The Pittsburgh Steelers entered the week, fresh off qualifying for the playoffs, as 10-point underdogs to the Buffalo Bills. Since the matchup was locked in following Week 18’s results, prominent figures in the media have all but written off the Steelers’ chances. Now just two days before the game, there is a state of emergency declared in the state of New York due to a powerful winter storm pummeling the area over the weekend. Adam Schefter reported Friday on X that the NFL has informed teams that the game is still expected to commence at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday afternoon as scheduled.
NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell appeared on One Bills Live on Friday to preview the Steelers-Bills playoffs game on the Bills’ website. He was asked about how the weather could impact the game.
“If it’s truly snowing and it’s windy, not that Josh can’t throw in the wind, but if it’s really windy that does impact pretty much everything,” Cosell said. “Who knows what kind of game it’ll be, but I think it does level the playing field, yes.”
While the Vegas line for the game hasn’t shifted much—just a half point in the Steelers’ favor—the over/under point total has dropped drastically. It opened at 41.5 and is now as low as 33 at some sportsbooks.
The Bills’ offense features a top-ten passing attack led by QB Josh Allen, gaining 244.4 yards per game this season through the air. The Steelers’ defense is one of the top units in limiting scoring, but near the bottom of the league in allowing yards. If the big-play threat can be limited by the weather, then that could play into the Steelers’ strengths.
If it becomes a battle in the trenches with each team relying on their running game to generate offense, it won’t necessarily give the advantage to Pittsburgh. The Bills, like the Steelers, have enjoyed a strong rushing season, and one of the reasons for that is the mobility of Allen at the quarterback position. He has 111 carries for 524 yards and 15 touchdowns. That production has contributed to the Bills having the seventh-most rushing yards this season with 2212.
On the other end of things, the Steelers have rushed for 156.7 yards per game over their three-game win streak to end the season. That is good enough to be the third-most in the league over that span. And perhaps more importantly, RB Najee Harris already proved he could do it in inclement weather with a 112-yard, one touchdown performance on the ground in Week 18. The Bills defense allowed the fifth-most yards per carry this season with 4.6 ypc to opposing running backs.
With the weather reports shifting hour-to-hour it remains to be seen just how bad it could get and what the effects will be on the game, but the fact that the conversation has shifted to the ground game is a good thing for the Steelers.
