The Buffalo Bills have won five games in a row since finding themselves as a crossroads a month and a half ago. Sitting at 6-6, they were in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs altogether. Now they are the AFC’s second seed and set to host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.
And the Steelers had better be prepared for one of the most volatile teams in the league, particularly their offense, the most boom-or-bust unit in the AFC and second only to the Philadelphia Eagles around the entire league.
The Bills, for instance, rank sixth in the league in scoring drives. They have produced points on 41.4 percent of their possessions during the 2023 season. But they have also turned the ball over on 14.9 percent of their possessions, the fifth-highest mark in the NFL. The Eagles rank fifth and third in those categories, respectively, so they are even more volatile.
Buffalo finished sixth in scoring offense this season with 26.5 points per game, but they also turned the ball over the 10th-most times with 28 giveaways. Were it not for an equally opportunistic defense that took the ball away 30 times (third-most in the league, and the highest percentage per drive), we may be talking a different story.
And there is the key. The Steelers have to do against the Bills what they’ve been doing for most of the season: protect the football. QB Mason Rudolph has proven able to do that, tossing just one turnover-worthy pass since he has been in the lineup.
The Bills defense ranks 25th in the NFL in percentage of drives allowing a score, made all the more significant given that they rank first in drives ending in a takeaway. If the Steelers can play mistake-free possession football and take advantage of Buffalo’s offensive volatility, they have a roadmap for success.
QB Josh Allen has thrown 18 interceptions this year, or an interception on 3.1 percent of his pass attempts, the highest mark since his rookie season. He has also fumbled seven times, though that is actually the lowest mark of his career and less of a surprise for a quarterback who runs over 100 times a year.
Bills games have not had many possessions, overall. The average length of their offensive possessions are the second-longest in the league, their defensive possessions 10th-longest, which translates to fewer possessions than normal.
That suits the Steelers just fine, really, especially if they can find success against Buffalo’s 15th-ranked run defense, which is averaging a bottom-five 4.6 yards per carry. Keep that defense on the field with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren and wait for Allen to make his mistakes. Then you can have all the Buffalo sauce you want.
