For all the stats that can factor into the outcome of games, it obviously and ultimately boils down to the scoreboard. Today, I wanted to look at the 2023 Pittsburgh Steelers in this regard, which has been a struggle much of the season on offense and, at times, on defense. Let’s dive right in, looking across the league for comparative context.
First, offenses drive numbers and plays per drive:
From an opportunity standpoint, Pittsburgh’s offense has had 135 drives to date, which is above the NFL average at 12th-most. A painful truth is sustaining them, though, averaging only 5.5 plays per drive, ranking a lowly 30th and besting only the Giants and Jets, who each hold a 4-8 record.
Landing near the Steelers is the next challenge, another 2-10 team in the New England Patriots. They are 11th and tied for 27th, emphasizing how lucky Pittsburgh is to be 7-5 and currently in the playoff picture.
Next, here are the number of red zone attempts and red zone touchdowns, seeing how offenses have done creating and capitalizing on the end of their drives:
Oof. The Steelers’ offense is at the bottom left, tying for 30th in red zone attempts, and 31st in red zone touchdowns. Seeing Pittsburgh among the five teams on the lower left is painful, and the most wins still being four sans Pittsburgh points to things needing to change in a hurry, or hopes of the post-season could sour.
Week 12 was a major issue as well, going just 1-of-3 in the red zone, and the one conversion with the game well at hand in the stunning 24-10 loss. This included Pittsburgh’s defense allowing the Arizona Cardinals to go 3-for-3 on red-zone touchdowns, pain. Hopefully, this improves against the Patriots, who rank last in the NFL in red-zone attempts on offense.
We’re likely in for a low-scoring affair if history repeats itself, but hopefully, Pittsburgh learned a lesson in taking teams too lightly, and they come out hungry for redemption Thursday night.
Let’s see how scoring offenses have looked from a rate perspective, using points per drive and red zone touchdown rates:
Pittsburgh has just 1.32 points per drive and a 42.3 red zone touchdown rate on offense, each ranking 29th through Week 13. Poor all around, with their only above-average mark number of drives, something they don’t even control.
This visual highlights a difference in the Week 14 offensive matchup, with New England among the NFL’s worst at 1.09 points per play (30th) as well, but capitalizing at a league-average 54.2 rate (16th) when getting to the red zone with touchdowns. Here’s to hoping the defense isn’t a victim of that statistic in Week 14.
Speaking of which, let’s look at the data from a defensive perspective:
Cleveland’s defense “breaks” the chart, on the field for the highest number of drives (154) and by far the best play per drive number of 4.4, a whole play above all other teams on average, wow.
Pittsburgh’s defense lands much closer to the NFL average with 134 drives faced, and allowed 6.1 plays per drive, each tying for 20th. This has definitely trended negatively as of late, in most recent memory against Arizona, including the excruciating 14-play drive allowed before halftime, also ending in a red zone touchdown.
Hopefully, Week 14 is a get-right game, against the Patriots offense. Their defense has faced 136 drives (22nd) and allowed 5.8 plays per drive (10th), which could stifle the hopes for the Steelers offense to look much better in these terms.
Now for the defenses red zone attempts and touchdowns allowed:
The Steelers’ defense is encouragingly above average in totality this season, leading to optimism that Week 12 was an outlier. They’ve allowed 35 red zone attempts (T-ninth) and 16 red zone touchdowns (T-fifth). Hopefully, they get back to these ways in Week 14.
By their lonesome on the bottom left are the Cardinals, the NFL’s worst defense, with a whopping 57 allowed red zone attempts and 33 touchdowns allowed. If Pittsburgh’s offense couldn’t find success against them, it’s difficult to be optimistic against New England, who have the exact same marks as Pittsburgh’s defense: 35 attempts (T-ninth) and 16 touchdowns (T-fifth).
To close, here are points per drive, and red zone rates on defense:
Once again, we see the Steelers and Patriots defenses on eerily similar points of the chart, above-average units from a scoring standpoint. New England has allowed 1.64 points per drive, sixth best league-wide, with Pittsburgh at 1.69 (T-seventh), and they tie each other with the sixth-best red zone touchdown rate allowed (45.7).
With all these things in mind, I hope Pittsburgh’s defense can get back to holding teams down on the scoreboard (17 points or less in five games this season). The offense will take all the help they can get, and knock-on-wood can buck their painful scoreboard outputs in 2023 that include 16 or fewer in the last three games. Tough ask sans QB Kenny Pickett, but one can hope.
Thanks for reading, and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
