Three out of the four teams in the AFC North already have their plans in place for next weekend. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers are left wondering. The Cincinnati Bengals are already in offseason mode. The Baltimore Ravens will have a week off before their next game. And the Cleveland Browns are already locked into the top Wildcard spot.
Nothing that happens in the final week of the regular season can change that. And given that they don’t have a bye, they have even more incentive to rest certain players as they focus on the postseason, which has been largely uncharted territory for the organization.
Accordingly, they have already announced that DE Myles Garrett will not play in the season finale against the Bengals. A favorite to win the Defensive Player of the Year Award for the 2023 season, we now know that he will not have an opportunity in the final week to add to his resume.
That means he will finish the season with 42 tackles, 17 tackles for loss, 14 sacks, 30 quarterback hits, four forced fumbles, one recovery for a touchdown, and three passes defensed. Excellent numbers, to be sure, but almost universally trailing the Steelers’ T.J. Watt.
Entering the season finale, Watt has 60 tackles, including 16 for loss, with a league-leading 17 sacks, 34 hits, four forced fumbles, three recoveries (one for a touchdown), one interception, and eight passes defensed. The only statistic in which Garrett has the edge is one additional tackle for loss.
So what does this mean in terms of the race for the Defensive Player of the Year Award? In some circles, many have narrowed it down to Garrett vs. Watt, so Garrett remaining idle won’t do him any favors unless Watt plays poorly in the finale. Pro Football Focus is already in Garrett’s corner, for whatever value you may put into that.
Betting lines are never something that I pay attention to on my own, but evidently, most favor Garrett winning this season. Micah Parsons of the Dallas Cowboys also seems to be widely favored over Watt as well. I frankly have no idea what the history is of the betting lines accurately predicting the outcome of this award, so you can decide for yourself how mad you want to get about it.
What we can reasonably say is that it seems to have become a three-horse race between Garrett, Watt, and Parsons. But will Garrett’s sitting out the finale hinder his chances of winning? Obviously, how much will be determined by how well the others play.
The Cowboys can win the division and secure the second seed in the NFC if they beat the Washington Commanders this weekend, so they still have plenty to play for. As for Parsons, he has 49 tackles on the season, including 17 for loss. He has 13 sacks, 32 hits, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery, and two passes defensed.
Statistically, Watt is clearly the frontrunner, but statistics are only part of the story. The question is, does he still need to separate himself with one more great game to lock up his second Defensive Player of the Year Award?
