With two weeks left in the regular season, the Pittsburgh Steelers are still in the AFC playoff race. They’re still on the fringes, on the outside looking in, but with Saturday’s win over the Cincinnati Bengals, they have hope. And a path to the postseason. With, depending on the source, 13-to-17 percent odds of making it, the Steelers still have a mountain to climb. But they can see the path forward and despite those daunting odds, the road is clearer than you might think.
So how can Pittsburgh make the playoffs? There are a couple different scenarios. But here’s the most likely. The first box to check in figuring out a way to get the Steelers postseason bound. And it’s simpler than you might think.
Pittsburgh Steelers’ Playoff Path
1. Pittsburgh Wins Out
2. Jacksonville Lose/Tie One Game
3. Indianapolis and Houston Don’t Finish With 10 Wins
And here’s why all three things have a serious chance of happening.
1. Pittsburgh Wins Out
Maybe the most unlikely of the three playoff prongs. Winning out puts the Steelers at 10-7 for the season. Doing so will mean going on the road to beat the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17 and the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18. Seattle is coming off a wild Sunday win over the Tennessee Titans and has been a tough team to figure out this season. The Seahawks have rattled off big wins, beating the Detroit Lions, 37-31, and the Philadelphia Eagles, 20-17, while also getting blown out three times this year, putting them at 8-7.
If Pittsburgh can get past Seattle, it makes Week 18 critical. All eyes will turn to Baltimore and its AFC standing. Will the Ravens have the No. 1 seed locked up? Will they even have the division locked up? Cleveland’s weekend win heading into the Ravens’ Monday night showdown against the San Francisco 49ers means the AFC North hasn’t been decided. But if the Ravens have nothing to play for in Week 18, will they sit their starters? Will John Harbaugh give Pittsburgh a clearer path to the playoffs? Talk about another storyline layered on top of the Steelers/Ravens rivalry.
2. Jacksonville Loses/Ties One Game
Mired in a four-game losing streak, this scenario looks a lot more likely than it did a month ago. At the beginning of December, the Jaguars were viewed as a potential No. 1 seed. Now, they’re in danger of missing out on the postseason entirely. They don’t have the world’ most daunting schedule, hosting the Carolina Panthers in Week 17 before travelling to Tennessee to take on the Titans in the finale. But with their ugly play and mounting injuries to QB Trevor Lawrence, losing (or tying) one of their final two games is a distinct possibility.
Assuming they lose one of their final two, it would put them at 9-8 for the season. The Steelers winning out pushes them to 10-7, giving them the record advantage and avoiding the issue of the Jaguars beating them earlier in the season.
Essentially, the more the top three teams in the AFC South lose – Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Houston – the better it is for Pittsburgh. Steeler Nation, you’re about to become awfully big Tennessee Titans fans. Quick, go forgive Joe Nedney.
3. Indianapolis *And* Houston Don’t Finish With 10 Wins
An important piece of the puzzle but one that will take care of itself. With the Colts losing to the Atlanta Falcons and Texans losing to the Cleveland Browns yesterday, they both sit at 8-7 for the season. And because Indy and Houston play each other in Week 18, they both can’t reach 10 wins. One of them could, sure, but it’s impossible for both of them to finish 10-7. This prong becomes a mere formality so long as Pittsburgh wins out.
If all three of these scenarios happen, the Steelers would end the year 10-7 and finish as the AFC’s seventh seed. They would travel to play the AFC’s No. 2 seed on Wild-Card weekend. Who that team would be is harder to project. Based on a couple different scenarios, it’d most likely either be the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, or a third matchup against Baltimore and the second in as many weeks (which also happened to Pittsburgh in 2020 against the Cleveland Browns – hopefully this time has different results).
Again, this is not the only path. We’re starting with the most realistic and the simplest and working our way from here. And if you take a step back and look at things, it wouldn’t be that shocking to see all this happen.
