The Pittsburgh Steelers were -6.5, or essentially touchdown favorites against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, a game they lost 24-10. It was another loss in what’s become a little bit of a troubling trend for Mike Tomlin-led Steelers teams. Tomlin has dropped 18 games as Pittsburgh’s head coach when the team is favored by 6.5 points or more. In total, Tomlin’s Steelers are 58-18 in games where they’re favored to win by 6.5 points or more.
Breaking that down into the regular season, Tomlin is 55-16 in the regular season in games where the Steelers are favored by 6.5 points or more. In home games, he’s 40-8 (83.3% winning percentage), with his home regular season record being 38-7 in such games. His lone home playoff loss with his team as touchdown favorites came in the 2018 divisional round, with Pittsburgh losing 45-42 to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
He does have two total playoff losses with the Steelers as at least 6.5 point favorites though, as the team’s Wild Card round loss to the Denver Broncos during the 2011 season came with the team favored by 7.5 points. His total playoff record with Pittsburgh as at least 6.5 point favorites is 3-2.
While a 58-18 record is a 76.3% winning percentage, it pails in comparison to some of his peers. John Harbaugh, who took over the Ravens in 2008, is 70-13 in such games, which is good for an 84.3% winning percentage. Since Bill Belichick took over the Patriots in 2000, he’s been even better, with an 85.8% winning percentage, going 164-24. Since 2007, he’s 122-20, an 85.9% winning percentage.
At home during that same timeframe, Harbaugh is 52-8 (86.8% winning percentage) while Belichick is 76-13 (85.3% winning percentage), both marks that surpass Tomlin’s home winning percentage.
The Steelers have lost games they shouldn’t far too often under Tomlin. While this is the first game since 2020 where the Steelers lost when favored by a touchdown or more, it happened twice in that 2020 season with losses to Washington in Week 13 and Cincinnati in Week 15. Pittsburgh’s worst loss when favored came against the Terrelle Pryor-led Raiders in Week 13 of the 2009 season, losing 27-24 as 15-point favorites.
With Jaylen Warren’s comments yesterday about the Steelers taking the Cardinals too lightly and some of the preparation helping sway that attitude, it’s clear that Tomlin and the coaching staff are a big part of the problem when it comes to the Steelers losing games to inferior opponents. It’s happened far too often under him, and only winning 76% of the time when his team is favored by a touchdown or more isn’t a good reflection on Tomlin.
If you just go back to the 2020 season, the Steelers are only 6-3 in games where they’re favored by at least -6.5. Going back to 2018, they’re 9-4. That’s just a 69.2% winning percentage for Tomlin in games the Steelers are favored to win pretty handily over the last six seasons. The numbers look worse when you compare them to Harbaugh and Belichick, coaches who are considered in the same tier as Tomlin.
If you go back to 2018 for Harbaugh, he’s 31-6 (83.7% winning percentage), while Belichick is 23-6 (79.3% winning percentage). In a lot more games, both coaches only have two more losses while favored by at least -6.5 than Tomlin
Tomlin gets a lot out of his talent and is a good coach, but the team has fallen short against teams they need to beat far too many teams on his watch. It’s also not as if the Steelers are blowing out these teams when they do play, as the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread 41 times under Tomlin as -6.5 point favorites. That’s 53.9% of the time, which isn’t a good statistic. Since 2018, the Steelers are just 4-10 when it comes to covering games as touchdown favorites. So if you want some unsolicited betting advice, bet against Pittsburgh when they’re favored by at least a touchdown.
But from a football perspective, it’s an issue that needs to be fixed. The Steelers can’t continue to play down to their opponents and expect to have continual success. The loss to Arizona lowered their playoff odds to the point where a loss in either of the next two games will put them in a perilous position when it comes to making the postseason. And it’s because they once again lost a game they shouldn’t have. Beating teams the Steelers should beat easily is the one major flaw on Tomlin’s record, and it’s one that needs to be corrected going forward.
