I prefer to start these with a few assumptions about how free agency will turn out. For this one I assume as little change as I can. Yes, I can think of several improvable spots, and a few starters who I would prefer to see as backups. But I don’t see anyone who doesn’t deserve to be in the NFL, so I’m going to assume the lineup will look something like this with a few journeymen free agents to replace other journeymen who won’t be back..
- Offensive Line: Same players across the board except for Chuks Okorafor, who will be replaced by an only competent swing tackle, and/or one of the team’s developmental youngsters who managed to impress the coaches in practice.
- Quarterback: Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, and an empty spot for where Mitch Trubisky was.
- TEs and RBs: No changes.
- Wide Receivers: Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Calvin Austin III, and a pair of journeymen. These may still be Allen Robinson II and Myles Boykin but probably not.
- Defensive Line: No changes. Cameron Heyward, Keeanu Benton, Larry Ogunjobi, Montravius Adams, and DeMarvin Leal with journeymen comparable to Isaiahh Loudermilk and Armon Watts.
- Edge: No changes.
- ILB: No changes. Kwon Alexander (or an equivalent), Cole Holcomb (or an equivalent), Elandon Roberts, and Mark Robinson. This could be a front office area of free agency focus again.
- SAF: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Eric Rowe, Keanu Neal, and Miles Killebrew. Damontae Kazee gone, replaced by Eric Rowe.
- CB: Joey Porter Jr., Patrick Peterson, Cory Trice Jr., Chandon Sullivan, and a seasoned journeyman equivalent to the Levi Wallace of two years ago. Fifty-fifty on James Pierre as a special teams ace. This one is more up in the air because I foresee more free agency upheaval here than at any other position.
Pick 1:20 Center/Guard Graham Barton, Duke.
Please put on your pouting baby face and repeat after me: I want a center! I want a center! Mansfield to Webster to Dawson to Hartings to Pouncey, so I want a center!
Round 2 will have three good, solid center prospects. You get great bang for the simulator buck by addressing another position in Round 1, and then circling back to draft the likes of Jackson Powers-Johnson, Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, or Zach Frazier. But I want a great center, not just a top 10-15 center! Which leaves only one name to consider. That’s Graham Barton – assuming he’s a center, of course.
We won’t really know until we see him play the position at the Senior Bowl. Barton dabbled there as a freshman, but his college coaches rapidly moved him to tackle because he was just that good. They wanted their best lineman on the edge rather than at the pivot. He was a darned good tackle too and will only be moving inside due to his lack of inches. A player in the Alijah Vera-Tucker and Peter Skoronski mold for those who remember the last few drafts.
Thank heavens Steelers assistant OL coach Isaac Williams will be in Mobile, Ala., to see firsthand how the young man handles his original position against top notch competition. At this point I’m taking his four thumbs-up endorsement (fingers and toes) as a given. Why? Because (repeat after me) I want a center!
| C/G/T Graham Barton, Duke (Senior). 6’4”, 315 lbs. with ___” arms and ___” hands. Turns 22 in June. Keep an eye on this one Steeler Nation! He could be Pittsburgh’s No. 1 realistic target if he really can play center, and at worst would provide extraordinary depth across the line. That versatility provides a rock-solid floor that is very rare even for Round 1 picks. Barton fits an archetype that would be perfect for this team: the fringe-1st college tackle who (a) succeeded on athleticism, attitude, and technique (b) projects better and with high confidence as an IOL for the league and (c) has experience playing center in his freshman year. Think of Vera-Tucker in 2021 and Skoronski in 2023. His assets as a blocker start with rare explosion off the line, physical strength, excellent technique, work ethic, and dominance in the run game. The warnings all have to do with his length if viewed as a pure OT, which shows up against NFL-level talents when he’s on the edge but doesn’t matter for an IOL. Limited competition as a Duke player relative to some other schools. The early-season scouting reports by the Draft Network and PFN should provide a baseline view. I rely more on the scouting report by Brandon Thorn, who is one of the best and always deserve a full read. I would quote it in full if I could. Teaser: One encouraging part reads, “Renowned leadership qualities, work ethic and drive to improve.” [Fans at face with lacy hankie and hand on breast]. This particularly good December scouting profile from PFN ends with a fringe-1st grade and this intriguing summary: “…Barton’s ability to play any spot in a pinch would be immensely valuable, [b]ut as an interior lineman, his elite athleticism and overwhelming power and physicality grant him an extremely high ceiling.” This solid January scouting profile does a good job of explaining his limitations as an OT, and then extols every asset you look for in an IOL: aggression, explosion off the snap, football IQ, coordination with linemates, run blocking, etc. Summarizing this New Year’s scouting profile: “In regard to stance, power, and nastiness, Barton is undoubtedly a first-round talent. Smart… explodes upward through his blocks… textbook technique… an absolute mauler in the run game… [but] his lack of footspeed and overall athleticism are lacking when compared to most good NFL tackles.” Another good New Year’s scouting profile adds, “Excellent mover, [] great grip strength, [] tremendous puller and mover in space, [and] has a mean streak to him.” |
Pick 2:19 (#51 overall) DT Maason Smith, LSU (RS Soph).
I am further from panic mode about the Steelers’ defensive line than other fans seem to be. I’m actually happy with what we’ve got for 2024. Heyward will be back uninjured, Benton will be a year better, and Ogunjobi is more than just serviceable. His only problem is his price tag. I’m even happy with the depth behind those starting three, so long as they are understood to be depth rather than starters-in waiting. The problems appear in my view of the 2025 and 2026 defensive lines. DTs often take a few years to get it, so I want the team to keep planning ahead. Especially with Heyward turning 35 in May.
This would make the fourth D-line pick in a row if you want to keep count. The latest one, Benton, looks like the real deal. One down. But you need two and preferably three. It’s a spot the front office has had to patchwork together since Stephon Tuitt took early retirement. The Steelers have been trying, but only Benton looks like the first real hit in a while.
DeMarvin Leal, a 2022 Round 3 pick, held the spot of “healthy scratch” for most of last season. I won’t write him off – DTs really can take a few years – but I haven’t seen any reason to pass on the position because he is around. The Steelers’ 2021 pick, Isaiahh Loudermilk, came in Round 5. I’d say he’s become a solid enough journeyman to justify that pick, Round 5 was just about right when it comes to value. But we need a second star, not a depth player.
Alas, but this isn’t a very good class to find that guy. The Steelers look for a very particular body type when it comes to defensive tackles. Long (6-4 to 6-6), hefty but not huge (290-310 pounds), very long (arms at least 33 inches), and athletic. This draft offers a lot of good defensive tackles, but I count only three to five who meet those criteria, and all of those have Round 2-3 grades on my initial Board:
- Maason Smith from LSU
- Ruke Orhorhoro from Clemson
- Darius Robinson from Missouri and
- Possibly FSU’s Braden Fiske and/or Alabama’s Justin Eboigbe, though both of those might be a little too squat.
Every other prospect, good as they may be for other systems, does not fit in Pittsburgh. There are a lot of short, explosive 3-tech types who want to be Aaron Donald, and several hybrid DE/DT types in the Leal mold. Some good ones! But I can’t see the team changing its course radically enough to go in either direction.
Smith appears to be the best of the four, at least according to what I have gleaned so far.
| DT Maason Smith, LSU (RS Soph). 6’6”, 292 lbs. with ___” arms and ___” hands. Turns 22 in October. A pass-rushing DT with length, strength, anchor, motor, and some surprisingly good hands, offset by problems with his pad level that will go away after 2-3 years of dedicated work. Sounds good for one of the rare players who fits the Steelers’ mold. Smith tore an ACL in 2022 but played through the recovery in 2023. I choose to take that as a good sign that he’s probably a little better than his most recent year of film would show – and that film was still pretty darned good. Add 10-15 pounds of good, grown-man muscle – which he should be able to do – and the young man would look a lot like Stephon Tuitt. Color me intrigued. |
There are some other positions I will seriously consider for the Round 2 pick in future mocks, with center, cornerback and offensive tackle topping the list, but I will go with defensive line in Version 1.0 because the whole pool could be empty at DL if I wait until Round 3. I am pretty sure it will be empty by Round 4.
Pick 3:20 (#84 overall) CB Mike Sainristil, Michigan.
Y’know, sometimes your fellow writers manage to really steal your thunder. I started thinking about this article a week or two ago by putting Graham Barton as my No. 1 pick and Mike Sainristil as my favorite for Round 3. I figured that Cory Trice Jr. has an inside track on the second outside corner position with his fellow rookie Darius Rush as an equally athletic tall guy with longer odds. Add Patrick Peterson as a super-savvy zone and slot player who can double as safety depth, and things didn’t look so bleak anymore. What’s still needed? Fire in the belly! Also known as Mike Sainristil.
Then someone had to go and do a scouting report ending with a comp to none other than Mike Hilton. What’s the big idea? You get dibs just because you spend months and months of labor to know the draft class inside out before anyone else gets going? Hard work is supposed to be some kind of justification for getting in first? Oh well. But the logic still stands. If the defense was a boxer preparing for bouts, Sainristil would be a few thousand daily sit-ups to strengthen the core. An ideal Round 3 pick in my book.
| DB Mike Sainristil, Michigan (RS Senior). 5’10”, 182 lbs. with ___” arms and ___” hands. Turns 24 in October. Born in Haiti. An experienced, multipurpose DB on a championship defense who lacks the desired size but has an endless motor, excellent quickness, good speed, and understanding of team defense. Played WR until 2022, and it shows in his good hands and ability to make the most out of interceptions. Scrappy as heck, though his moderate size gets in the way. Projects as an excellent nickel DB and special teams player. Jonathan Heitritter’s gif supported Depot scouting report extols his position flexibility with experience as an outside corner, inside corner, and versatile, do-it-all safety. You’ve got to love his conclusion: “When coming up [with] a pro comparison for Sainristil, former Steelers CB Mike Hilton quickly stood out as a player with similar size, athleticism, and skill set.” This January Bleacher Report scouting profile adds that Sainristil deserves a bump for being an excellent gunner on coverage teams. That could be important if the team decides to part ways with James Pierre. He’s also known as an important on-field emotional leader for his team as a whole. |
Pick 4:19 (#119 overall) WR Ainias Smith, Texas A&M (RS Senior)
We can go through the whole lineup, the lack of production out of the slot since JuJu Smith-Schuster left, and other rationales if you like. But the truth is that my research hasn’t gone that deep yet, and I got sold on this prospect the moment I started to summarize the gist of what people have written:
| WR Ainias Smith, Texas A&M (RS Senior). 5’10”, 200 lbs. with ___” arms and ___” hands. Turns 23 in May. Draft Crush Alert. It only took about two or three scouting profiles before a thought flashed irresistibly through my head: “This kid plays like he studied Hines Ward for inspiration!” Everything people have said — from Smith’s exceptional blocking to his fiery demeanor, sneaky but not showy athleticism, and penchant for doing every little extra he can find — is just what I remember from No. 86. In terms of measurables, Smith profiles as a good college route runner with the native ability to be better, but he lacks pure speed, and isn’t an acrobat in the air who can increase his catch radius beyond what nature intended. He’s just a tough, hard-nosed, team-oriented football player who happens to play receiver. Heck yeah, I’ll drink that stuff by the bucket. |
The process will give us all sorts of measurements on the entire class, from mph-achieved to arms lengths to the eighth-inch. And I will follow all that with the same eagerness as anyone. But honestly? This WR corps needs some good, old-fashioned toughness more than anything else.
How could someone like that fall to Round 4? Simple. This may be the deepest wide receiver class in decades. There are other names we’ll see in the future. In fact, a list of examples will make the point.
My favorite Round 2-4 targets includes less than half the total of players in this band. The names would be Ja’Lynn Polk, Malachi Corley, Xavier Legette, Ladd McConkey, [gasp] Roman Wilson, Ricky Pearsall, Devontez Walker, [gasp, gasp] Brenden Rice, and Jamari Thrash. And Ainias Smith of course. All are very good players who I can easily see in the Black and Gold. There may even be more, and most in the group are likely to test better than Ainias Smith. But my flag is hereby in the sand. Give me the tough guy.
Pick 4:20 (#120 overall) QB Joe Milton III, Tennessee.
A couple of things about this pick. First, I am quite aware that I have found neither an offensive tackle nor a safety. Maybe next time. Second, I think this is more than a little optimistic. Milton isn’t likely to be on the board in Round 4, but I would not be surprised if an alternative like Michael Pratt, Spencer Rattler, or Jordan Davis is. So this is really a pick to say, “Whoever is left of those four.” Third, I’m not going to repeat my reasoning for a QB pick because it was thoroughly discussed in the linked article.
So why pick Milton instead of one of the others? Because I rewrote the entry for Mr. Milton after reading people’s comments on the QB analysis and I just had to share. Anyone who follows the NFL draft really ought to get used to hearing this name.
| QB Joe Milton III , Tennessee by way of Michigan (RS Senior). 6’5”, 235 lbs. with ___” hands. Turns 24 in March. Elite physical tools, including size, strength, speed, and the ability to toss flat-footed 60-yard bombs (aka Josh Allen throws). Indeed, “elite” may not be a strong enough adjective. Maybe “jaw-dropping?” He’s known for a lightning-quick release, and there’s a claim out there that he can throw a ball 97 yards in the air and a fastball 109 mph! He’s also got a proven clutch gene and character sterling enough to be a semifinalist for the Jason Witten Collegiate Man of the Year, which really does matter. The drawbacks? All the reasons why he lost his Michigan spot to Cade McNamara, who then lost it to J.J. McCarthy, who is three years younger than Milton. Which are the same reasons he lost the Tennessee job to Hendon Hooker in his junior year. He lacks the football IQ, vision, and reliable mechanics needed to make use of all that athletic potential. Milton (like many others) needs to spend two years living in Jordan Palmer’s garage in order to remake his ragged mechanics and cure his lack of touch. It wouldn’t hurt to give him weekly film sessions with Peyton Manning while you’re at it. As boom or bust as it gets. But oh wow, what a boom that would be. As the NFL Draft Buzz profile puts it, “His arm strength and velocity are such that they’ve been the subject of awe… [but] the transition to the NFL requires a holistic grasp of the quarterback position.” Daniel Kelly calls his scouting profile, “The hardest evaluation I have ever done…. [Milton has] the most aggressive and strongest personality on the football field… [and] the size and arm strength worth of being the top pick in the draft. However, he has the accuracy of a 5th-round pick.” Nor did the Vols offense help. Want a great line? Tennessee’s effort to put Milton in a dink-and-dunk system “was like watching Babe Ruth bunt.” |
High risk and high reward? Absolutely. But if he does wash out as a quarterback, maybe someone could convince him to be a big slot WR. He could easily be the best in the league.
Rounds 6 and 7.
Sorry to disappoint folks, by my reading just hasn’t gotten this far yet. How about we say, “whoever Jon Heitritter says is the BPA at Tackle,” and then Tory Taylor from Iowa, who seems to be the draft’s highest-rated punter.
CONCLUSION
It’s way too early for me to have any strong opinions about the draft, but this was a useful exercise. I got us someone who could be a star at center rather than “just” a long-term starter. That should make everyone happy because it will keep me from going on and on and on and on. And on.
Then we land the best DL in the draft from a purely Pittsburgh perspective; a good, slot-capable, spark plug corner; and then personal draft crush to play WR who should actually fall this far due to the depth of the class. Then we close out with the freakiest of all freaking athletic freaky freaks who can sit for a few years in the deep shadows trying to learn the QB position a la Jordan Love. If he finally gets it, we will have a QB with historic levels of potential. And if he doesn’t, he can still earn playing time whenever he wants as an extraordinary big slot receiver.
I’ll probably shake my head at these early grades a few months from now, but at this point I am walking away happy.
- 1:20 C/G/T Graham Barton
- 2:19 DT Maason Smith
- 3:20 CB Mike Sainristil
- 4:19 WR Ainias Smith
- 4:20 QB Joe Milton III
- 6:19 Some OT recommended by Heitritter
- 7:20 P Tory Taylor
