If you’ve watched the Pittsburgh Steelers offense this season, you’re aware of the issues: sustaining drives, scoring points, and ultimately winning games consistently. Most recently, the Steelers offense went 7-of-25 (28 percent) on third downs en route to their two painful losses against 2-10 teams. I’ve highlighted the team’s issues on third down, and unfortunately they reared their ugly head in the historic losing streak.
Today I wanted to look at an element of this that has occurred often, three-and-out drives, and see how the Pittsburgh Steelers have fared in comparison to the rest of the NFL in 2023.
First, here are total success rates on three-and-out drives this season (first- and second-down plays with kneels, and aborted/penalty plays excluded):
Here we see that Pittsburgh’s offense ranks in the middle of the pack at 17th on three-and-out successful play rates, at 11.7-percent. In the less-than-desirable situation, this result is actually quite surprising considering how it has felt watching the team this season.
Let’s add some situational context by down:
- 1st Down 3-And-Out Success Rates = six yards, or >= 40-percent of the needed yardage.
- 2nd Down 3-And-Out Success Rates = six yards, or >= 50-percent of the needed yardage.
Very telling visual. The Steelers have actually been quite good on first down compared to the rest of the league, with a 33.3 percent first-down success rate on three-and-out drives, tying for sixth best. The train derails on second down though, where Pittsburgh has a lowly 17.4 percent success rate that drops it all the way to 28th in the NFL. Second down has been a bugaboo this season on both sides of the ball and a big reason why the team has struggled on third downs. Last week was a bit better, but even with more manageable third downs, Pittsburgh struggled to convert in the passing game.
In Week 14, 2-of-6 (25 percent) on third and manageable (<= five yards), including poor accuracy, decisions, and play calling, and 1-of-5 (20 percent) on third and long (seven or more yards). This included two sacks, an interception, a near pick, and the conversion on a 3rd and 10 flat route after the wow hurdle and stretch by TE Connor Heyward on a great individual effort.
Also painful: all four fails came in the fourth quarter. One-of-three on fourth down in the final quarter as well, two face-palming schemes/results in the pass game, and the lone conversion on a 3rd-and-1 QB sneak.
Extremely rough results in QB Mitch Trubisky’s first start in 2023, and they must improve to hopefully get back into the win column. To help illustrate this further, here is a chart of three-and-out success rates by half this season:
This chart shows the Steelers as a well above-average second-half team in 2023, with a 14.5 total three-and-out success rate that ranks seventh best. Staggering difference in 2023 compared to Trubisky’s last outing, emphasizing second down and second halves as the big areas that must improve from last game.
The visual above also shows a big recurring issue for the Steelers, regardless of who is the quarterback or coaches, first-half success: 10 percent (21st). This included going 0-of-5 on third down to start the Week 14 game, three of which were three and outs, and the only conversion the aforementioned QB sneak. Hopefully this improves from the start compared to last game, which deservingly warranted boos from the home crowd.
The next visual gives context to the totality of three-and-out plays this year. The bar is total plays on three-and out-drives; the orange square is first-down successes; the red square = second-down successes; and the dots are total successful plays on three-and-out drives:
The first thing that stands out is the quantity of plays, with some of the most successful teams seeing three-and-out situations the least. In comparison Pittsburgh’s offense has the eighth-most three-and-out plays in the NFL. This, first and foremost, highlights needing to do a better job of not getting in the situation in the first place. Can’t change that once it’s happened though.
The dots show the Steelers’ 24 total successful plays, tied for sixth most in quantity, but it is important to recall that they tie for 17th in success rate. The squares are very telling, in my humble opinion, with the red square (second down) more ideally being closer to the dot, meaning more ideal third-down situations, even though we’re looking at failed drives.
Sixteen first-down successes rank third in the NFL in quantity, along with tying for sixth in success rate. Just eight second-down successes (T-21st), for an even worse 28th-ranked success rate, which is the more important down in the situation.
This emphasizes second down as the critical data point in today’s article, and unfortunately the primary area for Pittsburgh to improve on. Hopefully Trubisky and company are able to do just that on Saturday against the Indianapolis Colts.
Here’s a table of the data to wrap a bow on it all:
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
