Get ready Steelers fans, for an offseason full of fun discussions on whether or not Kenny Pickett is “The Guy”. You’ll hear it so much over the next few months it will feel like you got lost and ended up on the set of the 2001 movie Spy Kids.
Pickett is in the classic situation where he’s done just enough, and the Steelers invested just enough draft capital in him, that it’s hard to give up on him through just 24 starts. Especially when he has a record of 14-10 over those starts. The question is whether that respectable record is in part thanks to or in spite of him.
For Fox Sports analyst Jason Smith, Pickett’s play has not been nearly enough to think he can support a contender. He shared his thoughts on the Steelers quarterback situation, after Mike Tomlin’s press conference where he said Pickett was QB1 going into the offseason on The Jason Smith Show.
“Scratch the Steelers from being a Super Bowl contender.” Smith said. “How do you sell to your team and your fan base, that this year with Kenny Pickett is really going to work? Kenny Pickett’s not been any good. If he really was the answer, he would have won his job back at the end of the year. They wouldn’t have been riding the hot hand in Mason Rudolph.”
While Tomlin said Pickett would enter the offseason as QB1, he certainly left the door open for a quarterback competition by saying Pickett would be challenged with competition. However, it does seem like the job is Pickett’s to lose right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if he lost it, but it’s hard to argue that the most likely outcome isn’t Pickett being the opening-day starter in 2024.
Here’s a “fun” Kenny Pickett stat for you: over his last seven starts in 2023, he threw just one touchdown pass. One! Granted he did leave the Arizona game early with an injury, but even if we remove that game, his full-season pace would be under three touchdowns. He didn’t throw any interceptions in those games either, but in this era of the NFL, a mistake-free quarterback and a good defense isn’t enough to win anymore.
Jason Smith’s point opens up an interesting thought experiment, when was the last time a QB who played Pickett’s style won a Super Bowl? You could argue Nick Foles in 2018, although it’s hard to imagine Pickett throwing up 373 yards and three TDs in any game, let alone a Super Bowl. You’d have to go back to 2002, when Brad Johnson was the starting QB for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers when they won the Super Bowl, to find even somewhat of a comparison.
So the Steelers would be counting on bucking a 20+ year trend to win the Super Bowl next year with Pickett at the helm. Seems like a safe bet for Smith, at least given what we’ve seen out of Pickett so far.
