As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys to the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 17 game against the Seattle Seahawks.
My prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Pittsburgh Gets Situational
Both teams in this one, Pittsburgh and Seattle, aren’t good situationally. They have two of the worst third-down offenses and defenses, while the Seahawks and Steelers have ugly red zone offenses. The only saving grace is Pittsburgh’s stellar red zone defense.
But the winner of this game is probably the one who posts strong situational numbers. Pittsburgh only seems to have a successful third-down offense against Cincinnati. If they hover even around 50 percent in this one and finish drives off with touchdowns, say going 2-for-3 in the red zone, that’s a winning formula.
2. Noah Fant Doesn’t Make Plays Over The Middle
We’ll talk more about Seattle’s pass-game threats below, but Fant is part of that group. He doesn’t headline it, and after a hot first month of the year, he’s gone quiet. But you gotta think Seattle will target Fant a couple of times given his success against Pittsburgh in the past and the Steelers’ injuries down the middle. He’s athletic and can stretch the field, and will be a chore if any of the team’s inside linebackers are on him. It might be an assignment for Eric Rowe, but that can limit coverage options.
3. Power Run Game Works
Pittsburgh has to run the ball to win. There’s no other option, even with QB Mason Rudolph starting and sparking the passing game. The best way to do that against the Seahawks’ one-gapping defensive line is generally a downhill style, but the power run game with pullers and down blocks has been most effective. The Steelers have used gap schemes far more often than they did to start the year and have largely had success with it.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Lack Of CB Depth Gets Exposed
It isn’t just WR D.K. Metcalf versus CB Joey Porter Jr. Seattle has a deep group of eligibles for QB Geno Smith to target beyond him. Porter might be able to handle Metcalf. It’s a marquee matchup. But can Levi Wallace and Chandon Sullivan, both seeing more action with Patrick Peterson likely starting at safety again, handle Jaxson Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett? It’ll be a tough task.
Credit to those guys, Sullivan especially, for stepping in last week, but these are matchups that favor Seattle. Pittsburgh will have to show they can meet the moment in a must-win game.
2. Mason Rudolph Comes Back To Earth
An obvious one. Rudolph put on a great performance against the Bengals, the best by a Steelers quarterback in two years. There’s no debating that. But it was just one game, and Seattle will prove to be a tougher task. On the road, a healthier and stronger defense overall, and the Seahawks have a better idea of what to expect with Rudolph now playing a full game that didn’t come years ago.
Anyone can have one good game. Staying power is what matters. He has to walk the same line between aggressiveness and playing it “safe” while playing the position from the pocket like he did well last Saturday. Pittsburgh’s line needs to protect him well and defend wide rushers better than they did against the Indianapolis Colts, who used similar fronts on passing downs.
3. History Wins Out
Which means Seattle wins. While history is just that, Pittsburgh has an ugly track record in Seattle, 1-7 there all-time, with their last win coming in 1983. More specifically and present-day, Seattle is a tough place to play with their 12th man. The Steelers will have to handle communicating in that environment, and they’ve struggled in raucous places this season like Cleveland and Cincinnati. They’ll have to handle being out West and being in a seriously hostile place to play.
Prediction
Steelers: 21
Seahawks: 20
Season Prediction Record
8-7
