After my CATS metric deep dive, I wanted to zoom in on the explosive-play aspect of the 2023 regular season. Today we will be looking at explosive plays (20 yards or more), then what I call Adjusted Explosive Plays (AEP).
AEP is the total count of explosive plays, double explosives (40 yards or more) adding a multiplier of two, and triple explosive plays (60 yards or more) multiplying by three. For every play that ended in the end zone, I multiplied by six.
So, the longer the explosive the better, and the greatest emphasis on the ultimate goal of scoring points.
Here are raw explosive play totals on offense and defense for an initial view:
Not ideal for the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2023 to put it lightly, one of just four teams well below-average on both sides of the ball and the only team lucky enough to make the postseason among that group.
In all, 55 explosive plays on offense ranked 26th this year. It was an improvement from 52 in 2022 but still landed at the same rank. Defensively, 72 allowed, ranking 29th this season, compared to 67 in 2022 (tied for 23rd). So, a regression in each in 2023 from a totality perspective. Excuses can be made, but that can be said for most teams every year.
Now let’s look at AEP, and see how that added value looks around the league:
Despite the low explosive-play results, the AEP numbers emphasize the Steelers’ positive results on huge plays and touchdowns on both offense and defense, landing them much closer to NFL average than their raw totals.
This was especially true for the Steelers offense, posting a 147 OAEP that ranked 12th leaguewide in 2023, compared to 26th in total explosive plays. En route to this dire part of the explosive passing game were 10 double explosives (t-13th), six triple explosives (second), and nine explosive touchdowns (t-12th).
The Steelers managed only three double explosives in the first 10 weeks compared to seven in the final eight games — five from QB Mason Rudolph in just three games. Similar triple-explosive uptick with two in the first three weeks of the season then a lull until a Week 11 74-yard house call by RB Jaylen Warren, the only explosive rushing touchdown of 2023. Then, three triple explosives from Rudolph, two in Week 16 and one in the season finale.
The early-season triple explosives were thankfully touchdowns, a pair of 70-plus yarders from QB Kenny Pickett to WRs George Pickens and Calvin Austin III. The next explosive touchdown came in Week Eight, QB Mitch Trubisky finding Pickens for a 22-yard score. Then Warren’s rumble, followed by a Trubisky to WR Diontae Johnson 25-yard connection. The three triple-explosive plays from Rudolph were all touchdowns as well (two to Pickens, one to Johnson).
Pickens led Steelers playmakers in explosive touchdowns (five), and his improvement in YAC this season was a big reason for their improved OAEP, with five of the nine scores featuring explosive YAC. Looking back at 2022 regular-season AEP, the Steelers ranked dead last in AEP on offense (70), more than doubling that number to 147 in 2023. Hopefully, they can stay on this encouraging course in 2024.
Pittsburgh’s defense had a 153 DAEP number in 2023, ranking 22nd in the NFL, compared to 29th in its total explosive plays allowed in 2022. While having a better DAEP result, we don’t see the massive jump that the offense provided, landing remarkably similar to the Steelers’ 147 number from 2023 (21st).
More specifically, the Steelers’ defense allowed 72 explosive plays (29th), nine double explosives (t-eighth), three triple explosives (t-20th), and nine explosive touchdowns (t-16th). So, we can see the quantity of triple explosives and explosive touchdowns allowed were the biggest issues for Pittsburgh’s defense in 2023.
There was a particularly rough stretch from Weeks 7-10, including allowing a season-high eight explosive plays to Green Bay in Week 10 and allowing seven explosive plays on two other occasions. Thankfully, Pittsburgh came away from that four-game stretch with a 3-1 record.
The three triple-explosive plays allowed largely came early in 2023, the Steelers yielding two in their first two games. Both were painfully running plays, one a 65-yard touchdown by 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey, the other Cleveland’s Jerome Ford going 69 yards with Steelers S Minkah Fitzpatrick making the tackle at the 1-yard line. The last one came in Week 16 against the Bengals, the Steelers allowing WR Tee Higgins to break free for a whopping 80-yard touchdown.
On the encouraging side, that was the only triple-explosive pass play allowed by the Steelers in all of 2023, and they got their act together against big runs.
Pittsburgh’s defense allowed an explosive touchdown in nine games this year. McCaffrey’s run (Week One); 32 yards in Week Three (Raiders WR Davante Adams); 52 yards in Week Four (Texans WR Nico Collins); 31 yards in Week Seven (Rams WR Tutu Atwell); 56-yard reception by Jacksonville RB Travis Etienne (Week Eight); 35 yards in Week 10 (Packers WR Jayden Reed); 24 yards in Week 14 (Patriots TE Hunter Henry), the Higgins triple explosive; and 27 yards in the regular-season finale (Ravens TE Isaiah Likely).
The list emphasizes some encouraging trends and areas for needed improvement. The run defense improved throughout the year, DL Cameron Heyward returning from a groin injury certainly aiding that feat. We see opposing WRs were getting explosive touchdowns the first half of the year but then largely limited after CB Joey Porter Jr. earned a starting job in Week Eight. Then tight ends got loose on Pittsburgh’s ravaged linebacker and safety rooms after playing the position well previously.
As stated earlier, every team deals with injuries. Pittsburgh’s luck on defense was worse than most though, leaving optimism moving forward. Fingers crossed that unit can join Pittsburgh’s offense, which greatly improved its AEP this season. That would bode extremely well for a deeper playoff run in 2024.
