. I have a strong opinion about Kenny Pickett that probably differs from yours:
- Anyone who thinks he can evaluate KP’s future from where we sit now is fooling himself. We do not know, we cannot know, and we’re just going to have to live with that.
No, I don’t believe in him yet. No, I don’t think he’s a failure yet. The grade is Incomplete, and I don’t plan to award a grade for another two to three years.
I. Don’t. Know.
New QBs often flame out right away for personal reasons, and I do believe that Pickett has passed this initial test with flying colors. After that? It’s three to five years before we can think of closing the book, and sometimes even longer. It drives fans bananas. Isn’t it our sovereign right to demand immediate gratification? But that’s the facts Jack.
You. Don’t. Know. Either.
Patience, Grasshopper, Patience.
FWIW, that need for patience runs in both directions. Mitch Trubisky was a Pro Bowler in his second year, and now he’s on his way out of Pittsburgh and maybe the NFL. Other shooting stars such as RG3 couldn’t hold up to the pounding. Good-looking QBs fall apart every year, so clearly we can’t rely on early positives (or drink the win in front of you).
Going the other way, how many sad sacks can you name who matured into late-blooming franchise QBs and even HOFers? Off the top of my head, I can offer Terry Bradshaw, Steve Young, Len Dawson, Brett Favre, and Kurt Warner as easy examples. The list of late bloomers who “only” grew into franchise leaders is so common that I won’t even try. So clearly we can’t rely on early negatives either (or drink the wine in front of me).
Bottom line: Don’t drink the bloody wine! Both cups are poisoned, and unless you’ve spent the last few years building up an immunity to iocaine powder… [Ahem]. Hope or fear as your nature dictates but please don’t judge Kenny Pickett or any other new QB until the end of his rookie contract, and maybe a few years more. Speaking of which…
Mason Rudolph proved his essential guts and professionalism early on, just like KP has done. No flameouts here! But nor did he prove anything either. Most who read this probably viewed him as more washout than developing talent. Until – lo and behold! – his Year 6 play proved that he’s just another late bloomer. Going into Year 7, I think it’s safe to say that Mason Rudolph can make all the throws, and that he makes good decisions now that he’s grokked the NFL game.
But that still leaves a lot of unknowns. Can he sustain his play over a whole season or will defenses start to figure him out? Can he carry a team to wins or is he “only” a Gardner Minshew type who supports his teammates as they win or lose the game? Can the Minshew types ever win a Super Bowl in this day and age? And if they can, is that a good enough reason to pass over a promising QB prospect in the draft?
Then there’s this one too: will Mason Rudolph even be back in the Burgh for 2024? I hope so, and this article assumes so, but I’ve zero doubt he’ll be off in a New York minute to any team that offers him a better chance of starting. Or more money. FWIW, I would personally ballpark a Mason Rudolph annual value somewhere in the $8-10 million/year range for the cap hit – a number based solely on Mitch Trubisky’s contract. Trubisky would make $5.25 million if he returned in 2024, with $4.6 million in dead cap money from his signing bonus. I remember people calling that a bargain at the time, so please spare us the howls of outrage. That’s just what QB2s cost nowadays. You could argue for more since Rudolph’s current stock is higher than Trubisky’s was in 2022, but you could also argue that the team has more room to negotiate. So I’m pegging his MR’s overall money right in the same range.
Speaking of Mitch Trubisky… no. Year 8 is long enough to form some conclusions, and his flunkety-flunk-flunk experience over the past few years rules out anything more than a veteran’s minimum deal to be some team’s undressed QB3. I have never heard anything but glowing reviews for the man as a human, an off-the-field leader, and a locker room presence, but his on-field play no longer justifies a roster spot.
So… Let’s assume that Trubisky is gone, and that Mason Rudolph returns to compete with Kenny Pickett. What does that mean from a draftnik POV? I’d summarize the status quo like this:
- Pittsburgh has two starters we can expect to be in the 20-50 range of NFL QBs. Both are young enough to still climb the ranks. Pickett has further to go and offers a lower floor, but he also has a higher ceiling.
Next question: What advice should I give my old pals Omar Khan and Mike Tomlin when they call to ask my opinion? I lean toward something like this:
- A promising QB would be worth the pick, even in Round 1. Stick with the BPA approach. Reaching would be the cardinal sin.
Here’s my logic. First, you need three QBs on a roster, not two. Four if you count the extra arm for training camp. So there is an open spot on the roster for the hypothetical draft pick.
Second, with all due respect to John Madden, I think he was wrong to say, “Teams with two QBs don’t even have one.” Competition makes young men better, especially in the sort of healthy locker room for which Mike Tomlin has been universally praised. And any young QB who shies away from that competition has no chance to win it. So I believe that both Pickett and Rudolph will be better because of the other than he would have been if anointed as QB1 before training camp begins. A talented newcomer won’t change that outcome and may even help it.
The only downside in a QB pick would come from losing the chance to pick at some other position, but even that isn’t as big a loss as one might think on first glance. Young, promising, as-yet-unproven quarterbacks make some of the best trade bait there is. Imagine your team having New York Jets luck next year. You start the season a contender and then lose your QB in Week 1. What would you offer for even the loser of a tight contest between Pickett vs. Rudolph; a player who sits in the top 50 QBs in the entire world?
A Round 2 pick? I wouldn’t be surprised. At least a Round 3. Thus spending draft capital on a new QB doesn’t mean it’s been wasted even if he spends all his time on the bench. There are other ways to recoup the investment.
And now comes the elephant in the room… Quarterback is the most important position on the field and Pittsburgh hasn’t solved the puzzle! Will Pickett and Rudolph cap out as someone like a Gardner Minshew or Geno Smith? Good! That’s a QB who won’t kill our chances. But for heaven’s sake Mr. Khan, keep shooting at the position in hopes of finding an actual gem.
Could one or both grow into someone more like a Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr, or Kirk Cousins? Even better! That’s a guy who takes very good teams into championship games on a regular basis – maybe to the Super Bowl with a lucky bounce or two. With greatness at other units, he could even be a Nick Foles who wins it all? Fantastic! But for heaven’s sake Mr. Khan, keep shooting at the position in hopes of finding a genuine Heir To Ben.
We’re trying to build a dynasty here, not just a team that will continue to be a playoffs mainstay.
VERDICT: Don’t reach but be ready to pick a quarterback in any round if that’s how the board happens to fall. Picks 1-7, all should be on the table.
DRAFT CLASS OVERVIEW: From my January vantage point of leaping to grab the first branch, 2024 seems to offer a stronger QB class than most. There are three all-but-locks for the top 5-10. Another trio will go early in Round 2 if they somehow escape the back half of the 1st. I can see another cluster of three who smell like Round 2-3 talent. And several who deserve to be drafted somewhere in Day 3 based on either a strong floor or a very high ceiling. Lots and lots of options. Here’s my current list:
| 1:01 | QB Drake Maye, North Carolina (Junior). 6’4”, 220 lbs. with ___” hands. Turns 22 in August. Draw up a QB in your lab and he would look a lot like this. A top-notch athlete with a rocket arm and great size. Processing speed is the sole question mark. |
| 1:01 | QB Caleb Williams, USC (Junior). 6’1”, 215 lbs. with ___” hands. Turns 23 in November. The 2022 Heisman Award winner and one of the best QB prospects in the last decade. |
| 1:05 | QB Jayden Daniels, LSU (RS Senior). 6’4”, 210 lbs. with ___” hands. Turns 24 in December. The 2023 Heisman winner is your true, double-threat QB. People mention that Baltimore QB when they talk about his running, and it’s hard to imagine a higher compliment. The arm talent is similar too. Jackson may have a touch more velocity, but Daniels has better downfield accuracy, though the latter is handicapped by irregular mechanics such as a low release. For all the brilliant throws, he misses too many gimmes. His future at the next level will depend in large part on whether he has the obsessive focus needed to perfect those mechanics. If so, there’s almost no limit to his potential. If not, he will do the flashing meteor trick: amazing highlights early on that fizzle out after a few years as opponents start to figure him out.
Supposed to be a high-quality leader. Jonathan Heitritter’s gif-supported Depot scouting report, along with many other pundits, follows the dots back to Lamar Jackson as the best comp. The only real complaints have to do with continuing the physical maturation, mechanics, like reliably stepping into throws, and some notes on Daniels’ propensity to get happy feet in the pocket. |
| 1:15 | QB Bo Nix, Oregon (RS Senior). 6’2”, 217 lbs. with ___” hands. Turns 24 in February. Arm strength? Check. Accuracy? Check. Athleticism? Check. Experience? Check but in a system that made the decisions for him. The potential is all there, but can it be realized? And how long will it take? The main issues are undisciplined footwork, pocket presence, processing speed, and whether he can develop the extreme football IQ required to be an NFL quarterback. All of those take time even if he is a coach’s son. A high risk/reward bet who will almost certainly need a year or two on the bench a la Jordan Love but could be that good if he’s left alone to develop in the same way that Love did. |
| 1:15 | QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington (RS Senior). 6’3”, 215 lbs. with ___” hands. Turns 24 in May. Started in Indiana as a 170-pound QB and evolved into the golden arm that put Washington on his back and carried the team to a national championship game. Smart, accurate, can make all the throws and more and also athletic enough to keep a defense honest. Injuries are the main concern. [Prepare yourself] He tore an ACL as a true freshman. Next year a shoulder. Then the other ACL. Then another shoulder. Then he transferred to Washington as a RS Junior and looked brilliant. Then came 2023 and his final, all-but-championship closing year. Top-10 talent for sure, and maybe Top one to three if not for the injuries. But those cannot be wished away. It’s almost a black and white case of, “On our board in the Top 10” or “Off the board for injury concerns.” |
| 2:01 | QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (Junior). 6’3”, 202 lbs. with ___” hands. Turns __ in ___. Frown all you want. He “game managed” his team to the ultimate CFB prize at the age of 20, and he was as big a part of getting there as anyone else. He just wasn’t the reason they got there, which is what you need to create a hype train. An NFL-solid arm, if not special. Good football IQ. Possesses the playmaking gene in clutch moments. Definitely a winner. Could he become special if full-time dedication and coaching help him iron out the mechanical errors that hold him back? The debate will sound familiar to anyone who remembers the Kenny Pickett arguments in 2022 and the Mac Jones arguments in 2021. |
| 2:24 | QB Michael Pratt, Tulane (RS Junior). 6’3”, 220 lbs. with ___” hands. Turns 23 in September. The arm is big enough until he’s pushed into extremely long throws or into an extremely tough wind. Then the difference really shows. OTOH, haven’t we seen professional training add that extra edge for pure arm strength? After that the assets are seriously good: excellent accuracy, good decision-making, high football IQ, etc. Good enough athlete, but again there’s nothing to make him stand out from the NFL norm. Pratt projects as a quality backup right out of the gate whose high floor promises him every chance at building a long career. He just hasn’t shown the Wow! factor that moves prospects up the board. |
| 2:24 | QB Jordan Travis , Florida St. (RS Senior). 6’1”, 212 lbs. with ___” hands. Turns 24 in May. Medical red flag for a busted ankle in November. Remember FSU, the Cinderella story of 2023 that didn’t make it into the playoffs despite going unbeaten? It happened because the Seminoles rode a star quarterback until injury ended his season – at which point no one believed the team could still compete with elite, upper-tier opponents. That quarterback was Jordan Travis. A highly athletic player with good, consistent mechanics, a lightning release, a proven clutch gene, and very good pocket presence. The only real downsides to Travis are suboptimal size and average arm strength. Exceptional leadership and mobility firmly in the category of “special.” The triumphs of 2023 basically came from his ability to extend plays, improvise, and then use his feet or his arm to make a little magic. The Combine won’t do him any favors in the size and weight department, but you have to admire the reality that he really was the secret sauce to make his team a winner. One can make parallels to Michael Penix Jr., except Penix ended the year healthy and was productive for two spectacular seasons instead of just one. |
| 3:01 | QB Spencer Rattler, S. Car. (RS Senior). 6’1”, 217 lbs. with ___” hands. Turns 24 in September. The young man whose name alone can stir up controversy. He starred in the Netflix series QB1 as a high school senior, and it haunts him even now. That show led to wild expectations that he hasn’t fulfilled despite tantalizing glimpses. Year 1 vanished due to an unspecified conduct code violation. Year 2 lived up to every bit of the hype. Heisman speculation abounded for a rising redshirt sophomore! Then, disaster. Ball security issues; inability to make even a high-powered offense move; questions about football IQ; leadership issues… By the end of the year he’d lost the starting job to a much less ballyhooed prospect: some kid named Caleb Williams. The one who won the Heisman in 2022 and looks to be the No. 1 or No. 2 pick in this year’s NFL draft. Maybe it wasn’t such a black mark after all?
Rattler left Oklahoma after that to play his final two years at South Carolina. And the results were… a dazzling, dizzying seesaw of eye-popping brilliance offset by headshaking blunders and repeated issues with timing routes and accuracy under pressure. Pressure that he faced very often and had the exact same effect on super-armed Michael Penix Jr. in the national championship game. So on the downside we have moderate size, good but not special athleticism, and many question marks for all the professional interviews. But oh, the arm talent! Rattler can fire off throws you just don’t see outside of names like Patrick Mahomes. Here is a January scouting report by Daniel Kelly, which ends in a Round 1 grade. I have my doubts about Round 1 for sure, but would be shocked if he falls out of Day 2. |
| RD 4-7 | QB Gavin Hardison, UTEP (RS Senior). 6’1”, 215 lbs. with ___” hands. Turns 24 in May. Big-armed tough guy who can throw touch passes too. Statisticians will point to a low completion rate (53 percent), but was it caused by wandering mechanics or by playing behind a sieve that had him under constant pressure? Another fine boom-or-bust prospect who deserves a Day 3 pick. |
| RD 4-7 | QB Sam Hartman, Notre Dame (RS Senior). 6’1”, 215 lbs. with ___” hands. Turns 25 in July. Back in the 80s-90s another Notre Dame QB (from Western Pennsylvanian!) earned a whole lot of money for very smart, extremely accurate pocket passers. Joe Montana was a slightly better athlete than Sam Hartman, but he is the stereotype Hartman’s supporters are going to cite. “I don’t throw darts at balloons, I throw balloons at darts.” They will also point out that his accuracy and touch exist despite some mechanics that could improve, which offers some reason to believe he still has a leap to make. Bottom line: a stereotypical “West Coast quarterback” but definitely a draftable one with a high floor and maybe more of a ceiling than people imagine. |
| RD 4-7 | QB Joe Milton III, Tennessee (RS Senior). 6’5”, 235 lbs. with ___” hands. Turns 24 in March. Elite physical tools, including size, strength, and the ability to toss flat-footed 60-yard bombs (aka Josh Allen throws). He’s also got a proven clutch gene, and character sterling enough to be a semifinalist for the Jason Witten Collegiate Man of the Year. Which really does matter. The drawbacks? If drafted, the Steelers should rent a room in Jordan Palmer’s garage and tell Milton to live there until 2026, when (my No. 1) quarterback whisperer will have had enough time to iron out his ragged mechanics and lack of touch. As boom-or-bust as it gets. |
| RD 4-7 | QB Taulia Tagovailoa , Maryland (RS Senior). 5’11”, 208 lbs. with ___” hands. Turns 24 in February. Tua’s baby brother wanted to play one more year in college, but the NCAA denied his petition and thus he’s entering the NFL draft. The scouting profile reads a lot like a right-handed Tua’s: smart, great arm, accurate, athletic, and just plain small for the position. TBH, he’s stockier than his brother but two inches shorter, and you could still fit him inside a Roethlisberger exoskeleton with room to spare in every dimension. Except that Tua played for a championship-caliber team against the best opposition college football can muster. Taulia labored away at Maryland where he never managed to get that one gigantic win to raise his stock a little higher. |
| RD 4-7 | QB Cameron Ward, Wash. St. by way of tiny Incarnate Word (Junior). 6’2”, 225 lbs. with ___” hands. Turns 22 in May. Big arm, quick release, good athlete, and all those other tools, but he should have gone back to school. His one year at Washington State wasn’t enough to show he gets it from the neck up. Pure boom or bust. |
| RD 6-7 |
QB Jason Bean, Kansas (___). 6’1”, 215 lbs. with ___” hands. Turns 25 in June. Has a big, accurate arm even on the move. Agile enough to extend plays and a good enough overall athlete to punish a defense that fails to remember he can also run. Erratic mechanics have led to some erratic accuracy, though it may be of the fixable sort. He also needs at least a few years to learn the NFL game. This November scouting profile end with an intriguing comparison to Ravens backup Tyler Huntley |
Conclusion
That covers it folks. I know I’ve said some things that will make just about all of you upset, but hopefully there’s enough meat on the bones to understand the reasoning. Please feel free to let me have it in the comments.
