Though the Pittsburgh Steelers climbed the playoff ladder Sunday, moving from the eighth to sixth seed, their odds to play beyond January 7 remain low.
According to The New York Times/The Upshot playoff predictor model, the Steelers have just a 26 percent chance of making the postseason. Virtually the only way they’ll do that is being a Wild Card team, though you don’t need a calculator to figure that out. The Baltimore Ravens are 10-3 and in firm control of the division.
Though the rest of the AFC North took care of business this week, keeping the Steelers in third place while the Cincinnati Bengals matched Pittsburgh’s 7-6 record (the Steelers hold tiebreaker), two games fell their way around the AFC. The Indianapolis Colts were blown out by the Cincinnati Bengals 34-14. It creates one heck of a showdown on Saturday between Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. The winner will see their playoff chances soar. The loser might effectively be done. Indy’s running game was absent but there’s at least a chance RB Jonathan Taylor returns, though odds currently put things below 50 percent.
Elsewhere, the Houston Texans took their lumps in a brutal blowout defeat 30-6 to Zach Wilson and the New York Jets. Worst yet, QB C.J. Stroud entered concussion protocol, making his status uncertain for next Sunday. Unfortunately, that game comes against the Cleveland Browns so that loss hurts and helps in all the same ways.
Other models show similar. ESPN’s analytics give Pittsburgh a 34 percent chance of advancing, the second-lowest of any team on this list. The Texans, Colts, and now Buffalo Bills, big winners knocking off the Kansas City Chiefs, all have higher odds than the Steelers.
Prior to their loss to the Arizona Cardinals, the 7-4 Steelers seemed to be on cruise control. Even a lackluster finish likely would’ve been enough to make the postseason. Finishing .500 over their final six would’ve made them 10-7 and probably good enough to capture one of the top seven seeds. Now, the Steelers will have to win three out of their next four to reach that mark. If they finish with just nine wins, they’ll wind up doing plenty of scoreboard watching over the final two weeks.
