The players are treating it like a playoff game, considering what’s at stake for both teams in Saturday’s matchup at 4:30 p.m. at Lucas Oil Stadium between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts.
Much like a playoff game, Saturday’s matchup between the two 7-6 teams fighting for an AFC Wild Card spot will come down a couple of results in key matchups in all three phases.
It’s good on good Saturday, as both teams runs the football well and have stopped the run at a strong clip in recent weeks. Special teams are also key for both sides as the two franchises sport great kickers and some serious special teams aces who can change games in the blink of an eye.
A pivotal game with key matchups in all three phases. Saturday is shaping up to be a great game. Let’s take a look at my four key matchups to watch between the Steelers and Colts.
Steelers OLB Alex Highsmith vs. Colts LT Bernhard Raimann
Cleared from concussion protocol after suffering a neck injury last Thursday against the Patriots and entering the protocol a day later, Steelers outside linebacker Alex Highsmith has a tall task in front of him on Saturday — literally.
Fellow outside linebacker T.J. Watt is going to see a ton of attention on the other side as the Colts will undoubtedly give rookie right tackle Blake Freeland plenty of help. That will leave Highsmith in a lot of one-on-one matchups against Colts second-year left tackle Bernhard Raimann. The tight end-turned-offensive tackle in college at Central Michigan has been quite the find for the Colts.
In 782 snaps, Raimann grades out at a 79.2 from Pro Football Focus, including a 78.4 in pass protection and a 72.2 against the run. In nearly 500 pass-blocking snaps, Raimann has allowed just 28 pressures and four sacks. He has been solid most of the season, but he struggled last week against Cincinnati’s Trey Hendrickson, allowing five pressures and two sacks.
Now he gets Highsmith, who is just as good as Hendrickson. Highsmith has six sacks on the season and 51 pressures. The sack numbers might not be there overall, but he is a dominant pass rusher. Raimann has great size and length, and he held up very well last season against the Steelers and Highsmith, allowing just two pressures and one sack in 64 snaps, though that sack from Highsmith came at a pivotal point late in the fourth quarter.
This matchup will go a long way towards determining the outcome Saturday, for better or for worse.
Steelers ILBs vs. Colts TE Will Mallory
The Steelers have really struggled against opposing tight ends this season. Names like Trey McBride, Hunter Henry, Luke Musgrave and Evan Engram have had a lot of success against the Steelers. On the year, the Steelers have allowed 66 receptions on 95 targets for 637 yards and five touchdowns to tight ends.
Now, they’ll have to face off against a relatively unknown tight end across the league who has come on very strong for the Colts: Will Mallory.
In the last three weeks, Mallory has nine receptions for 80 yards and is coming off of a five-catch, 46-yard game against the Bengals one week ago. He’s developed great chemistry with quarterback Gardner Minshew II and has come up big for the Colts in key spots.
He’ll have an advantageous matchup Saturday against the Steelers and their inside linebackers in Elandon Roberts, Mykal Walker and Blake Martinez. Walker struggled the last two weeks against McBride and Henry, and Roberts and Martinez aren’t exactly coverage linebackers. The Steelers might need to utilize Minkah Fitzpatrick more on tight ends as it’s been a problem area for the Steelers, but the Colts have plenty of weapons offensively for the Steelers to worry about to afford Pittsburgh putting Fitzpatrick on a guy like Mallory.
The Steelers’ inside linebackers have to step up in coverage Saturday, period. Or you’ll be hearing Will Mallory’s name a lot.
Steelers CB Patrick Peterson vs. Colts WR Josh Downs
This is the matchup that worries me the most, not Joey Porter Jr. against Michael Pittman Jr., or the Colts’ run game against the Steelers’ run defense. This one right here: Patrick Peterson against Josh Downs in the slot. It’s kept me up at night.
Peterson, to his credit, has played much better in recent weeks, while Downs has seemingly hit a rookie wall. But it’s a very favorable matchup for the Colts rookie receiver. Downs was one of the best route runners in the draft class coming out of North Carolina, and he hasn’t disappointed in the NFL.
So far this season, Downs has 54 receptions for 612 yards and two touchdowns. He has just six receptions for 46 yards in his last two games though. That could change Saturday. Downs is an exceptional route runner who is extremely shifty. He has great hands, too, and creates a ton of separation on his routes when asked to work a bit further downfield. He’s at his best when his average depth of target is around 10 yards downfield.
Downs has a 71.3 grade from PFF on the season and has seen 338 snaps out of the slot. He averages 3.3 yards of separation per route run, too, per Next Gen Stats. He’s a dangerous player and is the exact type of receiver that has given Peterson issues this season: small, fast, great route runner. Add the abilities out of the slot and it’s a matchup that I’m worried about, one that could have real game-changing implications.
Steelers ST Coordinator Danny Smith vs. Colts ST Coordinator Brian Mason
This is like the standoff at the OK Corral when it comes to the two special teams coordinators in this matchup.
Mason is having one heck of a season and saw his special teams unit block two punts two weeks ago against Tennessee, returning one for a touchdown to help the Colts win that game. Smith and the Steelers have blocked two punts this season, too, with Miles Killebrew blocking one in Week Five against the Ravens and then one last week against the Patriots.
Smith and Mason also have two great kickers to deploy for their respective teams in Chris Boswell and Matt Gay, though the Colts have the clear upper hand in the punting game with Rigoberto Sanchez compared to Pressley Harvin III.
If this is going to be the low-scoring, tight football game many imagine it being, special teams are going to be crucial. The Steelers have struggled with penalties under Smith the last few seasons, and it’s been a big problem this season. Starting field position is a major problem for Pittsburgh as well.
The Steelers need Smith’s units to outperform Mason’s, plain and simple. Doing so should help lead to a Steelers win. If not, it could be a long day at Lucas Oil Stadium.
