Today I wanted to look at and provide NFL data for explosive (20 yards or more) and negative plays (zero yards or less), considering these end-of-the-spectrum plays can make or break game outcomes. Let’s dive right in, with rates for offenses:
As anticipated, the Pittsburgh Steelers offense has been below league average in both. Their 5.3 explosive play rate ranks 22nd league-wide, while their negative play rate comes in at 34.6 percent, for an even lower 26th rank.
While Pittsburgh’s 43 explosive plays have not been nearly enough (T-25th) as they’ve struggled to stay on the field as well (fifth-least), the even bigger issue has been negative plays, with these issues compounding for very poor results overall and landing them with less than desirable offenses on the chart. Also seeing some of the strongest teams in the NFL atop the negative play results point to what Pittsburgh should strive for on offense.
Let’s look at a weekly view of explosive and negative play counts for more context, with dots the results league-wide, the red line Pittsburgh’s negative play counts, and green line explosive play counts. The blue line is the most explosive plays in a game league-wide to give perspective to the Steelers’ green line, and the orange line the least negative plays in a game with the same context for Pittsburgh’s red line:
Here we see a lot of valuable information, starting with the high number of negative plays for Pittsburgh’s offense this season (red line). The first two games of 2023 included the most negative plays, with 29 in Week Two but still able to come away with the divisional victory against Cleveland, but no such luck with 25 negative plays in the season opener against San Francisco.
In the first five games of the season, the offense had 20 or more negative plays four times and was very lucky to come out of that stretch with a winning record. They were able to lean on a hot start from the defense, which has cooled off due to a multitude of reasons (more on this to come).
Since the bye week, if Pittsburgh’s offense has 20 or more negative plays, they’ve lost. In the other five games, it’s been 16 negative plays or less, and a 4-1 record. High correlation to the outcome of games, and hopefully the Steelers can limit negative plays that have equated to the ultimate goal of winning moving forward.
Now for explosive play takeaways. The Steeler’s offense has five or more explosive plays just three times this season, each leading to wins, and ironically within the AFC North: Week Two (Cleveland), Week Five (Baltimore), and Week 12 (Cincinnati). The latter was Pittsburgh’s most explosive plays in a 2023 game, with six.
Much has changed in the three-game losing streak since, but here’s to hoping QB Mason Rudolph’s first start of 2023 can near their most successful explosive play outing in the Week 16 rematch (optimistic, I know), and particularly staying under 20 negative plays on offense, with that number sinking the team as of late.
Now let’s look at defensive results:
Two AFC North teams fare very well on defense, Baltimore and Cleveland, the latter “breaking” the visual with an impressive negative play rate. This week’s challenge is Cincinnati, who land on the flip side on defense, mainly with the worst 7.8 explosive play rate in the NFL. Hopefully, this holds true, and the Steelers offense can cash in.
Pittsburgh’s defense lands above league average in negative play rate, providing these impact plays at a 33.7 clip, ranking very well at ninth in the NFL. The other side of the coin in 2023 has been explosive plays allowed though, at a 6.7 rate that ranks 26th.
The defense has been on the field at the seventh highest rate league-wide, making their negative play result all the more impressive, but part of the equation in their susceptibility to allowing 60 explosive plays as well (seventh most).
Here’s the weekly view to see how things have trended:
Several things stand out, most recently cutting down on explosive plays allowed (encouragingly), but also not providing stops at or behind the line of scrimmage as consistent of a clip.
The last five games, Pittsburgh has held offenses under five explosive plays, but unfortunately hasn’t equated to wins (1-4 record). Some of this has to do with being down on the scoreboard, and the opposition able to play more conservatively at times.
The biggest issue on the defensive side of the ball in this stretch has been negative plays, falling off a cliff after the Week 11 loss to Cleveland (27). Pittsburgh eked out the victory in the first Bengals matchup in Week 12, despite their lowest negative play total of just 11. This reemphasizes what explosive plays on offense can overcome (Steeler’s offense had a season-high six explosive plays).
Comparatively, Pittsburgh was fairly consistent the first ten games, sans the Week One and Four blowout losses to the 49ers and Texans, when they forced under 20 negative plays. When that has occurred, the Steelers have a 1-5 record, with the only victory coming against the Bengals. The Week Seven-Ten stretch is also telling, when Pittsburgh’s defense allowed five or more explosive plays in each, but also provided strong negative play results, paired with limiting negative plays on offense sans their one loss in the span.
Hopefully, Pittsburgh’s defense can provide more in that department given the track record, and Cincinnati’s offense gelling as backup QB Jake Browning has been improving with more playing time. The first matchup in Week 12 was his first start, and hopefully, the Steelers’ defense is ready for a likely better showing from their offense this time around. Several key injuries, particularly at the safety and linebacker positions for Pittsburgh have impacted recent downtrends.
Hopefully, Pittsburgh is up for the Week 16 challenge, and can perform well in these aspects, which have impacted game outcomes greatly.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
