The Pittsburgh Steelers are bad on third down. Not just bad, but nearly “this century bad.” So bad it’s hard to believe. Let’s let the numbers do the talking.
Through 13 games this season, Pittsburgh ranks 25th in third down success rate, sitting at 34.8 percent. While that’s not entirely in the league’s basement, it’s an ugly number for the Steelers. Via Pro Football Reference, which has conversion rates dating back to 1999, the Steelers’ mark so far this season is the second-worst of that time. Here’s the “top” three (i.e. their three worst seasons, including 2023’s current pace).
Steelers Worst Third Down Offenses (1999-Present)
1. 34.4 percent (2019)
2. 34.8 percent (2023)
3. 35.4 percent (2005)
They’re just tenths of a percentage ahead of 2019 which had the excuse of QB Ben Roethlisberger’s season-ending injury along with, and people tend to forget this, a host of other players lost, too. RB James Conner and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster also missed chunks of time, and parts of the offense were “led” by the likes of WR Tevin Jones and RB Kerrith Whyte Jr. They had a valid excuse for being bad.
Somehow, the 2005 Super Bowl-winning team shows up on this list. Only Pittsburgh.
But it doesn’t let 2023 off the hook. To convert on third-down barely one-third of the time is not a winning formula. And despite their poor offense overall, they’re not in third-and-absolutely-forever. Per PFR, the Steelers average 6.9 yards to go on third down, which ranks tied for 15th across the NFL. Not great, but far from the league’s worst, which creeps up over eight yards. They’re merely average on third down yards needed but terrible in actually converting.
Examining things more closely, the Steelers are especially struggling on third and medium. They’re still below average on third and long (21st) and third and short (23rd), but on third and 4-6 yards, they’re tied for 27th in success rate at 36.4 percent. Compare that to the first-place Buffalo Bills at over 64 percent, doing laps around Pittsburgh’s production.
In their two miserable losses to the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots, the Steelers’ third-down offense bottomed out. They converted just 28 percent of their chances, going 7-of-25. Again, yards needed wasn’t the issue. In fact, the Steelers needed, on average, just 5.9 yards on third down the last two weeks, second-best in the league. And yet, they have the 27th-best conversion rate of the last two weeks. It’s hard to even wrap your head around those numbers being at such odds with each other. But they are.
That’s going to have to change in the final four games. And change can happen quickly. Pittsburgh went from a poor third-down offense in the first half of last year to the NFL’s best after their 2022 bye week, finishing the year with the seventh-best conversion rate in football. Ideally, Pittsburgh can avoid third downs more than they have. It means the offense is producing, but knowing the teeth-pulling required to get this unit on the board, they’re going to have to convert on “weighty downs” a whole lot better than they are. If they get any worse, they’ll truly be historically bad.
